Analysing the Risk of Drowning at Surf Beaches
Analysing the Risk of Drowning at Surf Beaches Damian Morgan
Introduction Ø Outdoor tourist activities can be fun and exciting Ø These activities carry an inherent risk of injury Ø Injury profiles have been developed for a number of tourist activities Ø Injury profiles assist in the development of injury prevention strategies
Risk causation Tourist injury profiles do not necessarily identify and quantify the risk factors causing injury Ø Risk factors can be identified and quantified through epidemiological research designs Ø Ø However, the time and resources required means that research costs may outweigh potential benefits (e. g. , prospective cohort studies)
Ø This presentation outlines an alternative approach to identifying and assessing candidate risk factors associated with tourism injuries for outdoor activities Ø Surf beach drowning in Australia is used as an example
Surf beach drowning in Australia Between 40 and 80 drowning related deaths occurred over each of the last five years • Approximately 8 in 10 victims were male • The majority of victims were adolescent and adult • Drowning was more frequent over the summer months, during afternoons and on weekends • International tourist comprise approximately onethird of surf beach drowning events •
Risk analysis process 1. Identify risk factors 2. Distinguish causal factors from associated factors 3. Assess whether causal risk factors can be treated or modified 4. Develop and test intervention
Identifying candidate risk factors Ø Haddon’s Matrix
Distinguishing between risk causation and associated factors
Risk modification Ø Assess whether candidate causal risk factors are modifiable Example 1 – Swimming ability; Example 2 – Rip currents
Outcomes Ø The analysis produces a set of candidate risk causal factors Ø Findings can be used to develop hypotheses to test in future studies Ø Intervention strategies can be based on risk factors, and implemented through risk marker and exposure knowledge
Conclusion The removal of risk inherent in surf beach environments is neither possible nor desirable Ø The aim is to improve beach safety through the development of practical countermeasures Ø
Thank you
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