Analysis of Network Outage Reports 1 Cybersecurity and
Analysis of Network Outage Reports 1 Cybersecurity and Communications Reliability Division – Public Safety & Homeland Security Bureau Jay Bennett April 2020
Data Source 2 Database snapshot as of April 10, 2020 NORS Final Outage Reports from January 1, 2013 through February 29, 2020 were used in the analysis
Frequency Trend Analyses 3 Past trend and seasonality effects Ø Ø Most recent trend Ø Ø Estimates used in trend chart Based on 3 -year window (Dec 2016 – Nov 2019) Comparison with past trend Based on 3 -year window (Mar 2017 – Feb 2020) Average monthly frequency (12/19 – 2/20) Ø Test if significantly different from expected frequency based on past trend and seasonality effects
December 22, 2018 Rule Change in Reporting Special Facilities Outages 4 Special Facilities (SF) outages are excluded from the remainder of the analyses Telecommunications Service Priority (TSP) is the primary factor for the increase
Analyses Using OC 3 and DS 3 Outage Reports 5 OC 3 Non-Simplex Outage Reports Ø OC 3 Simplex Outage Reports Ø Ø Included in all analyses Analyzed separately Excluded from all other analyses unless noted otherwise DS 3 Simplex and DS 3 Non-Simplex Reports Ø Included in the analyses if they would have been reportable under the current rules
Frequency of Outages by Month 6 Wireless Rule Change Monthly Trend 1. 1% (Current 1. 3%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 2284 (significantly lower than expected) Rule Change 21% increase
Outage Index 7 See ATIS-0100021 Analysis of FCC-Reportable Service Outage Data for a description of the method used to calculate the outage index.
OC 3 Non-Simplex 8 Monthly Trend 1. 2% (Current 1. 3%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 1248 (significantly lower than expected)
Large OC 3 Outages 9
Large OC 3 Outages 10 Monthly Trend 0. 6% (Current 1. 0%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 62
OC 3 Simplex 11 Monthly Trend 2. 3% (Current 2. 4%) Duration Rule Change 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 556 (significantly lower than expected) Rule Change 53% increase
E 911 12 Monthly Trend 0% (Current -0. 5%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 88
Very Large E 911 Outages 13 Monthly Trend 0% (Current 0%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 3. 3
E 911 – Phase 2 Events 14 Monthly Trend 0% (Current 0%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 27
Wireline 15 Monthly Trend 0. 8% (Current 0. 5%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 90 (significantly lower than expected)
Wireless 16 Monthly Trend 1. 4% (Current 1. 3%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 715 (significantly lower than expected) Rule Change 175% increase
Vo. IP/Vo. LTE 17 Monthly Trend 1. 0% (Current 0. 8%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 518 (significantly lower than expected) Rule Change 93% increase
SS 7 18 Monthly Trend 3. 4% (Current 3. 3%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 21
Malicious Events 19 Monthly Trend 2. 1% (Current 2. 0%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 16
Malicious Activity 20 The figures for 2020 are through February.
Fiber Cut 21 Monthly Trend 0% (Current 0%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 210 Rule Change 54% increase
Planned Maintenance 22 Monthly Trend 0. 3% (Current 0. 5%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 335
Hardware Failure 23 Monthly Trend 0. 5% (Current 0. 5%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 655 (significantly lower than expected) Rule Change 23% increase
Environmental – External 24 Monthly Trend 1. 1% (Current 0. 8%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 273 (significantly lower than expected) Rule Change 14% increase
Power Failure 25 Monthly Trend 3. 3% (Current 3. 6%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 462
Diversity Failure 26 Monthly Trend -3. 8% (Current -3. 5%) 12/19 - 2/20 Monthly Average 164 (significantly lower than expected)
Duration Trends: OC 3 Non-Simplex 27 Through February, durations in 2020 have not been statistically different from 2019.
Duration Trends: E 911 28 Through February, durations in 2020 have not been statistically different from 2019. 7
Duration Trends: Wireless 29 Through February, durations have been significantly longer in 2020 compared with 2019. 16
Duration Trends: Vo. IP 30 Through February, durations in 2020 have not been statistically different from 2019. 8. 5
Duration Trends: Wireline 31 Through February, durations in 2020 have not been statistically different from 2019.
Duration Trends: OC 3 Simplex (outages with duration 5 days or more) 32 Through February, durations have been significantly longer in 2020 compared with 2019.
Test for Trend in Event Duration 33 Non-OC 3 -Simplex outages data from March 2017 thru February 2020 Rank Correlation of duration with date is. 031 and is statistically significant. Conclusion: Durations of Non-OC 3 -Simplex outages have increased over the period from March 2017 thru February 2020. OC 3 -Simplex events (5 days duration minimum) data from March 2017 thru February 2020 Rank Correlation of duration with date is. 120 and is statistically significant. Conclusion: Durations of OC 3 -Simplex events have increased over the period from March 2017 thru February 2020.
Outages In Progress OC 3 Non-Simplex 34
Outages In Progress Other Service-Affecting Outages 35
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