Analysis and Procedure The Rise and Fall of

Analysis and Procedure: The Rise and Fall of the Stormwater Rule “Policy Modeling in Practice” Centre for Research in Social Simulation December 8, 2014 Royal Academy of Engineering

Christopher L. Moore (Me!) 20022004 Legislative staff (Waxman, Cardoza) U. S. House of Representatives 20082009 Oak Ridge Science and Education Fellow U. S. Environmental Protection Agency 20092013 Economist/Environmental Protection Specialist U. S. EPA: Office of Wastewater Management/ Municipal Branch 2013 Current German Chancellor Fellow “Funding the Water Infrastructure Gap. Lessons for U. S. Regulators and Utilities from Germany’s Success” BA: Political Science UC Berkeley (2002) MPIA: Intl. Economics UC San Diego (2007) Funded by:

Organizational Players Office of Water Office of Wastewater Management Office of the Administrator Office of Policy Office of Management and Budget Office of Science and Technology Executive Order 12866 (1993) Regulatory Planning and Review

Urban Stormwater Management in the United States: National Research Council (NRC) Report Source: NRC Report Credit: Chris Crockett, City of Philadelphia Watershed Department Source: NRC Report Copyright: Ecological Society of America

Denver, Colorado Bremerton, Washington Nashville, Tennessee Normal, Illinois From asce. org and Kuchar, Brian; LID Practices in Urban Areas- Example Projects and Opportunities in Redevelopment; 2011 Low Impact Development Symposium; Philadelphia, September 2011

Office of Water Management Initial Approach Watershed (NRC Recommended) Regulatory Non-regulatory Draft Approach Staff Individual Site Impact Analysis Site Visits Funding Draft Specific Language Public Comment

New Regulatory Requirement Impact Analysis (Cost Benefit Analysis) Select low compliance cost practice Benefits to Society ($) -avoided flooding -water supply savings -avoided dredging costs -valued water quality improvements Projected Acres of Future Development Compliance Costs ($) Climate and Watershed Modeled Impact of Regulation (Redrawn from Abt Associaties “Development of Generic Landscape-Level Stormwater Retention/Treatment BMP in SWAT” Presented SWAT International Conference, Toulouse, France July 2013

NRC Report ● May 2009 Initiated ● December 2012 Planned Finalization ● June 2013 Negotiated Extension (Missed) ● March 2014 Rulemaking Stopped

vs vs $s Threshold effect vs vs Firm Organization

Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (NRC Report) Stakeholders and Interested Parties (Differing mental models) Existing Models and Data (supplied by previous academic and policy work) Redrawn from Norton 2006 p. 470 The Table The Demand Model

Thank You! chris. moore@ecologic. eu @chmooze

Research Risk Assessment Laboratory and field observations of adverse health effects and exposures to particular agents Hazard identification (Does the agent cause the adverse effect? ) Information on extrapolation methods for high to low dose and animal to human Dose-response assessment (what is the relationship between dose and incidence in humans? ) Field measurements, estimated exposures, characterization of populations Exposure assessment (What exposures are currently experienced or anticipated under different conditions? ) Risk Management Development of regulatory options Risk characterization (What is the estimated incidence of the adverse effect in the population? ) Redrawn from Norton 2006 p. 140 (originally in NRC 1983) Evaluation of public health, economic, social, political consequences of regulatory options Agency decisions and actions