AQI Trends in the San Joaquin Valley Evan

AQI Trends in the San Joaquin Valley Evan M. Shipp Air Quality Consulting

SJV Trends Background • Many Days Greater Than 100 AQI and Some Greater than 200 AQI • CARB Air Quality Indicators • SJVAPCD Mid-course Review • SJV Study Agency Trend Analysis • Some Trend Indicators Show Little Progress • Historical Selective Use of Air Quality Indicators

Some SJV Sites Show Little Recent Progress 200 180 Unhealthy 160 Increasing 140 Design Value AQI 120 Unhealthy Sensitive Groups 100 Merced PM 2. 5 Trend Progress Toward Air Quality Health NAAQS Design Value AQI 80 Moderate 60 40 Good 2001 2002 2003 2004 20 End of 3 Year Period 2005 2006 2007 0 2008 2009 AQI Trend (Design Value)

AQI Trends Objectives • Summarize overall decadal (2000 -2009) air quality index trends • Consider meteorology • Corroborate (or not) pollutant specific historical trends analysis • Qualitative health effects inferences • Emission trend inference

Bakersfield and Fresno Number of Days Unhealthful for Sensitive Groups 140 120 100 80 Bakersfield - CA Fresno-1 st 60 40 Preliminary estimate 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Methods • Raw AQI from EPA Data Explorer Website (incomplete for 2010) • 7 Monitoring Sites • PM 2. 5 and Ozone AQI Combined • Meteorologically Adjusted and Unadjusted • Average and Worst Case Statistics • Analyzed for Categorical Changes in AQI Stockton Modesto Merced Fresno. -Clovis Visalia Bakersfield

Meteorological Adjustment of AQI • • • Daily Meteorological Adjustment of AQI Two Season AQI to Meteorology Correlation Winter-Spring (WS), Summer-Fall (SF) Non-linear Correlation Parameters Adjusted to Seasonal Average Meteorology

SJV AQI Correlation to Meteorological Parameters • Summer and Fall (April. October) is 850 mb temperature • Winter and Spring (November-March) is 850 mb-minimum temperature • Correlation pattern appears to be second order • Consistent with other CA analyses

Daily Meteorological Adjustment • AQI Adjusted Daily for Average Meteorological Conditions • AQI adj = AQI measured + (regression prediction AQI with “average weather” – regression prediction AQI with observed weather) • Reduces daily AQI variability and may enhance emissions signal in data

Trends and Exception Events • Wildland fire (Rx burns, wildfire use, wildfire) in many years • Large fires 2000, 2003 and 2008 produced ozone precursor emissions that are a significant part of the entire inventory • Inconsistent exclusion of data effected by wildfire and other exceptional events may skew trends • All AQI data in EPA dataset used for this analysis

Wildland Fire Episodes Frequently Effect Air Quality in SJV June 28, 2008

Daily AQI With Meteorology Adjustment Meteorologically Adjusted Bakersfield AQI (2000 -2009) 250 200 Wildfire (Ozone SIP) RWC, Nitrate PM SIP AQI 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year 2006 2007 2008 2009

Summary of Results

SJV Trend in Top Ten 10 AQI

Bakersfield Average AQI Trend 100 Bakersfield Average Air Quality Index Weather Adjusted Trend 90 80 70 60 Average of AQI Average of adjusted AQI 50 Linear(Average of AQI ) 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Bakersfield AQI Top 10 Trend 200 Bakersfield AQI - Top 10 Average 180 160 140 120 Average Top 10 AQI Met Adj 100 Linear(Average Top 10 AQI) 80 60 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Merced Top Ten AQI Trend 160 Merced AQI - Top 10 Average 140 120 100 80 Average Top 10 AQI 60 Average Top 10 AQI Met Adj Linear(Average Top 10 AQI) 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

What Have You Done for Us Lately? Trend In Meteorologically Adjusted Average AQI for 5 and 10 Years AQI Points Per Year lia sa Vi is lo v C no es ie sf er B ak Fr ld d er M es od M ce to n to oc k St -1 Si -0. 5 te 0 -1. 5 -2 -2. 5 -3 -3. 5 -4 -4. 5 5 year weather adjusted 10 year weather adjusted

Does the Change in SJV AQI Data Variability Indicate Source Reductions?

AQI Standard Deviation Trend Merced AQI Standard Deviation 45 40 35 30 Sum of Std. Dev of AQI 25 Sum of Std. Dev of aqi adjusted 20 Linear(Sum of Std. Dev of AQI ) 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Trend in Standard Deviation May Imply that Local Sources Have Been Controlled (e. g. – Residential Wood Combustion)

Fresno AQI Standard Deviation Trend 45 40 35 30 Std. Dev of AQI 25 Std. Dev of adjusted AQI Linear(Std. Dev of AQI ) 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Bakersfield AQI Standard Deviation Trend 45 40 35 30 Std. Dev of AQI 25 Std. Dev of adjusted AQI Linear(Std. Dev of AQI ) 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Conclusions • Improvement in AQI over last decade • Highest and average AQI decreasing • Meteorological adjustment accelerates trend toward better air quality • Declining standard deviation of AQI indicates control of near field sources • Analysis corroborates historical analyses • Consistent exceptional events exclusions

50 PM 2. 5 Concentration (ug/m 3) Comparison of 2000 -01 and 2010 -11 PM 2. 5 Seasons 200 PM 2. 5 Data (Basin Maximum) 45 150 40 100 35 50 30 20 0 Meteorology Data -50 15 -100 10 -150 5 eb -F b 28 Fe eb 21 - -F b 14 Fe 7 - an 31 -J an 24 -J an -J 17 an -J n 10 Ja 3 - ec D ec 27 - D ec 20 - D ec 13 - D 6 - ov N ov 29 - N ov 22 - N 15 - N ov -200 8 - N ov 0 1 - 850 mb temperature at Oakland 25 2000 -2001 850 temperature 2010 -2011 850 temperature 2000 -2001 PM 2. 5 2010 -2011 PM 2. 5 NAAQS

Selected References • • Evan M. Shipp, Air Quality Index Trends in the San Joaquin Valley, December 2010 Shawn Ferreria and Evan Shipp, Historical Meteorological Analysis in Support of the 2003 San Joaquin Valley PM 10 State Implementation Plan Final Report, January 2003 L. C. Larsen, R. A. Bradley, and G. L. Honcoop, A New Method of Characterizing the Variability of Air Quality-Related Indicators, Transactions of the AWMA Specialty Conference on Tropospheric Ozone, Los Angeles, CA, 1990. Minitab Inc. (2007), Meet Minitab 15 San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District, Draft 2010 Ozone Mid. Course Review, May 2010 Evan M. Shipp, Forecasting of High PM 10 Days in Northern San Luis Obispo County, Applicable to Implementing Residential Wood Combustion Controls, Proceedings of Air Waste Management Association 89 th Annual Meeting, 1996 USEPA, A Guide To Air Quality and Your Health, www. epa. gov/airnow

Thanks • Funding – International Sustainable Systems Research Center (ISSRC) – Merced/Mariposa County Asthma Coalition (MMCAC) • Corroborators o Mary-Michal Rawling, MMCAC o Nicole Davis, ISSRC