APEC Climate Center APCC Climate Outlook for AMJ

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APEC Climate Center (APCC) Climate Outlook for AMJ 2010 Presented by : R. H.

APEC Climate Center (APCC) Climate Outlook for AMJ 2010 Presented by : R. H. Kripalani Investigators : Soo-Jin Sohn, Young-Mi Min 1 APEC Climate Center

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) To meet the Bogor Goals of free and open

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) To meet the Bogor Goals of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region • Trade and Investment Liberalization • Business Facilitation • Economic and Technical Cooperation 2 APEC Climate Center

Procedure of Seasonal Forecast Participating Institutions APEC Member Economics APEC Climate Center (APCC) MME

Procedure of Seasonal Forecast Participating Institutions APEC Member Economics APEC Climate Center (APCC) MME Seasonal Production Data Collection Quality Check - 17 models Hindcast Forecast Deterministic Forecasts (4 DMMEs) Communication with model holders - Historical Observation Decision on the official APCC forecasts Probabilistic Forecast (PMME) Verification (Previous forecast, Hindcast) Outlook Graphics (Individual models, DMMEs, PMME, verification) Decision on the model set Preprocessing 10 th Dissemination Application (Index forecast, statistical downscaling) 20 th 15 th 3 APEC Climate Center

Participating Institutes Member Economies Acronym Organization Model Resolution Australia POAMA Bureau of Meteorology Research

Participating Institutes Member Economies Acronym Organization Model Resolution Australia POAMA Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre T 47 L 17 Canada MSC Meteorological Service of Canada 1. 875 L 50 NCC National Climate Center/CMA T 63 L 16 IAP Institute of Atmospheric Physics 4 5 L 2 Chinese Taipei CWB Central Weather Bureau T 42 L 18 Japan JMA Japan Meteorological Agency T 63 L 40 PNU Pusan National University T 42 L 18 GDAPS/KMA Korea Meteorological Administration T 106 L 21 GCPS/SNU Seoul National University T 63 L 21 METRI/KMA Meteorological Research Institute 4 5 L 17 MGO Main Geophysical Observatory T 42 L 14 HMC Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia 1. 12 1. 4 L 28 SENAMHI El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología 2. 8 L 18 IRI International Research Institute T 42 L 19 COLA Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies T 63 L 18 NCEP Coupled Forecast System T 62 L 64 NSIPP/NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2 2. 5 L 34 China Korea Russia Peru USA 4 APEC Climate Center

Participating Models Model Initialization Ensemble Size SST Specification Experimental Type CWB (Chinese Taipei) GDAS

Participating Models Model Initialization Ensemble Size SST Specification Experimental Type CWB (Chinese Taipei) GDAS from NCEP, date: 12 Z from 20091121 to 20091130 (for the 2010 JFM case) 10 OPGSST 1. 1 from CWB SMIP/HFP GDAPS_F (Korea) NCEP RA 2 (Time lagged initial condition – 3 -7 th 00 Z, 06 Z, 12 Z, 18 Z) 20 Forecasted SST SMIP/HFP MSC_GM 2 (Canada) LAF approach with a 12 hour lag 10 Persistence of CMC analysis SST anomaly of the 30 days prior of the start of the runs SMIP 2/HFP MSC_GM 3 (Canada) LAF approach with a 12 hour lag 10 Persistence of CMC analysis SST anomaly of the 30 days prior of the start of the runs SMIP 2/HFP MSC_SEF (Canada) LAF approach with a 12 hour lag 10 Persistence of CMC analysis SST anomaly of the 30 days prior of the start of the runs SMIP 2/HFP NCEP (USA) 0 Z, January 1 -15, 2010, once a day (for the 2010 MAM case) 15 Predicted CMIP NIMR (Korea) 0000 UTC 26 th Apr. 2004, 12 hour time lag ( for the 2004 JJA case) 10 OISST Apr anomaly + climate SST (Persistent) SMIP/HFP POAMA (Australia) Atmosphere/Land reanalysis from AMIP 30, one day lag run nudging 3 D atmosphere to Bureau in initial time GASP between each Predicted, temperature assimilated using Optimum interpolation (Smith et al 1991) into top 500 m of ocean every 3 days CMIP, coupled 1 -tier 5 APEC Climate Center

Methodology: Deterministic MME Schemes SCM SPM MRG Simple Composite Method : Simple composite of

Methodology: Deterministic MME Schemes SCM SPM MRG Simple Composite Method : Simple composite of individual forecast with equal weighting. Step-wise Pattern Projection Method : Simple composite of individual forecasts, after correction by statistical downscaling using SPPM. Multiple Regression Method: Optimally weighted composite of individual forecasts. The weighting coefficient is obtained by SVD based regression. Synthetic Multi-Model Super Ensemble Method: SSE Weighted combination of statistically corrected multi model output. 6 APEC Climate Center

2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC) 7 APEC Climate Center

2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC) 7 APEC Climate Center

2010 AMJ Forecast (T 850) 8 APEC Climate Center

2010 AMJ Forecast (T 850) 8 APEC Climate Center

Updated Participating Models in MME Model Initialization Ensemble Size SST Specification Experimental Type GCPS

Updated Participating Models in MME Model Initialization Ensemble Size SST Specification Experimental Type GCPS (Korea) 6 hr interval from 7 th to previous 12 predicted SST by KMA/SNU global SST prediction system SMIP/HFP JMA (Japan) BGM method (9 members) and 5 -day 51 LAF, the latest is on 12 th March, 2010 (in case of 2010 AMJ) Forecasted SST CMIP * GCPS: Global Climate Prediction System 9 APEC Climate Center

2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC) 10 APEC Climate Center

2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC) 10 APEC Climate Center

2010 AMJ Forecast (T 850) 11 APEC Climate Center

2010 AMJ Forecast (T 850) 11 APEC Climate Center

Hindcast Verification: Deterministic MME (60 E-130 E, 10 S-30 N) 12 APEC Climate Center

Hindcast Verification: Deterministic MME (60 E-130 E, 10 S-30 N) 12 APEC Climate Center

The APEC Climate Center Experimental climate Outlook for Mar-Aug 2010 based on 6 -month

The APEC Climate Center Experimental climate Outlook for Mar-Aug 2010 based on 6 -month 1 -tier MME Forecasts Investigators : Doo Young Lee and Hye-In Jeong

Experimental 6 -month 1 -tier MME Forecast Launched semi-operationally since late 2008.

Experimental 6 -month 1 -tier MME Forecast Launched semi-operationally since late 2008.

Model description CGCM (Tier-1) Models (seasonal 6 -month Experimental system) Institute Model name AGCM

Model description CGCM (Tier-1) Models (seasonal 6 -month Experimental system) Institute Model name AGCM Resolution OGCM Resolution Ensemble Member APCC(CCSM 3) CAM 3 T 85 L 26 POP 1. 3 Gx 1 v 3_L 40 5 NCEP GFS T 62 L 64 MOM 3 1/3 o lat x 1 o lon L 40 15 BOM POAMA BAM v 3. 0 d T 47 L 17 ACOM 2 0. 5 -1. 5 o latx 2 o lon L 25 10 FRCGC SINT(SINTEXF) ECHAM 4 T 106 L 19 OPA 8. 2 2 o cos(lat)x 2 o lon L 31 9 Seoul National Univ. SUT 1 SNU T 42 L 21 MOM 2. 2 1/3 o lat x 1 o lon L 32 6 Univ. of Hawaii UHT 1 ECHAM 4 T 31 L 19 UH Ocean 1 o lat x 2 o lon L 2 10

Experimental Designs and Data set Hindcast Periods & Target Season v APCC 6 -month

Experimental Designs and Data set Hindcast Periods & Target Season v APCC 6 -month climate forecasts are based on 1 -tier predictions from 6 institutions in the APEC region v 6 -month Integration during the period of 1983 -2005 (23 years) v SCM (6 month MME) : MAMJJA (spring, summer) season started from Feb 1 st using CGCM Simple Composite Method (SCM): Simple composite of individual forecast with equal weighting.

v Predicted Niño 3 Index v Indian Ocean Dipole mode index v Spatial distributions

v Predicted Niño 3 Index v Indian Ocean Dipole mode index v Spatial distributions of forecasted SST Anomalies (SCM) over the tropical Indo-Pacific

Hindcast Verification (Niño 3 and IOD indices for MAMJJA)

Hindcast Verification (Niño 3 and IOD indices for MAMJJA)

APCC MAM

APCC MAM

APCC JJA

APCC JJA

NCEP MAM

NCEP MAM

NCEP JJA

NCEP JJA

POAMA MAM

POAMA MAM

POAMA JJA

POAMA JJA

SINT MAM

SINT MAM

SINT JJA

SINT JJA

SUT 1 MAM

SUT 1 MAM

SUT 1 JJA

SUT 1 JJA

UHT 1 MAM

UHT 1 MAM

UHT 1 JJA

UHT 1 JJA

SCM (Simple Composite Method) MAM

SCM (Simple Composite Method) MAM

SCM (Simple Composite Method) JJA

SCM (Simple Composite Method) JJA

Hindcast Verification (Precipitation, Globe)

Hindcast Verification (Precipitation, Globe)

Thank You.

Thank You.