Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference 2011 Arkansas Economic Outlook

Arkansas Economic Forecast Conference 2011 Arkansas Economic Outlook Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR November 2, 2011

Arkansas’ Experience • Arkansas fared relatively well during the recession. . . but the recovery has been faltering.

Arkansas’ Experience • Economic conditions in the U. S. and Arkansas appear to be deteriorating in 2011 … – Waning consumer confidence – Political uncertainty – Gasoline price spike – Spring storms and flooding, summer drought

Topics • Output/GDP • Personal Income • Retail Sales • Real Estate • Labor Markets

GDP by State, 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

GDP by MSA Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Taxable Sales Constructed by the Institute for Economic Advancement using data on sales and use tax collections from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration.

Taxable Sales Source: Oil Price Information Service

Taxable Sales Introducing: Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Taxable Sales Introducing: Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Taxable Sales Source: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Home Sales Source: Arkansas Realtors® Association

Home Sales Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Home Sales Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Home Prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

Home Prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

Home Prices Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Institute for Economic Advancement

Unemployment Rates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unemployment Rates Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Economic Outlook "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. " - Niels Bohr , Nobel prize-winning physicist.

Real GDP

Personal Income Q 4/Q 4 Growth (%) 2010 4. 7 2011 3. 6 2012 5. 1 2013 3. 9

Sales Q 4/Q 4 Growth (%) 2010 5. 8 2011 4. 4 2012 3. 2 2013 2. 0

Home Sales (Pct. Change) 2009 24. 7 K -0. 4% 2010 23. 6 K -4. 4% 2011 23. 4 K -0. 8% 2012 26. 3 K +12. 6% 2013 27. 5 K +4. 3%

Employment Q 4/Q 4 Growth 2009 -5. 64 M -4. 1% 2010 +0. 70 M +0. 5% 2011 +1. 37 M +1. 1% 2012 +1. 26 M +1. 0% 2013 +2. 24 M +1. 7%

Employment Q 4/Q 4 Growth 2009 -37. 9 K -3. 2% 2010 +15. 1 K +1. 3% 2011 +4. 6 K +0. 4% 2012 +15. 3 K +1. 3% 2013 +18. 1 K +1. 5%

Employment Q 4/Q 4 Growth 2009 -37. 0 K -3. 1% 2010 +9. 1 K +0. 8% 2011 -1. 4 K -0. 2% 2012 +15. 3 K +1. 3% 2013 +18. 1 K +1. 5% Including expected revision in 2012

Unemployment End of Year (Q 4) 2010 9. 6 2011 9. 1 2012 8. 8 2013 8. 4

Unemployment End of Year (Q 4) 2010 7. 9 2011 8. 2 2012 7. 9 2013 7. 6

Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: www. arkansaseconomist. com