Are family changes the cause or consequence of

Are family changes the cause or consequence of poverty? SA 429: Social Exclusion JD Carpentieri 17 Feb 2006

Poverty and child development

Poverty and family type Percentage of children in lone Poverty rate by family type mother households: Two-parent • UK 19% UK 18 • US 15% • Sweden 15% US 17 • Denmark 13% France 8 Lone mother 40 59 25 Sweden 3. 6 4. 5 Denmark 5. 5 11 “Variations in rates of lone motherhood are not an important reason for the variations in child poverty across countries. ” Bradbury et al, The Dynamics of Child Poverty Across 25 Countries

What are the best strategies for fighting child poverty? l l l What if the labour market were taken away from the parents of the poorest 20% of children, and they were forced to rely solely on transfers? Relative poverty rates of the UK, Ireland Oz would all be lower than those in Sweden What percentage of the bottom quintile’s incomes from the labour market? The UK scores lowest, with only 1/4 of this group's income coming from work “In Scandinavia and France… because the state does not feel obliged to draw a firm line between the private sphere of the family and public policy, the problems women face in reconciling paid and unpaid work have been addressed. ” (J Lewis)

A fly in the policy ointment? Who’s having babies? (Births per 1, 000 teens aged 15 -19) Who’s having babies? (US: socio-economic status) 1971 1980 1990 UK 51 31 33 US 66 53 60 France 28 18 9 Sweden 35 16 13 Denmark 29 17 10 l l l Lowest quintile Middle quintile Teenage mums 40% 18% Single mum by age 24 47% 20% High school dropout 34% 16% For middle class, each year of delayed birth adds to likely future earnings For very poor in US (and UK? ), middle class mores are inverted Babies provide human and social capital: many impoverished teens want to have them

What matters more, papa or poverty? l l l Scandinavia and France show that you can have lots of single-parent households without having lots of poverty But do the US and UK show that if you have lots of poverty, you will inevitably have lots of more problematic single-parent families – ie those headed by the poor, young and skill-less? Different approaches in US and UK: the marriage factor? Mayer: money doesn’t matter – Predicts family success – But ignores income from work Is the most important change not the rise in single-parent families, but the rise in workless and work-poor families?

Percentage of lone mums employed: full-time and part-time UK US France Sweden Full-time 17 47 67 41 Part-time 24 13 15 29 Total 41 60 82 70

Unemployment rates by gender Unemployment rates Female Male UK 6. 5% 10. 9 US 7. 1 6. 9 France 12 6. 9 Sweden 2. 5 2. 3 Fulltime UK 17 Parttime 24 Tot al 41 US 47 13 60 Fran 67 ce Swe 41 den 15 82 29 70

Trends in family and work Since 1960 s: Sex without marriage Since 1970 s: Childbearing without a household income

A labour market for mums? Unemployment rates Percentage of mums in paid employment Female Male Full-time Part-time Total UK 6. 5% 10. 9 UK 17 24 41 US 7. 1 6. 9 US 47 13 60 France 12 6. 9 France 67 15 82 Sweden 2. 5 2. 3 Sweden 41 29 70 “Children are generally more likely to be poor when living with a lone mother, but we find that variations in rates of lone motherhood are not an important reason for the variations in child poverty across countries. ” Bradbury et al, The Dynamics of Child Poverty Across 25 Countries

A labour market for mums! Jane Lewis: “Lone mothers in Scandinavian countries and in France have not been categorised as a social problem” l “In the British case, the poverty of lone mothers has much to do with the poverty of their social wage [e. g. quality childcare] compared to so many of their counterparts in other European countries” l “What has been absent is a commitment to the social inclusion of lone-mother families” l

A fly in the policy ointment? Extramarital birthrate Who’s having babies? (Births per 1, 000 teens aged 15 -19) 1960 1970 1980 1990 UK 5% 8 12 28 US 5 11 18 France 6 7 Sweden 11 Denmark 8 1971 1980 1990 UK 51 31 33 28 US 66 53 60 11 30 France 28 18 9 18 40 n/a Sweden 35 16 13 11 33 46 Denmark 29 17 10