Australian aviation coping with growth Krishna Hamal BITRE

Australian aviation – coping with growth Krishna Hamal BITRE Transport Colloquium 18 – 19 June 2008

Total air passenger numbers

Domestic and international passenger numbers

Forecasts: Air passenger movements

Forecasts by airport

Capacity • The existing capacity of major capital city airports may not be sufficient to realise the forecast level of growth in air passenger movements over the next 18 years. • Requires a significant response from airport authorities and airlines to increase their existing capacity. For example: • Introduction of A 380 s • A second parallel runway at Brisbane Airport

Impact of rising fuel prices on air passenger movements Scenario: • The price of fuel increases by 50% from the base case level Impact: • Average annual growth rate declines from 4. 0% to 3. 4% • 333. 4 million (or 9. 9%) fewer passenger movements over the next 18 years

Conclusions • Doubling of passenger numbers by 2026 • Pressure on the capacity of major capital city airports and airlines • Rising fuel prices will adversely affect passenger movement growth

Reference BITRE (2008), Air passenger movements through capital city airports to 2025 -26, Working Paper 72, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics, Canberra. Web address: www. bitre. gov. au