Argument Extensive linkage democratization Low linkage regime outcomes

Argument: � Extensive linkage democratization � Low linkage regime outcomes depends on two factors – incumbents’ organizational power (state and party) and Western leverage � Strong power regime survives � Weak power regime change, but not always democratize

Explaining regime outcomes

Measuring linkage, leverage and organizational power � � � Dimension Linkage Org. Power Leverage 1990 -95 Low High 2008 0, 31 (Low) 2 (Low) High 2012 0, 53 (Med) 5 (Med/High) Low/Med

Implications: � Under medium value of all three dimensions regime is unstable, but it survives. � Considering poor economy performance, growing debt pressure and potential change of Western policy (from engaging to punitive actions) Western leverage is actually larger than it is. � Personalized sanctions are the sort of Western resource which, in case of use could tip the balance in favor of the West

Theory implications and scenarios � Signing AA with Ukraine will increase linkage and western leverage, that may lead to change of power in 2015 and ultimately put Ukraine back on democratization track. � Not signing AA opens up for more uncertainty that may lead to three scenarios: � ‘Hard’ – ‘Belarussization’ – sanctions – instability � ‘Soft’ - concession in return for impunity � ‘Middle-ground’- co-optation of opposition, bargaining with West for legitimizing the ‘stolen’ elections.