Analysis of Network Outage Reports 1 Cybersecurity and
Analysis of Network Outage Reports 1 Cybersecurity and Communications Reliability Division – Public Safety & Homeland Security Bureau Michael Caiafa August 2019
Data Source 2 Database snapshot as of August 7, 2019 NORS Final Outage Reports from January 1, 2013 through June 30, 2019 were used in the analysis
Frequency Trend Analyses 3 Past trend and seasonality effects Ø Ø Most recent trend Ø Ø Estimates used in trend chart Based on 3 -year window (2 Q 16 – 1 Q 19) Comparison with past trend Based on 3 -year window (3 Q 16 – 2 Q 19) Average monthly frequency in 2 Q 19 Ø Test if significantly different from expected frequency based on past trend and seasonality effects
December 22, 2018 Rule Change in Reporting Special Facilities Outages 4 Special Facilities (SF) outages are excluded from the remainder of the analyses Telecommunications Service Priority (TSP) is the primary factor for the increase
Other Changes in Reporting Rules 5 December 2017 Ø February 2018 Ø Ø DS 3 Simplex duration threshold reduced to 4 days OC 3 s replace DS 3 s as transport standard OC 3 Non-Simplex threshold raised to 667 OC 3 minutes May 2018 Ø User minutes calculation for Wireless outages changed
OC 3 Outage Reports 6 OC 3 Non-Simplex Outage Reports Ø Ø Reason Reportable “ 667 OC 3 minutes” DS 3 Non-Simplex outage report DS 3 s > 2 or OC 3 s > 0 DS 3 minutes > 2000 OC 3 Simplex Outage Reports Ø Ø Reason Reportable “OC 3 -Simplex greater than 4 Days” DS 3 Simplex outage report DS 3 s > 2 or OC 3 s > 0
Analyses Using OC 3 and DS 3 Outage Reports 7 OC 3 Non-Simplex Outage Reports Ø OC 3 Simplex Outage Reports Ø Ø Included in all analyses Analyzed separately Excluded from all other analyses unless noted otherwise DS 3 Simplex and DS 3 Non-Simplex Reports Ø Included in the analyses if they would have been reportable under the current rules
Frequency of Outages by Month 8 Monthly Trend 0. 9% (Current 0. 8%) Wireless Rule Change 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 2412. 0 (significantly higher than expected) Rule Change 24% increase
Outage Index 9 See ATIS-0100021 Analysis of FCC-Reportable Service Outage Data for a description of the method used to calculate the outage index.
OC 3 Non-Simplex 10 Monthly Trend 1. 0% (Current 1. 1%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 1168. 3
Big OC 3 Outages 11
Big OC 3 Outages 12 Monthly Trend 0% (Current 0%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 64. 3
OC 3 Simplex 13 Monthly Trend 0% (Current 1. 4%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 358. 7 (significantly higher than expected) Rule Change 102% increase Duration Rule Change
E 911 14 Monthly Trend 0. 6% (Current 0%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 110. 7
Very Large E 911 Outages 15 Monthly Trend 0% (Current 0%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 2. 3
E 911 – Phase 2 Events 16 Monthly Trend 1. 1% (Current 0%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 30. 3
Wireline 17 Monthly Trend 0. 6% (Current 0. 7%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 118. 0
Wireless 18 Monthly Trend 0. 6% (Current 0. 7%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 827. 0 (significantly higher than expected) Rule Change 204% increase
Vo. IP/Vo. LTE 19 Monthly Trend 2. 7% (Current 1. 7%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 644. 3 (significantly lower than expected) Rule Change 56% increase
SS 7 20 Monthly Trend 2. 7% (Current 3. 2%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 21. 7
Malicious Events 21 Monthly Trend 2. 3% (Current 2. 0%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 13. 3
Malicious Activity 22 The figures for 2019 are through June.
Fiber Cut 23 Monthly Trend 0% (Current 0%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 331. 3 (significantly higher than expected) Rule Change 52% increase
Planned Maintenance 24 Monthly Trend Flat 0% (Current 0%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 339. 3
Hardware Failure 25 Monthly Trend 0. 4% (Current 0%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 618. 7 Rule Change 25% increase
Environmental – External 26 Monthly Trend 0. 9% (Current 0. 8%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 279. 0 (significantly lower than expected) Rule Change 18% increase
Power Failure 27 Monthly Trend 0% (Current 1. 2%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 463. 0 (significantly higher than expected) Rule Change 51% increase
Diversity Failure 28 Monthly Trend -2. 6% (Current -3. 2%) 2 Q 19 Monthly Average 43. 3
Duration Trends: OC 3 Non-Simplex 29 The duration of OC 3 Non-Simplex outages is statistically unchanged in 2019 compared with 2018 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Duration Trends: E 911 30 7 The duration of E 911 outages is statistically unchanged in 2019 compared with 2018 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Duration Trends: Wireline 31 The duration of wireline outages is statistically higher in 2019 compared with 2018 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Duration Trends: Wireless 32 13 The duration of wireless outages is statistically unchanged in 2019 compared with 2018 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Duration Trends: Vo. IP 33 10 The duration of Vo. IP outages is statistically unchanged in 2019 compared with 2018 (using a Mann-Whitney test).
Duration Trends: OC 3 Simplex (outages with duration 5 days or more) 34 The duration of OC 3 Simplex outages is statistically higher in 2019 compared with 2018 (using a Mann. Whitney test).
Test for Trend in Event Duration 35 Non-OC 3 -Simplex Outages Data from July 2016 thru June 2019 OC 3 -Simplex Events Only (5 days duration minimum) Data from July 2016 thru June 2019 Rank Correlation of duration with date is. 032 and is statistically significant. Rank Correlation of duration with date is -. 015 but is not statistically significant. Conclusion: Durations of Non-OC 3 -Simplex Outages have increased over the period from July 2016 thru June 2019. Conclusion: Durations of OC 3 -Simplex Events have not changed over the period from July 2016 thru June 2019.
Outages In Progress OC 3 Non-Simplex 36
Outages In Progress Other Service-Affecting Outages 37
NORS Transition 38 Hold monthly NORS Coordinator meetings No updates to the NORS User Manual
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