APEC Climate Center APCC Climate Outlook for AMJ
- Slides: 34
APEC Climate Center (APCC) Climate Outlook for AMJ 2010 Presented by : R. H. Kripalani Investigators : Soo-Jin Sohn, Young-Mi Min 1 APEC Climate Center
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) To meet the Bogor Goals of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region • Trade and Investment Liberalization • Business Facilitation • Economic and Technical Cooperation 2 APEC Climate Center
Procedure of Seasonal Forecast Participating Institutions APEC Member Economics APEC Climate Center (APCC) MME Seasonal Production Data Collection Quality Check - 17 models Hindcast Forecast Deterministic Forecasts (4 DMMEs) Communication with model holders - Historical Observation Decision on the official APCC forecasts Probabilistic Forecast (PMME) Verification (Previous forecast, Hindcast) Outlook Graphics (Individual models, DMMEs, PMME, verification) Decision on the model set Preprocessing 10 th Dissemination Application (Index forecast, statistical downscaling) 20 th 15 th 3 APEC Climate Center
Participating Institutes Member Economies Acronym Organization Model Resolution Australia POAMA Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre T 47 L 17 Canada MSC Meteorological Service of Canada 1. 875 L 50 NCC National Climate Center/CMA T 63 L 16 IAP Institute of Atmospheric Physics 4 5 L 2 Chinese Taipei CWB Central Weather Bureau T 42 L 18 Japan JMA Japan Meteorological Agency T 63 L 40 PNU Pusan National University T 42 L 18 GDAPS/KMA Korea Meteorological Administration T 106 L 21 GCPS/SNU Seoul National University T 63 L 21 METRI/KMA Meteorological Research Institute 4 5 L 17 MGO Main Geophysical Observatory T 42 L 14 HMC Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia 1. 12 1. 4 L 28 SENAMHI El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología 2. 8 L 18 IRI International Research Institute T 42 L 19 COLA Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies T 63 L 18 NCEP Coupled Forecast System T 62 L 64 NSIPP/NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2 2. 5 L 34 China Korea Russia Peru USA 4 APEC Climate Center
Participating Models Model Initialization Ensemble Size SST Specification Experimental Type CWB (Chinese Taipei) GDAS from NCEP, date: 12 Z from 20091121 to 20091130 (for the 2010 JFM case) 10 OPGSST 1. 1 from CWB SMIP/HFP GDAPS_F (Korea) NCEP RA 2 (Time lagged initial condition – 3 -7 th 00 Z, 06 Z, 12 Z, 18 Z) 20 Forecasted SST SMIP/HFP MSC_GM 2 (Canada) LAF approach with a 12 hour lag 10 Persistence of CMC analysis SST anomaly of the 30 days prior of the start of the runs SMIP 2/HFP MSC_GM 3 (Canada) LAF approach with a 12 hour lag 10 Persistence of CMC analysis SST anomaly of the 30 days prior of the start of the runs SMIP 2/HFP MSC_SEF (Canada) LAF approach with a 12 hour lag 10 Persistence of CMC analysis SST anomaly of the 30 days prior of the start of the runs SMIP 2/HFP NCEP (USA) 0 Z, January 1 -15, 2010, once a day (for the 2010 MAM case) 15 Predicted CMIP NIMR (Korea) 0000 UTC 26 th Apr. 2004, 12 hour time lag ( for the 2004 JJA case) 10 OISST Apr anomaly + climate SST (Persistent) SMIP/HFP POAMA (Australia) Atmosphere/Land reanalysis from AMIP 30, one day lag run nudging 3 D atmosphere to Bureau in initial time GASP between each Predicted, temperature assimilated using Optimum interpolation (Smith et al 1991) into top 500 m of ocean every 3 days CMIP, coupled 1 -tier 5 APEC Climate Center
Methodology: Deterministic MME Schemes SCM SPM MRG Simple Composite Method : Simple composite of individual forecast with equal weighting. Step-wise Pattern Projection Method : Simple composite of individual forecasts, after correction by statistical downscaling using SPPM. Multiple Regression Method: Optimally weighted composite of individual forecasts. The weighting coefficient is obtained by SVD based regression. Synthetic Multi-Model Super Ensemble Method: SSE Weighted combination of statistically corrected multi model output. 6 APEC Climate Center
2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC) 7 APEC Climate Center
2010 AMJ Forecast (T 850) 8 APEC Climate Center
Updated Participating Models in MME Model Initialization Ensemble Size SST Specification Experimental Type GCPS (Korea) 6 hr interval from 7 th to previous 12 predicted SST by KMA/SNU global SST prediction system SMIP/HFP JMA (Japan) BGM method (9 members) and 5 -day 51 LAF, the latest is on 12 th March, 2010 (in case of 2010 AMJ) Forecasted SST CMIP * GCPS: Global Climate Prediction System 9 APEC Climate Center
2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC) 10 APEC Climate Center
2010 AMJ Forecast (T 850) 11 APEC Climate Center
Hindcast Verification: Deterministic MME (60 E-130 E, 10 S-30 N) 12 APEC Climate Center
The APEC Climate Center Experimental climate Outlook for Mar-Aug 2010 based on 6 -month 1 -tier MME Forecasts Investigators : Doo Young Lee and Hye-In Jeong
Experimental 6 -month 1 -tier MME Forecast Launched semi-operationally since late 2008.
Model description CGCM (Tier-1) Models (seasonal 6 -month Experimental system) Institute Model name AGCM Resolution OGCM Resolution Ensemble Member APCC(CCSM 3) CAM 3 T 85 L 26 POP 1. 3 Gx 1 v 3_L 40 5 NCEP GFS T 62 L 64 MOM 3 1/3 o lat x 1 o lon L 40 15 BOM POAMA BAM v 3. 0 d T 47 L 17 ACOM 2 0. 5 -1. 5 o latx 2 o lon L 25 10 FRCGC SINT(SINTEXF) ECHAM 4 T 106 L 19 OPA 8. 2 2 o cos(lat)x 2 o lon L 31 9 Seoul National Univ. SUT 1 SNU T 42 L 21 MOM 2. 2 1/3 o lat x 1 o lon L 32 6 Univ. of Hawaii UHT 1 ECHAM 4 T 31 L 19 UH Ocean 1 o lat x 2 o lon L 2 10
Experimental Designs and Data set Hindcast Periods & Target Season v APCC 6 -month climate forecasts are based on 1 -tier predictions from 6 institutions in the APEC region v 6 -month Integration during the period of 1983 -2005 (23 years) v SCM (6 month MME) : MAMJJA (spring, summer) season started from Feb 1 st using CGCM Simple Composite Method (SCM): Simple composite of individual forecast with equal weighting.
v Predicted Niño 3 Index v Indian Ocean Dipole mode index v Spatial distributions of forecasted SST Anomalies (SCM) over the tropical Indo-Pacific
Hindcast Verification (Niño 3 and IOD indices for MAMJJA)
APCC MAM
APCC JJA
NCEP MAM
NCEP JJA
POAMA MAM
POAMA JJA
SINT MAM
SINT JJA
SUT 1 MAM
SUT 1 JJA
UHT 1 MAM
UHT 1 JJA
SCM (Simple Composite Method) MAM
SCM (Simple Composite Method) JJA
Hindcast Verification (Precipitation, Globe)
Thank You.
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