Approved for Public Release Distribution Unlimited 14 0755

Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14 -0755 Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS Mike Hadjimichael, Ph. D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014

|2| Flight Operations Risk Assessment System Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool

|3| A Little History § Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997 § US Naval Research Laboratory § EVA Airways § MITRE Corporation

|4| Publication SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS Aero. Safety World November 2013 DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL

|5| Benefits § Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment § Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index § Full explanation and breakdown of risk components § Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation

|6| Levels of Use • Corporate Management • Safety Department • Dispatch, Crew

|7| How does it look? Dispatcher Reviews & Notifies ALERT! Safety Manager Central Server calculates Risk Index Supporting Operations Databases

|8| Input § Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: – Crew Factors – Sector (City-pair) Factors – Aircraft Factors

|9| Input § Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories: – Crew Factors……. Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System – Sector (City-pair) Factors……. Airport databases – Aircraft Factors……. Maintenance databases

| 10 | Output § Risk Index 10. 0 – Ranges from 1. 0 to 10. 0 – Relative score – Compare to baseline (average) 1. 0 § Critical Parameter identification – Identify actionable over-limit parameters

| 11 | Operational Example EVA Airways Taipei, Taiwan 100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival 3 flights/day get 2 nd level review

| 12 | FORAS Interface (EVA example)

| 13 | Example: Single fleet, single route trend

| 14 | Example: Single fleet comparison

| 15 | What are the critical parameters?

| 16 | Critical Parameters – City pair

| 17 | Critical Parameter – One fleet

| 18 | Method

| 19 | Knowledge-based System Experts Forensic Event Analyses Performance Data Studies and Statistics

| 20 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk Crew Risk City-Pair Risk Aircraft Risk

| 21 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk City-Pair Risk Crew Risk Communication Experience Stressors Length Airport Aircraft Risk En-route MEL Suitability

| 22 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk City-Pair Risk Crew Risk Communicati on … Experience … … Stressors … … Length … … Aircraft Risk Airport … … En-route … … MEL … … Suitability … … …

| 23 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk City-Pair Risk Crew Risk Communicati on … Experience … . . . Stressors … . . Length … . . . Airport … . . . Aircraft Risk … En-route … … . . MEL … … Suitability … … . . .

| 24 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk City-Pair Risk Crew Risk Communicati on … Experience … . . . Stressors … . . Length … . . . Airport … . . . Aircraft Risk … En-route … … . . MEL … … Suitability … … . . .

| 25 | Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors Approach & Landing Risk City-Pair Risk Crew Risk Communicati on … Experience … . . . Stressors … . . Length … … Aircraft Risk Airport … … En-route … … MEL … Computation Flows Upwards. . . … Suitability … … . .

| 26 | Example Risk Factors (ALAR) § Conditions which lead to increased risk § Examples (crew, sector, aircraft): – – – Inter-crew communication Crew experience Experience at airport Transient fatigue Cumulative fatigue Approach and Landing related MEL items Sector length ATC skill Complex approach Airport congestion Visual Conditions

| 27 | FORAS Foundation § Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS. § FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management § Managed by a committee of trustees § Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models § Progressively priced based on fleet size § Available installation and training § Stand-alone or cloud-based installation § Generic or customized risk models

| 28 | FORAS Requirements § Crew Roster and Tracking § Flight Information System, MEL data § NOTAM access § Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.

| 29 | FORAS Foundation Further Information § Contact Flight Safety Foundation § Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation § Danny Ho, EVA Air

| 30 | Summary

| 31 | Model Benefits Centralize safety knowledge Connect human factors and risk. Works with operations data, not FOQA “Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors. Customizable to each carrier’s operations.

| 32 | Program Benefits Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level. Pre-flight risk assessment leads to Awareness Communication Decision Aid Mitigation

| 33 | Thank you § Further information Flight Safety Foundation Danny Ho, EVA Airways Mike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation
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