APPLIED DATA ANALYSIS IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE CJ 525

APPLIED DATA ANALYSIS IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE CJ 525 MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY Juan P. Rodriguez CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006

Course Overview - 1 n n The Police Chief wants to measure citizen satisfaction with the police. The Sheriff wants to determine the fear of crime in the community. The Mayor wants to know if the time and money used in his crime suppression program has had any impact on the town’s crime rate The City Manager wants you to prepare a proposal to get state or federal grant funds. CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 2

Course Overview - 2 How will you accomplish these tasks? n Through the examination of quantitative and qualitative information n Through the preparation, dissemination, and evaluation of surveys n Through the use of scientific methods designed to separate fact from fiction and truth from perception. You will accomplish these tasks with research! CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 3

Course Overview - 3 At the end of the course, you will know how to: n Design and implement scholarly research projects n Acquire and analyze data n Employ scientific principles to justify your conclusions. You will be able to provide administrators, officers, and investigators with objective information they can use to address a wide variety of law enforcement concerns. CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 4

Lecture 1 KEY CONCEPTS IN SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006

Key Concepts in Social Science Research n n n Overview Empiricism Data Developing Research Questions Theory and Hypothesis Relationships & causality n n n Association Time order Non Spuriousness CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 6

Empiricism n Social Scientists study: n Occurrence of conditions or behaviors – Information gathered over time is used to identify trends and predict future patterns n n n Extent of family poverty Frequency of criminal behavior Relationships – How one set of conditions or behavior affect another n n Which factors predict crime? Which factors contribute to success in attaining HS and college degrees? CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 7

Empiricism n n Both types of studies require rigorous observation and analysis: empirical A critical and systematic way of separating facts from beliefs is needed: Statistics CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 8

Key Concepts in Social Science Research n n n Overview Empiricism Data Developing Research Questions Theory and Hypothesis Relationships & causality n n n Association Time order Non Spuriousness CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 9

Data n n A Research Project requires the collection and organizing of Data (pieces of information) Data for analysis are organized in Datasets, linking Cases with Variables Cases are the individual units under study. Each case has one Datum (observation) per Variables contain information about each Case in a way that makes Cases comparable CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 10

Data Name Age No school years Income Daniel 34 12 25000 Richard 45 16 30000 Mary 26 12 27000 Takisha 32 18 45000 Morgan 18 11 16000 CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 11

Data n n The course uses 2 datasets General Social Survey (GSS 98) contains demographic information from a nationally representative sample of respondents States Data contains information on the states and the people that live in them These data in these sets is comparable to that used by professional social scientists and policy makers CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 12

Data n Researchers should: n n Gather and construct the best quality data: It should be suited to the issue of interest (GIGO) Use Indicators that are n n Reliable (consistent) Valid: the indicator measures what is supposed to measure CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 13

Key Concepts in Social Science Research n n n Overview Empiricism Data Developing Research Questions Theory and Hypothesis Relationships & causality n n n Association Time order Non Spuriousness CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 14

Developing Research Questions Why students drop out of school? CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 15

Developing Research Questions Why students drop out of school? n Identify the Research Question n The question should drive the research n Capital punishment is beneficial to society vs. Is capital punishment a deterrent to crime? CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 16

Developing Research Questions Is there racial discrimination in the Education System? n Broad questions may need to be parsed into manageable sub questions: n n n Is there an equitable representation of minority groups within the curriculum? Is there proportionate representation of minority members in school systems? Are there differences in graduation rates among racial groups? CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 17

Developing Research Questions n Perform a Literature review n An overview of past research on topics related to the research question n It provides the knowledge gained on a subject to date Informs the researcher of the methods and analysis others have used to answer similar questions Allows researchers to identify unanswered questions or untried methods CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 18

Key Concepts in Social Science Research n n n Overview Empiricism Data Developing Research Questions Theory and Hypothesis Relationships & causality n n n Association Time order Non Spuriousness CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 19

Theory and Hypothesis n Finding answers to research questions involves developing theories and hypothesis n n Theory: unproven explanation of facts or phenomena Hypothesis: a falsifiable statement concerning expected relationships; they can be supported or refuted when subjected to a test. CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 20

Theory and Hypothesis Deductive Approach: Uses a theory to develop a number of hypothesis to be tested n Theory: Inequities in school funding leads minority group students to perform worse that white students CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 21

Theory and Hypothesis Deductive Approach: n Hypothesis: n n States with higher proportions of African Americans and Hispanics will have lower school funding States with higher levels of school funding will have higher graduation rates CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 22

Theory and Hypothesis Deductive Approach: n Theory: Death penalty is effective at deterring crime n Hypothesis: n n States that have the death penalty will have lower murder rates States that have the death penalty will have lower recidivism rates CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 23

Theory and Hypothesis Inductive Approach n Tentative theories are based on data and researchers continuously refine theories to concur with analyses n At the end, the researcher understands the relationships in the data and develops a theory to explain these relationships CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 24

Key Concepts in Social Science Research n n n Overview Empiricism Data Developing Research Questions Theory and Hypothesis Relationships & causality n n n Association Time order Non Spuriousness CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 25

Relationship and Causality n n n In causal relationships a set of conditions lead to predictable outcomes Deterministic relationships: the conditions lead to inevitable outcomes Most social science relationships are probabilistic: certain factors increase tendencies toward particular outcomes CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 26

Relationship and Causality n Causal relationships: independent variables are hypothesized to cause changes in dependent variables n n Death penalty deters crime School funding increases educational success CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 27

Relationship and Causality n Causality Criteria: n Association: there must be a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables n n Positive: an increase in one variable corresponds with an increase in the other. People with higher degrees tend to have higher incomes Negative: an increase in one variable corresponds with a decrease in the other. People with higher levels of education tend to be less prejudiced CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 28

Relationship and Causality n Causality Criteria: n Time order: the change in the independent variable must precede the change in the dependent variable n Making the assertion Instituting the death penalty will reduce crime requires having measurements of crime activity prior to and after the establishment of the death penalty CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 29

Relationship and Causality n Causality Criteria: n Non spuriousness: the relationship between the 2 variables is not due to a third “spurious” factor. n Ice cream consumption causes drowning deaths n n Association: more people drown when more ice cream is sold Time order: increases in ice cream sales precede increases in drowning deaths CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 30

Relationship and Causality n The unmeasured factor is temperature n n More people swim in the summer and more ice cream is consumed in the summer Researchers need to control possible spurious factors: income and education CJ 525 - Juan P. Rodriguez - Fall 2006 31