APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS
APPLIANCE STANDARDS BIG SAVINGS COME FULL CIRCLE PRESENTERS Carrie Cobb, BPA Rob Carmichael, Cadeo Group Angie Lee, Navigant Ben Barrington, Cadeo Group June 2, 2015
Overview Impacts Tools Results 2
OVERVIEW 3
15 NEW MODELS 7 5 Residential Non-Residential 3 Multi-Sector 4
APPLIANCE STANDARDS 1 million homes
45 STANDARDS 1, 507 a. MW (2010 -2034) 6
IMPACTS 7
WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT STANDARDS? External Power Supplies 2008 Commercial Unit Heaters Walk-in Coolers and Freezers 2009 Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 2010 General Service Incandescent Lamps General Service Fluorescen t Lamps Incandescent Reflector Lamps 2011 Commercial Package AC and HP including Single Package Vertical Units 2012 Kitchen Ranges & Ovens Commercial Packaged Boilers Beverage Vending Machines Commercial Refrigeration Equipment Dehumidifiers
Fluoresce nt Lamp Ballasts Electric Motors Water Heaters Refrigerato rs & Freezers Commerci al Refrigerati on Equipment Clothe s Washe rs Distribution Transformer s 2015 2016 Room AC 2013 2014 Clothes Dryers Small Electric Motors Metal Halide Lamp Fixtures 2017 Microwave Walk-in Ovens Coolers & External Freezer Power s Supplies Ice Makers 2018 2019 Furnace Fans 9
Market “Pull” and Demand Creation STANDARDS & PROGRAMS INTERACT DOE Standards Emerging Tech Support 10
DIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX Roll-Up Before Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard 11
INDIRECT IMPACT ON EFFICIENCY MIX Roll-Up Before Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient Shift New Standard Less Efficient More Efficient New Standard 12
PRODUCT MIX IMPACTS $1, 600 $800 13
STRATEGY 1: FILL IN GAPS Medium Screw Base A-Line Candelabra Base Reflector Lamps Par Lamps Other Exemptions 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Wattage Range 14
STRATEGY 2: GO BEYOND 32% Maximum feasible efficiency 35% 30% % Improvement Over 2014 Market Baseline 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 3% Current Standards 0% Standard-size vented clothes dryers 15
TOOLS 16
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Standardized Templates Familiarity 17
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Centralized Models Cohesion 18
MODEL ENHANCEMENTS AND OUTCOMES Guides Usability 19
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings 20
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW 400 300 200 Model Post-Case Shipment UEC 100 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Annual k. Wh Per Unit Model Pre-Case Shipment UEC 21
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings 22
FLOW STOCK 23
INSTALLED STOCK IN 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 24
STOCK TURNOVER MODEL OVERVIEW Lifetime Shipments Saturation Housing Stock or Commercial Floor Space Stock 25
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW Shipments Change in Unit Energy Consumption Incremental Savings 26
Efficiency Distributio ns Product Class Distributio ns Usage Statistics Weighted Average UECs 27
ACCUMULATED REPLACEMENTS IN INSTALLED STOCK 28
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM REPLACEMENTS DURING STOCK TURNOVER 29
NEW CONSTRUCTION SHIPMENTS 30
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FROM NEW SHIPMENTS 31
INCREMENTAL SAVINGS FOLLOWING STANDARDS 32
RESULTS 33
SAVINGS CALCULATION OVERVIEW End Use Analysis Cycle Residential Round 1 Round 2 Non-Residential Round 1 Round 2 Refrigeration Water Heaters HVAC Lighting EPS/BC Home Appliances Motors Transformers Miscellaneous 34
RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar 2015 Other 8% Heat Pumps 5% Freezers 5% Refrigerators 28% Water Heaters 54%
RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar Other 12% Freezers 2020 5% Electric Furnace Fans 14% Refrigerators 24% Water Heaters 45%
RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar Other 5% Freezers 13% 2034 Refrigerators 13% Water Heaters 18% Electric Furnace Fans 51%
NON-RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar 2015 Other 0% Electric Motors 2% Walk-In Coolers & Freezers 6% Commercial Washer 7% Distribution Transformers 85%
NON-RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar 2020 Other 5% Commercial Ref. Equipments 2% Walk-In Coolers & Freezers 15% Electric Motors 20% Distribution Transformers 58%
NON-RESIDENTIAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar 2034 Other 1% Commercial Washer 1% Walk-In Coolers & Freezers 3% Electric Motors 20% Distribution Transformers 75%
UNIVERSAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar Small Electric Motors 35% 2015 Battery Chargers 65%
UNIVERSAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar Small Electric Motors 36% 2020 Battery Chargers 48% External Power Supplies 16%
UNIVERSAL Regional Incremental Savings (a. MW) Adjusted by Busbar Small Electric Motors 17% 2034 Battery Chargers 31% External Power Supplies 52%
CONTACT Carrie Cobb clcobb@bpa. gov 503. 230. 4985 Ben Barrington bbarrington@cadeogroup. com 781. 354. 7070 Angie Lee Angie. Lee@navigant. com 415. 356. 7145 44
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