Applying Population Ecology Human Population and Urbanization Chapter

Applying Population Ecology: Human Population and Urbanization Chapter 7

Core Case Study: Ecocity in Brazil (1) § Curitiba – “ecological capital” of Brazil § Inexpensive, efficient mass transit § High-rise apartments near bus routes, mixed-use structures § Bike and pedestrian paths

Core Case Study: Ecocity in Brazil (2) § 1. 5 million trees planted § Recycling § Build-it-yourself system for poor § Emphasis on ecological awareness, health, literacy

Curitiba, Brazil Fig. 7 -1, p. 123

7 -1 How Many People Can the Earth Support? § Concept 7 -1 We do not know how long we can continue increasing the earth’s carrying capacity for humans without seriously degrading the lifesupport systems for us and many other species.

Human Population Explosion § Exponential growth (J-curve) in past 200 years § Three major reasons • Ability to expand into diverse habitats • Emergence of agriculture • Sanitation systems and control of infectious diseases

How Long Can the Human Population Grow § Rate slowing, but still exponential § Uneven global growth § No population can grow indefinitely § 2050 global estimates: 7. 2– 10. 6 billion people § 97% growth in developing countries, least likely to cope

Human Alteration of the Environment Fig. 7 -2, p. 125

Case Study: Are There Too Many of Us? (1) § Resources for growing population? § Positive viewpoint • Technological solutions • Growing population a value resource § Negative viewpoint • 20% currently lack necessities • Declining conditions increase death rate • Resource use already degrade environment

Case Study: Are There Too Many of Us? (2) § Optimum sustainable population § Cultural carrying capacity

UN World Population Projections Fig. 7 -3, p. 126

7 -2 What Factors Influence Population Size? § Concept 7 -2 A Population size increases because of births and immigration and decreases through deaths and emigration. § Concept 7 -2 B The average number of children born to women in a population (total fertility rate) is the key factor that determines the population size.

Population Change § Population change = (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration) § Demographers look at birth rates and death rates

Number of Children § Fertility rates affect population size and growth rate § Replacement-level fertility rate § Total fertility rate (TFR)

Most Populous Countries

1. 3 billion 1. 5 billion China 1. 1 billion 1. 4 billion India USA Indonesia Pakistan 302 million 349 million 282 million 271 million 169 million 229 million Brazil 189 million 229 million Nigeria 144 million 205 million Bangladesh Russia Japan 149 million 190 million 142 million 128 million 119 million Fig. 7 -4, p. 127

Case Study: The U. S. Population Is Growing Rapidly § Quadrupled in 100 years, despite oscillations in TFR § Baby boom: High TFR § Current births outnumbering deaths and legal immigration § Growing faster than other developed countries

Fertility Rate of the U. S. Population

Baby boom (1946– 64) Replacement level Fig. 7 -5, p. 128

Changes in the U. S. Population

47 years Life expectancy 77 years 8% Married women working outside the home 81% High school graduates 15% 83% Homes with flush toilets Homes with electricity Living in suburbs Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) Homicides per 100, 000 people 10% 98% 2% 99% 10% 52% $3 $15 1. 2 5. 8 Fig. 7 -6, p. 129

Factors Affecting Birth Rates (1) § Importance of children as part of labor force § Cost of raising and educating children § Availability of retirement systems § Urbanization § Educational and employment opportunities for women

Factors Affecting Birth Rates (2) § Infant mortality rate § Average marriage § Availability of legal abortion and reliable birth control methods § Religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms

Factors Affecting Death Rates § Population growth also response to decline in crude death rate § Life expectancy and infant mortality rate important indicators of overall health § Average life expectancy increased § Infant mortality – barometer of a society’s quality of life

Migration § Migration driven by economic desires § Other reasons • • • Religious persecution Political oppression Ethnic conflicts Wars Environmental degradation

Case Study: The United States (1) § Nation of immigrants § 1820– 1960: Most immigrants European § Since 1960 • Latin America – 53% • Asia – 25% • Europe – 14%

Case Study: The United States (2) § Opponents of immigration • Stabilize population sooner • Reduce growing environmental impact • 60% of population favor reducing immigration § Proponents of immigration • • Important historical role Do menial jobs and pay taxes Add cultural vitality Replace retiring baby boomers

Legal Immigration

1907 1914 New laws restrict immigration Great Depression Fig. 7 -7, p. 130

7 -3 How Does a Population’s Age Structure Affect Its Growth or Decline? § Concept 7 -3 The numbers of males and females in young, middle, and older age groups determine how fast populations grow or decline.

Age Structure § Distribution of population • Prereproductive • Reproductive • Postreproductive § Country with many young people grows rapidly § Country with many older people will decline § Developing countries >30% under 15 years old

Population Age Structures

Male Female Expanding Rapidly Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Male Female Expanding Slowly United States Australia China Male Female Stable Japan Italy Greece Male Female Declining Germany Bulgaria Russia Fig. 7 -8, p. 131

Global Connections Fig. 7 -9, p. 132

Age Structure Predicts the Future § 50% of U. S. population baby boomers § Graying of America § 2043 – 25% of population over 65 § Changes the economy

Tracking the Baby Boomers Fig. 7 -10, p. 132

1955 1985 2015 2035 Stepped Art Fig. 7 -10, p. 132

Declines Occur in Aging Populations § “Baby bust” or “birth dearth” – TFR below 1. 5 children per couple § Labor shortages § Strain on governments for public services § Fewer taxpayers

Rapid Population Decline Fig. 7 -11, p. 133

Rising Death Rate: The AIDS Tragedy § Disrupts social, economic structure § Removes productive young adults § Next 50 years, 278 million will die (mostly African) § Eight African countries 16– 39% infected adults § Life expectancy 30– 40 years

7 -4 How Can We Slow Population Growth? § Concept 7 -4 Experience indicates that the most effective ways to slow population growth are to invest in family planning, to reduce poverty, and to elevate the status of women.

Stages of Demographic Transition § Preindustrial § Transitional – demographic trap § Industrial § Postindustrial

Stages of Demographic Transition

Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Population grows rapidly because birth Population grows very rates are high and death rates drop slowly because of improved food production because of a and health high birth rate Stage 3 Industrial (to compensate for high infant mortality) and a high death rate Population growth slows as both birth and death rates drop because of improved food production, health, and education Stage 4 Postindustrial Population growth levels off and then declines as birth rates equal and then fall below death rates Total population Birth rate Death rate Fig. 7 -12, p. 134

Family Planning (1) § Birth spacing, birth control, health care § Increased availability of contraception § 55% drop in TFR of developing countries § Developing countries • Almost half pregnancies unplanned • Lack access to family planning

Family Planning (2) § Replacement-level fertility achievable within decades § Invest in family planning § Reduce poverty § Elevate the social and economic status of women

Empowering Women Can Slow Population Growth § Educated women have fewer children § Illiterate woman 64% of world’s population, 70% of the poor § When daughters considered less valuable, not sent to school § Poor conditions for women leads to environmental degradation

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China (1) § Half birth date and drastically reduce TFR § Improved quality of life § Strict family planning § Sons still preferred – gender imbalance

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China (2) § Population rapidly aging § Rapidly growing economy § Larger middle class increases resource consumption and waste § Sustainable economic plan needed to avoid environmental degradation

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India § Tried to slow population growth for five decades § Most populous country in 2015 § Problems increase with growing population • • Poverty Malnutrition Environmental degradation Growing middle class – resource consumption

7 -5 What Are the Major Population and Environmental Problems of Urban Areas? § Concept 7 -5 Cities can improve individual lives, but most cities are unsustainable because of high levels of resource use, waste, pollution, and poverty.

Urban Living § Half the world lives in urban areas § 80% of Americans in cities § Urban areas continue to grow • Natural increase • Immigration

Major Trends in Urban Growth § Proportion of urban global population growing § Number and sizes of urban areas mushrooming § Rapid increase in urban populations in developing countries § Urban growth slower in developed nations § Poverty increasing

Urban Areas and Megacities Fig. 7 -13, p. 138

Case Study: Urbanization in the United States § 1800– 2007, increased population 5– 80% in urban areas § Migration patterns § Better working and housing conditions compared to the past § Problems in urban areas

Major Urban Centers in the United States Fig. 7 -14, p. 139

Urban Sprawl § Gobbling up countryside § Causes • • • Prosperity Ample and affordable land Automobiles Cheap gasoline Poor urban planning

Urban Sprawl Around Las Vegas Fig. 7 -15, p. 139

Stepped Art Fig. 7 -15, p. 139

Undesirable Impacts of Urban Sprawl Fig. 7 -16, p. 140

Consequences of Urban Sprawl § Inadequate mass transportation § Need to drive everywhere § Decreased energy efficiency § Traffic congestion § Destruction of prime cropland, forests, wetlands

U. S. Megalopolis: Bowash Fig. 7 -17, p. 140

Advantages of Urbanization § Economic development § Innovation § Education and jobs § Technological advances § Recycling more economically feasible § Longer life spans

Disadvantages of Urbanization (1) § Unsustainable systems § Lack of vegetation § Water problems § Pollution and health problems

Disadvantages of Urbanization (2) § Noise pollution § Climate and artificial light § Urban heat islands § Light pollution

Urban Areas Are Rarely Sustainable

Inputs Outputs Energy Solid wastes Food Waste heat Water Raw materials Manufactured goods Money Information Air pollutants Water pollutants Greenhouse gases Manufactured goods Noise Wealth Ideas Fig. 7 -18, p. 141

Noise Levels

Permanent damage begins after 8 -hour exposure Noise Levels (in db. A) Normal Quiet Rainfall Vacuum Lawn Earphones Boom Rock music breathing rural area cleaner mower at loud level cars Military Normal Chain Air raid Whisper Quiet Average Thunderclap rifle conversation saw siren room factory (nearby) Fig. 7 -19, p. 142

Urban Poor in Developing Countries § Slums § Shantytowns and squatter settlements § Lack of basic services

Living in a Shantytown Fig. 7 -20, p. 143

Case Study: Mexico City (1) § Large population § Severe noise, water, and air pollution § 50% unemployment § >33% live in barrios § 100, 000 premature deaths per year

Case Study: Mexico City (2) § 3 million without sewer § Fecal snow § Geography contributes to air pollution § Progress – tree planting and lower air pollution

7 -6 How Does Transportation Affect Urban Development? § Concept 7 -6 A combination of plentiful land, inexpensive fuel, and an expanding network of highways results in dispersed cities that depend on motor vehicles for most transportation.

Cities Can Grow Outward or Upward § Compact cities • Transportation by walking, biking, or mass transit • Hong Kong, Tokyo § Dispersed cities • Transportation by automobile • Most American cities

Automobiles in the United States § <10% of world’s population own 1/3 of cars § Gas guzzlers § 40, 000 people per year die from auto accidents § Largest source of air pollution § Lead to urban sprawl and congestion

Reduce Automobile Use § User-pays system § Full-cost pricing § Tax revenues to finance mass transit, bike paths, sidewalks § High gasoline tax unlikely § Need to discourage automobile use

Alternatives to Cars § Bicycles § Mass transit systems in urban areas § Bus systems § Rapid rail

Trade-offs: Bicycles Fig. 7 -21, p. 145

Trade-offs: Mass Transit Rail Fig. 7 -22, p. 145

Trade-offs: Buses Fig. 7 -23, p. 146

Trade-offs: Rapid Rail Fig. 7 -24, p. 146

7 -7 How Can Cities Become More Sustainable and Livable? § Concept 7 -7 An ecocity allows people to: choose walking, biking, or mass transit for most transportation needs; recycle or reuse most of their waste; grow much of their food; and protect biodiversity by preserving surrounding land.

Environmentally Sustainable Cities § Smart growth § Ecocities • • • Build and design people-oriented cities Use energy and matter efficiently Prevent pollution and reduce waste Recycle, reuse, and compost Protect and encourage biodiversity