Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission Racially Polarized Voting Analysis

Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission Racially Polarized Voting Analysis 11/29/2011 1

Presidential Election 2008 1 0. 9 0. 8 Voting Age Population % Voting 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 % Voting Age-Hispanic 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1 2

Gubernatorial Election 2010 1 0. 9 0. 8 Voting Age Population % Voting 0. 7 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5 0. 6 % Voting Age-Hispanic %Voting 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1 3

Sample precinct: • • 40% of the electorate is Hispanic 60% of the electorate is non-Hispanic candidate “A” got 35% of the vote What % of the Hispanic vote did candidate “A” receive? 4

Hispanic Support for Non-Hispanic Candidate A Support for Candidate A 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Hispanic Non-Hispanic Total Votes % for Votes for for Candidate A Candidate B 55% 52% 49% 45% 41% 38% 35% 31% 28% 25% 21% 18% 15% 11% 8% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 200 400 600 800 1, 000 1, 200 1, 400 1, 600 1, 800 2, 000 2, 200 2, 400 2, 600 2, 800 3, 000 3, 200 3, 400 3, 600 3, 800 4, 000 3, 800 3, 600 3, 400 3, 200 3, 000 2, 800 2, 600 2, 400 2, 200 2, 000 1, 800 1, 600 1, 400 1, 200 1, 000 800 600 400 200 0 3, 300 3, 120 2, 940 2, 700 2, 460 2, 280 2, 100 1, 860 1, 680 1, 500 1, 260 1, 080 900 660 480 300 60 0 2, 700 2, 880 3, 060 3, 300 3, 540 3, 720 3, 900 4, 140 4, 320 4, 500 4, 740 4, 920 5, 100 5, 340 5, 520 5, 700 5, 940 6, 000 3, 520 3, 540 3, 500 3, 460 3, 480 3, 500 3, 460 3, 600 3, 800 4, 000 6, 500 6, 480 6, 460 6, 500 6, 540 6, 520 6, 500 6, 540 6, 400 6, 200 6, 000 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 5

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US House of Representatives 2010: District 7 7

Racially Polarized Voting Analysis • Existing Congressional Districts • Draft Congressional Districts • Existing Legislative Districts • Draft Legislative Districts 8