ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CRISES REMEDIAL MEASURES PROPOSED IN

ANALYSIS OF ENERGY CRISES & REMEDIAL MEASURES PROPOSED IN PAKISTAN By Prof. Dr. Engr. S. M. Bhutta Faculty of Engineering and Technology International Islamic university, Islamabad PAKISTAN

F 33% daily load shedding is most serious. FIt affects all activities. Industries suffer, daily life is detoriated! FIf appropriate actions are not taken immediately; the situation will get worse, people fight for every watt of electricity! FThe impounding crises gravity is not realized by the decision makers! FPolitics and several lobbies work against construction of major projects of indigenous energy.

Industrial Loss By Power Outages Ø Cost of the Industrial Section > US $4 Billion Ø Loss of Industrial Value Added > 11 percent Ø Total Loss of Load Shedding to the Economy > US $ 7 Billion Ø Cost as % of GDP. > 2. 5 percent Ø Loss of Exports > US $ 1. 3 Billion

Installed Capacity of Pakistan of power • • • WAPDA Thermal Hydel Nuclear IPPS (Thermal) Total 6, 441 MW 6, 500 MW 462 MW 6, 154 MW 19, 557 MW - Utilization of various sources of Energy Gas Oil Coal Nuclear Hydel - 33% 34% 1% 2% 33%

Reasons of Load Shedding ØCircular Debt due to Non-Payments of bills of oil and electricity ØOnly 11% of total hydel potential realized ØShortfall in gas supply, though local resources are available ØFuel Oil import supply issues and financial constrains ØSubsidies especially cross subsidy to domestic sector Ø Poor governance, nepotism and corruption Ø Technical losses & pilferage ØSystem and plants are old, availability low, need repair and rehabilitation. ØSystem faults & over loading.

Pakistan Energy Resources Hydro • Hydro-Electric Potential: - 59, 000 MW • Installed Hydel Capacity: - 6, 500 MW Solar • Solar Potential: - 2. 9 Million MW • Installed: - Experimental Wind • Wind Potential: - 346000 MW • Installed: - Experimental

Gas • Geographical potential : 150 Trillion cubic feet • Proven: 29 TCF • Production Yearly: 1. 27 TCF • Consumption Yearly: 1. 05 TCF • Import plans: Iran 1045 TCF, Qatar 980 TCF, Central Asian etc.

Oil • Geographical Potential: 27. 5 Billion Barrels • Proven: 0. 314 Billion Barrels • R/P Ratio: 13 years, Oil import 84%. • Production Yearly: 23 Million Barrels • Consumption Yearly: 132 Million Barrels

Coal • Geographical Potential: 185 Billion Tons • Proven: 0. 314 Billion Tons • Production Yearly: 3. 74 Million Tons • Consumption Yearly: 8. 4 Million Tons Ø Only 1. 46 % of Coal Potential is realized. Ø 56% of Coal is Imported.

Barriers in the Development of Energy Ø 1. Technology and Information Barriers. Ø 2. Regulatory Barriers. Ø 3. Tariff. Ø 4. Policy Barriers. Ø 5. Institutional Barriers. Ø 6. Financial Barriers. Ø 7. Interconnection Barriers Ø 8. Procedural Impediments. Ø 9. Anti Lobbies Ø 10. Risks Ø a. Hydrological Risks Ø b. Geological Risks. Ø c. Environment Risks. Ø d. Miscellaneous.

Technology and Information Barriers. Ø lack of knowledge about the technologies of Energy. Ø Need for education of Energy Technology, not only for the students & engineers but also for general public Strategy to achieve five E’s E----- Education E----- Energy E----- Employment E----- Equity E----- Enterprise International Islamic University, Islamabad has taken a lead in starting the classes for post graduate students about Energy Engineering to implement the most important “Es” of education in energy & for employment on equity basis for enterprises.

Remedial Measures i). Increase the priority for funding of Energy projects. ii). Encourage private sector investment and involvement in the programmes for training and implementation. Promote the establishment of joint-venture manufacturing, consultancy for local production of energy systems. iii). Establish or designate a single but active organization to give international focus and leadership of professionals to the increased use of energy. iv). Establish in universities and provinces centers of excellence for energy, to provide training, technology support, and resources databases appropriate to the local needs.

v). Increase R&D and industrial linkage funds for energy. vi). Review and update economic decision-making methodology to include the external impacts of the options. VII). Need for amendments in NEPRA Act, Rules, Regulations based upon the following issues to promote energy: Ø Net Profit according to Article 161 of Constitution of Pakistan for hydro power projects needs to be worked out properly because AGN Qazi formula is defective. Ø Need to have legal coverage for all the energy policies.

Ø Need to facilitate the micro/mini renewable electrical generating units (solar, hydel, wind, bio-diesel) to get generation license without any fees and paper work. Ø Renewable energy to be awarded reasonable up-front tariff. Ø NEPRA should have competent professionals and future vision of renewable energy to guide the nation. Ø Sincere actions required to address the reasons of load shedding.

NATIONAL LOSS IF PAKISTAN DAM IS NOT BUILT ØNational food needs would be jeopardized Ø 28% loss of storage capacity reservoirs due to sedimentation Ø Implementation of Water Apportionment Accord, ØNew storages are essential. In its absence would give rise in bitter inter-provincial disputes, Ø

LESSONS LEARNT Construction of Most Controversial Dams and Hydel Projects of India & China Ø India Ultimately Completed Construction of Controversial Multi-Purpose 1450 MW Sardar Sarovar Dam, in 2007, after two decades of controversy. Ø The most controversial and the largest 22, 500 MW, Three Gorges Dam of China got completed in year 2009 after 77 years of controversy. ! Ø This Dam was originally envisioned in 1932, became most controversial, was Revised in 1980. Ø Three Gorge Dam as approved by the China National People’s in 1992: when out of total 2, 633 voters, 1, 767 voted in favour.

Strategy Proposed to Develop Consensus About Hydel Power Dams in Pakistan 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Inter Provincial Agreements for New Water Storages National Comprehensive Law for Water as Accord Need of Reliable Telemetry System to win confidence of all National Provincial Assemblies, Senate to Play Leading Role Council of Common Interest (CCI) to play due role Net Profit of Hydel Plants to be reviewed as per Constitution Wastage of 21 MAF of Water to Sea to be fully utilized Feasibilities reports need priorities Self Reliance to be achieved Departments & Organizations to be Made Active R&D Institution & Study Groups to be Established 12. Metrology Office and forecasts need to be more reliable 13. Every Drop of Water Must be Used Fruitfully

Hydro Electrical Power Promotion Institute (HEPPI) Educational & training material in English & local languages to be produced for study at all levels, including booklets and videos for distance learning, and support to be given to courses and seminars Finance and Economics project financing, interaction with lending agencies and risk analysis & mitigation methodologies to attribute tangible benefits; conceptual planning for project financing; generation pricing, tariff etc. Technology focus on machinery, mechanical & electrical equipment and civil works. Working Groups will undertake surveys and reports on issues. Hydrology & geology data to be made available of different sites. Research R&D to be promoted, innovation inventories and bibliographies will be prepared of research projects supports; scientific information will be given to public. Hydro Power Plants, R&D, Education Development, Design, Manufacturing, Installation, O&M, Economic, latest Technologies Information Public Relations Through media contacts, publications and representation at conferences, enhancement of communications and understanding between all stakeholders involved in development, including decision-makers, politicians, public and to provide consultancy services CDM & Environment Pollution and climate change; environment assessment; social aspects; surface water quality; groundwater management; fish and fisheries; sedimentation; operational aspects, risk managements and Displacement of peoples. 19