Analysis of Network Outage Reports 1 Cybersecurity and
Analysis of Network Outage Reports 1 Cybersecurity and Communications Reliability Division – Public Safety & Homeland Security Bureau John Healy February 2018
Data Source 2 Database snapshot as of February 6, 2018 NORS Final Outage Reports through December 2017 were used in the analysis
Frequency Trend Analyses 3 Estimate past trend and seasonality effects Ø Ø Estimate most recent trend Ø Ø Estimates used in trend chart Based on 3 -year window (4 Q 14 – 3 Q 17) Comparison with past trend Based on 3 -year window (1 Q 15 – 4 Q 17) Calculate 4 Q 17 average monthly frequency Ø Test if significantly different from expected frequency based on past trend and seasonality effects
Frequency of Outages by Month 4 Monthly Trend 0. 9% (down from 1. 1%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 1988. 3 (significantly lower than expected)
Outage Index – For All Outages Except DS 3 -Simplex 5 See ATIS-0100021 Analysis of FCC-Reportable Service Outage Data for a description of the method used to calculate the outage index.
Planned Maintenance 6 Monthly Trend 5. 2% (down from 5. 4%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 383. 0 (significantly lower than expected)
DS 3 (Non-Simplex) Events 7 Monthly Trend 0. 9% (down from 1. 1%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 1147. 7 (significantly lower than expected)
Big DS 3 Outages 8
Big DS 3 Outages 9 Monthly Trend 1. 0% (down from 1. 4%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 69. 0
DS 3 -Simplex 10 Monthly Trend 1. 2% (down from 1. 5%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 164 (significantly lower than expected)
Fiber Cut 11 Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 213. 3
E 911 12 Monthly Trend flat 0. 0% (down from 0. 7%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 88. 0
Very Large E 911 Outages 13 Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 1. 7
E 911 – Phase 2 Events 14 Monthly Trend 2. 0% (down from 2. 8%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 21. 3 (significantly lower than expected
Wireline 15 Monthly Trend flat 0% (unchanged 0%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 71. 7 Wireline outages are all outages for which the Reason Reportable was at least 900, 000 wireline user-minutes.
Wireless 16 Monthly Trend 1. 0% (unchanged) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 215. 0
Vo. IP 17 Monthly Trend 5. 5% (down from 6. 0%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 280. 7 (significantly lower than expected)
SS 7 18 Monthly Trend -2. 1% (unchanged) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 13. 0
Malicious Events 19 Monthly Trend -3. 0% (up from -3. 5%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 9. 3
Malicious Activity 20 The figures for 2017 are through December.
Hardware Failure 21 Monthly Trend 0. 3% (down from 0. 5%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 398. 7 (significantly lower than expected)
Environmental – External 22 Monthly Trend 0. 5% (down from 0. 7%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 232. 7
Power Failure 23 Monthly Trend flat 0% (down from 0. 6%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 274. 3
Diversity Failure 24 Monthly Trend -0. 6% (down from 0%) 4 Q 17 Monthly Average 50. 0 (significantly lower than expected)
Duration Trends: DS 3 Non-Simplex 25 The duration of DS 3 Non-Simplex outages has decreased from 2016 to 2017 (statistically significant using a Mann-Whitney test).
Duration Trends: E 911 26 The duration of E 911 outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann. Whitney test). 7
Duration Trends: Wireline 27 The duration of wireline outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Duration Trends: Wireless 28 The duration of wireless outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Duration Trends: DS 3 Simplex 29 The duration of DS 3 Simplex outages is statistically unchanged in 2017 compared with 2016 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Duration Trends: Vo. IP 30 The duration of Vo. IP outages has increased from 2016 to 2017 (statistically significant using a Mann-Whitney test).
Duration Trends: Other Special Facilities 31 The duration of other special facilities outages is statistically unchanged from 2016 to 2017 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Test for Trend in Event Duration Non-DS 3 -Simplex Outages DS 3 -Simplex Events Only Data from 1/2015 thru 12/2017 Rank Correlation of duration with date is -. 036 and is significant at the. 0001 level Conclusion: Durations of Non-DS 3 -Simplex Outages have shortened over the period from 1/2015 thru 12/2017. Rank Correlation of duration with date is. 062 and is significant at the. 0001 level Conclusion: Durations of DS 3 -Simplex Events have lengthened over the period from 1/2015 thru 12/2017. 32
NORS Transition 33 Monthly NORS Coordinators Meetings NORS User Manual Ø FCC sent proposed changes to NORS manual to the NRSC for its feedback DS 3 Simplex threshold change implemented in December 2017 Implemented going from DS 3 s to OC 3 s in January 2018
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