Analysis of Federally Funded Tropical Cyclone RD Dr

Analysis of Federally Funded Tropical Cyclone R&D Dr. Frank Marks (NOAA) and Dr. Ron Ferek (Navy) Co-Chairs OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone WG/TCR 1

Joint Action Group/ Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) • February 2005: Federal Coordinator formed JAG/TCR – Formed as result of principal action item from 58 th IHC – Supported by Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) • February 2007: JAG/TCR work culminated with publication of Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 2

Outcome of Interagency Plan Form Working Group/Tropical Cyclone Research (WG/TCR) to: – Summarize operational needs of three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC (Table 1) – Present research priorities to aid in meeting needs of operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers (Table 2) – Coordinate TC research: • Update Tables 1 and 2 regularly (every 2 years) • Map agency efforts against TC research needs and operational priorities • Analyze results • Update information at IHC annually • Publish results & analysis of agency research OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 3

Operational Priorities Table 1

Research Needs Table 2

Agency Contribution to Research Needs Man-Years vs. Detailed Research Combined man-years by detailed research. Topic category 25 20 15 10 5 0 A 1 a A 1 b A 1 c A 1 d A 1 e A 1 f A 1 g A 1 h A 2 a A 2 b A 2 c A 2 d A 3 a A 3 b A 3 c A 3 d A 4 a A 4 b A 4 c A 5 a A 5 b A 6 B 1 B 2 B 3 a B 3 b B 3 c B 3 d B 3 e B 4 B 5 B 6 B 7 C 1 a C 1 b C 1 c C 2 C 3 Man-years Mapped using Detailed Research Need in Table 2 Intensity / Structure Track Genesis QPF Surge [Seasonal] Model Development Observations

Agency Research Contributions • Tabulated each agency research contribution (Man-year and $)

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D 2008 Overview • First-ever snapshot analysis of all identified agency R&D efforts mapped against: – Research needs (Table 2) – Operational priorities of TC forecasting and warning centers (Table 1) • Encompassed R&D activities during FY 2008 -2009 – NOAA, Navy, NSF, NASA, USACE, DOI/MMS, DHS/S&T • Total of 228 man-years – General research: 112 – Model development: 70 – Observations: 47 OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone WG/TCR 8

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D Interagency Partnerships • Strong partnerships exist between federal agencies on tropical cyclone research efforts – Substantial investments from multiple agencies are required to address the research needs that support operational priorities – Addressing operational priorities require both basic and applied research OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone WG/TCR 9

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D Intensity / Structure • Track Genesis QPF Surge Model [Seasonal] Development Obs Figure above summarizes the amount of research activity for each of the detailed research need categories described in Table 2 ▬ Investment from multiple agencies for most research areas • Members of the Working Group did not attempt to evaluate whethere was sufficient research being conducted in each of the research categories

Research Needs Mapped onto Ops Priorities Table 1

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D Research Needs Mapped to Operational Priorities JTWC Priorities NHC / CPHC Priorities • Research is better aligned to JTWC priorities versus NHC / CPHC priorities • Reviewing the top 10 priorities, there apparent mismatches to JTWC & NHC / CPHC operational priorities § Circles indicate apparent mismatches with low research investments OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone WG/TCR 12

Where do we go from here? • Just completed the 2010 snapshot • Mapping 2010 research activities to 2009 and new 2011 JHT AO operational priorities • Compare 2008 and 2010 research activities mapped to 2009 JHT AO operational priorities 2008 Snapshot Total man years: 228 2010 Snapshot Total man years: 286 47 62 94 112 70 General Modeling Observing 130 General OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Modeling Observing WG/TCR 13

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone R&D 2008 -2010 Comparison 2008 Snapshot 60 2010 snapshot Total = 228 30 20 Man-years NSF NOAAHFIP NASA 40 Total==211 286 HFIP = 75 50 Other 50 40 HFIP 30 Other 20 10 10 0 OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Surge QPF Observations Genesis Model Development A 1 A 2 A 3 A 4 A 5 A 6 B 1 B 2 B 3 B 4 B 5 B 6 B 7 B 8 C 1 C 2 C 3 Track Seasonal Surge QPF Genesis Track A 1 A 2 A 3 A 4 A 5 A 6 B 1 B 2 B 3 B 4 B 5 B 6 B 7 B 8 C 1 C 2 C 3 Intensity / Structure 0 Intensity / Structure Man-years 60 Model Development WG/TCR Observations 14

QUESTIONS? OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone WG/TCR 15