An Independent Model of the Extraction Oil and

An Independent Model of the Extraction Oil and Gas January 2017 Proposal of 139 wells in Broomfield Colorado By Gerard Gilliland June 12, 2017 Not Associated with Extraction Oil and Gas or Broomfield County This presentation at: http: //www. modelsw. com/Oil. Gas. Monitor/index. html You are welcome to copy and share this presentation and data. I suspect the papers I reference are copyrighted and I have not asked permission to use their papers.

Extraction’s January proposal Extraction Oil and Gas, Inc. Development Plan

EPA drilling in Niobrara Monthly additions from one average rig https: //www. eia. gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full. pdf This is the base for the study.

5 wells every 2 months • 2. 8 wells per rig per month I’m using 2. 5 wells per month or 5 wells every 2 months • One average well completes in 11 days (see page 14 in link on next page) – I’m using 12 days • 4, 285 thousand cubic feet per day – When I calculated it. Now is it 4, 520. = 4. 285 million cubic feet per day • 4. 285 million cubic feet per day per rig X 30 days / 2. 5 wells per rig = 51. 4 million cubic feet per month per well. (first month)

Depletion CU study Needed to calculate totals over 6 years. http: //www. colorado. edu/business/sites/default/files/attachedfiles/colorado_oil_and_gas_update_-_prices_082015. pdf

Well Depletion Year drill first year second third fourth fifth sixth seventh eight ninth Depletion 1 0. 459 0. 272 0. 195 0. 153 0. 126 0. 107 0. 093 0. 084 0. 082 Peak flows first month of each year 51. 42 27. 82 20. 25 16. 30 13. 81 12. 07 10. 78 9. 77 8. 95 8. 22 Table 2 – Percentage Natural Gas Decline By Year (Depletion Rate) (link previous page. pdf page 13 hardcopy page 10) My personal opinion is they are not getting more gas out. They are just getting it out faster.

Pipeline graph 72 months Flow SCF/month 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364656667686970717273 This is needed to calculate the pressures and pipe sizes. I Suspect the pause in drilling is a result of pipe size and cost. (see also next page)

Gathering Pipe Pressures and flows • • • 29 wells at 1, 173 million Standard Cubic Feet per month (mm. SCF/m) 55 wells at 1, 850 mm. SCF/m, 84 wells at 2, 375 mm. SCF/m, 139 wells at 3, 013 mm. SCF/m. To balance the flows at 1200 psig: – 12 inch line from Lowell (29 wells) to Lowell-Sheridan Wye, – 12 inch line from Sheridan (26 wells) to Lowell-Sheridan Wye, – 16 inch line from Lowell-Sheridan Wye (55 wells) to Sheridan-United Wye, – 18 inch line United to Sheridan-United Wye (84 wells) , – 14 inch line (42 wells) Huron to United Wye, – 20 inch line Sheridan-United Wye North to the Gathering Facility (139 wells). • And that brings up the question: What is the line that goes south from the United-Huron Wye? Is there something Extraction is not telling us? Is Extraction planning a pad south-east of Huron? http: //www. modelsw. com/Oil. Gas. Monitor/Pressures. Volumes. Flows. xlsx

Pipeline Rupture http: //pstrust. org/ We saw one house disappear in Frederic with a 15 pound line. I am estimating 1200 pounds with Extraction (next page)

Pipeline Rupture Setbacks Hazard radius = 0. 685 sqrt(p*d^2) Equation 2. 8 page 10 http: //pstrust. org/docs/C-Fer. Circle. pdf Pressure pipe diam hazard factor PSIG inches internal radius feet 0. 685 1200 4 4. 03 96 0. 685 1480 20 18. 81 496 0. 685 1200 12 11. 94 283 0. 685 1200 14 13. 13 312 0. 685 1200 16 15 356 0. 685 1200 18 16. 88 401 0. 685 1200 20 18. 81 446 0. 685 1200 24 22. 63 537 The 1200 PSIG was the best fit. I show 1480 here for comparison. This is my estimate. We need these calculations from Extraction.

Legality • Wells are controlled by the State (page 7) • Transmission lines are controlled by Federal and State (page 6 & 8) • Gathering pipelines are controlled by LOCAL counties. (page 5, 8 and 12) A Regulatory Review of Liquid and Natural Gas Pipelines in Colorado • Recent developments in the field of gas exploration and production indicate that the framework for regulating gas gathering lines may no longer be appropriate. The gathering lines being constructed to transport “shale” gas typically range in diameter from 12” – 36” with a maximum allowable operating pressure (MAOP) of 1480 psig, far exceeding the historical operating parameters of such lines.

Extraction Exceeds Pipeline Limits • The following are examples where the hazard area radius exceeds the actual setback. • W 152 nd Ave & Lowell Boulevard homes less than now actual 200 feet => minimum should be 283 feet • Mountain View Circle and Hillside Court homes actual 100 to 200 feet => minimum should be 283 feet • Planned homes on Sheridan Parkway, Pebble Creek Parkway, and Zuni Place actual less than 200 feet => minimum should be 446 feet • North Metro Fire and Rescue Station 66 building actual less than 200 feet => minimum should be 401 feet • National Archives and Records building less than 250 feet => minimum should be 446 feet • Huron Street north of 156 th Avenue Homes less than 600 feet => unknown • Kaiser Permanente has purchased property that is “near Highway 7 and I 25. ” I have written them about a potential pipeline. I have not heard back. • Since several areas along the proposed pipeline fall into the High Consequence Area definition, I recommend a minimum standard setback of 660 feet for the entire pipeline.

COGCC Study BASELINE STUDY GREATER WATTENBERG AREA, COLORADO 4 wells in Broomfield County This was my best find. Up until here I was working with an unknown product. Sample data cogcc study 2006 4 wells Page 19 http: //cogcc. state. co. us/documents/library/Area. Reports/Denver. Basin/GWA/Greater _Wattenberg_Baseline_Study_Report_062007. pdf

Average 4 wells products GREATER WATTENBERG AREA BASELINE STUDY GREATER WATTENBERG AREA, COLORADO Part of Table 2 pages 25 -26 -- link on previous page Sample Location Sample ID NIOBRARA / CODELL S 28 1 N 68 W Carr #1 Sample Date J SAND/CODELL/NIOBRARA S 26 1 N 68 W Crandell E Unit #1 C 1% C 2 H 4 % C 3% C 2% i. C 4% n. C 4% i. C 5% n. C 5% C 6+% 12/8/2006 79. 49 11. 73 0 4. 13 0. 49 1. 01 0. 17 0. 16 0. 06 11/9/2006 79. 79 12. 93 0 3. 23 0. 38 0. 43 0. 27 0. 29 0. 23 J SAND / CODELL S 15 1 N 68 W UPRR 43 Pan Am W #1 10/31/2006 84. 53 8. 37 0 1. 76 0. 29 0. 32 0. 11 0. 09 0. 35 J SAND S 22 1 N 68 W Hulstrom #6 -22 10/31/2006 84. 84 8. 52 0 1. 72 0. 27 0. 26 0. 09 0. 05 0. 18 82. 1625 10. 3875 0 2. 71 0. 3575 0. 505 0. 16 0. 1475 0. 205 Average % Production VOC Natural Gas Methane Ethane Propane Butane i-Pentane n-Pentane Hexane Mole. Wt Fraction 19. 812 16. 04 30. 07 44. 1 58. 12 72. 15 86. 178 1 0. 821625 0. 103875 0. 0271 0. 003575 0. 0016 0. 001475 0. 00205 http: //www. modelsw. com/Oil. Gas. Monitor/Pressures. Volumes. Flows. xlsx

OSHA Limits https: //www. osha. gov/Publications/OSHA 3843. pdf Appendix B (page 10) VOC Methane Ethane Propane i-Butane n-Butane i-Pentane * n-Pentane n-Hexane Benzene Heptane Ethyl Benzene Toluene Xylenes Mixed (naptha) limits ppm 5000 3000 1000 800 1000 50 0. 1 85 100 100 500 source IDLH PEL REL REL PEL * i-Pentane is my addition (might not be valid) NIOSH Recommended Exposure Limits (RELs) OSHA Permissible Exposure Limits (PELs) Immediately Dangerous to Life or Health (IDLH) – 10% of LEL Lower and Upper Explosive Limits (LEL and UEL) I recommend limit the study to those products that have limits.

Getting Perspective When first starting, I thought 42 wells in such a small area, would be an explosion happening. I have come to realize you can be awash in Methane and still be below limits. It is 36 times worse than CO 2 as a greenhouse gas. But that happens everywhere there is drilling and I am trying to keep an industrial process out of a residential area. Study 10 - Given 490 g/sec Methane emission from Garfield table 3. 1 (CSU) Produces 1 -HR AVERAGE CONCENTRATION OF CH 4 IN MICROGRAMS/M**3 DEG DISTANCE (METERS) 28. 00 (92 feet) 30. 0 3574427. 12986 (16072101) = 5061 ppm (Exceeds 10% of 50, 000) At that distance, Ethane is 451. 9 mg = 341. 3 ppm. Since Ethane is heavier than air, in 88 hours it will have built up 30, 000 ppm. So it is possible. I suspect that is what happened in Firestone. I’ll let the Doctors and Health Personnel look at the rest of the limits.

Units • Estimation CSU losses 0. 004719298 (. 47%) http: //pubs. acs. org/doi/full/10. 1021/es 5052809 • Front Range Losses limited to 0. 02 (2. 0%) • Grams / Second g/s = mm. Scf. Per. Month / Scf. Per. Mole X Mole. Wt. Natural. Gas X Grams. Per. Pound / Seconds. Per. Month * 1000000 • Parts Per Million PPM = milligrams. Per. Meter. Cubed X (Liters. Per. Mole / Mole. Weight) where liters/mole = 22. 71108 and mg = g / 1000 All my calculations are in micrograms and parts per billion Which is ug = mg/1000 and ppb = ppm/1000 • Pressure and Volume (P 1*V 1)/T 1 = (P 2*V 2)/T 2 or V 2 = V 1*(P 1/P 2)*(T 2/T 1) and T 2/T 1 = 1

EPA AERMOD and AERMET • AERMET – weather data – Hourly surface from Erie Airport – Twice daily weather balloons from Stapleton https: //www 3. epa. gov/ttn/scram/7 thconf/aermod/aermet_userguide. pdf Erie Airport surface data: 720534 ERIE, CO https: //gis. ncdc. noaa. gov/maps/ncei/cdo/hourly Upper Air data: 23062 STAPLETON, CO https: //esrl. noaa. gov/raobs/ • AERMOD – Calculate dispersion of contaminants – g/s source – Average and Max ug/m^3 for Hour, Day, Month, and Year. https: //www 3. epa. gov/ttn/scram/models/aermod_userguide. pdf

AERMOD Output -- Study 102 (Lowell Production 2017) • • • • • • • • • • ** CONC OF CH 4 IN MICROGRAMS/M**3 ** DIRECTION | DISTANCE (METERS) (DEGREES) | 283. 40 435. 80 893. 00 1655. 00 ------------------------------------------10. 0 | 25957. 84253 (16010307) 17532. 83730 (16010224) 8076. 48374 (16010302) 3547. 91239 (16010302) 20. 0 | 27081. 57488 (16010302) 18333. 47175 (16010202) 7848. 67111 (16020923) 3127. 19579 (16030521) 30. 0 | 29169. 26048 (16010202) 19546. 40386 (16012704) 8611. 37865 (16010205) 3819. 94454 (16011119) 40. 0 | 33472. 11790 (16011119) 21509. 90916 (16011120) 8858. 96013 (16012220) 3939. 82635 (16011124) 50. 0 | 39945. 59087 (16010101) 22954. 37422 (16010420) 9232. 63087 (16010420) 3966. 98123 (16010420) 60. 0 | 47150. 13592 (16012924) 25111. 84414 (16012924) 8917. 99260 (16012924) 3590. 58443 (16012924) 70. 0 | 48255. 54129 (16011108) 26568. 22307 (16011108) 9721. 03364 (16011108) 4050. 35876 (16011108) 80. 0 | 41855. 19483 (16030322) 18830. 38024 (16030322) 5962. 81540 (16032421) 2526. 63687 (16032421) 90. 0 | 37604. 33386 (16022318) 14677. 94209 (16030322) 6774. 36849 (16030322) 3129. 96274 (16030322) 100. 0 | 26060. 35721 (16120924) 17968. 01633 (16022318) 6501. 49452 (16022318) 2183. 14209 (16022318) 110. 0 | 28342. 41883 (16012306) 10707. 86731 (16012306) 5562. 98574 (16120924) 2282. 12045 (16120924) 120. 0 | 21321. 08619 (16012306) 14559. 26946 (16012306) 4373. 08220 (16012306) 1359. 05108 (16050522) 130. 0 | 21362. 12483 (16021924) 10721. 96835 (16122203) 4486. 15045 (16012306) 2144. 34414 (16012306) 140. 0 | 22466. 45770 (16021502) 13155. 53726 (16021924) 4185. 38541 (16122004) 1605. 89780 (16122004) 150. 0 | 19862. 26521 (16021107) 15141. 52980 (16021502) 6457. 18867 (16021924) 2170. 72997 (16121823) 160. 0 | 12990. 89770 (16030222) 9284. 79122 (16021107) 6279. 06295 (16021107) 3373. 60638 (16021107) 170. 0 | 12273. 04904 (16112707) 8934. 72310 (16121402) 3620. 13825 (16121402) 1264. 58851 (16030318) 180. 0 | 11905. 91142 (16121124) 8850. 68916 (16122224) 3951. 51335 (16112707) 1461. 03212 (16121402) 190. 0 | 17739. 71592 (16011720) 8819. 63360 (16122918) 3829. 97850 (16121124) 1540. 48559 (16122224) 200. 0 | 20144. 99740 (16011720) 14367. 76774 (16011720) 5668. 82748 (16011720) 2110. 58656 (16123117) 210. 0 | 13762. 24209 (16011220) 8462. 09099 (16011720) 3969. 61623 (16011720) 1876. 59327 (16011720) 220. 0 | 19532. 29282 (16011220) 12798. 56068 (16011220) 5226. 89944 (16011220) 2040. 86564 (16011220) 230. 0 | 22320. 29908 (16012904) 15308. 81861 (16012904) 7220. 00338 (16012904) 3426. 36029 (16012904) 240. 0 | 20328. 43743 (16012923) 13066. 01914 (16013002) 5758. 66276 (16013002) 2619. 30089 (16013002) 250. 0 | 21863. 78008 (16012923) 13099. 47818 (16012923) 4335. 91649 (16012923) 1341. 60678 (16012923) 260. 0 | 21943. 34753 (16012921) 15405. 94820 (16012921) 7393. 24889 (16012921) 3508. 40853 (16012921) 270. 0 | 24082. 14288 (16021022) 15948. 44021 (16021022) 7554. 83185 (16010619) 3518. 28461 (16010619) 280. 0 | 24828. 49566 (16010619) 12039. 73324 (16010619) 3324. 05835 (16021619) 1564. 87295 (16021619) 290. 0 | 15734. 48581 (16021619) 9923. 57421 (16021619) 3695. 29509 (16021619) 1576. 48693 (16120103) 300. 0 | 15657. 86118 (16021619) 11050. 38932 (16032901) 6607. 08630 (16020623) 3186. 26878 (16020623) 310. 0 | 24849. 87493 (16020623) 14967. 16227 (16020623) 6411. 92617 (16030107) 2921. 20982 (16030107) 320. 0 | 23204. 06576 (16030107) 14015. 21334 (16031502) 5944. 35293 (16031502) 2365. 99156 (16030224) 330. 0 | 23490. 72175 (16031502) 12031. 75807 (16030224) 4660. 86962 (16112524) 2118. 74703 (16120323) 340. 0 | 17097. 93716 (16030224) 13093. 16027 (16021124) 7037. 23080 (16021124) 2636. 41647 (16021124) 350. 0 | 24247. 29407 (16021124) 15569. 24923 (16021605) 7701. 25510 (16011303) 3573. 32016 (16011808) 360. 0 | 25829. 81785 (16011303) 17249. 36073 (16011808) 7825. 76600 (16010307) 3650. 99415 (16010224) 70. 0 | 48255. 54129 (16011108) See notes (next page) Tie Spreadsheet to AERMOD to Four. Pads Model.

Tie Spreadsheet to AERMOD to Four Pads Model Source from http: //www. modelsw. com/Oil. Gas. Monitor/Pressures. Volumes. Flows. xlsx Start at EQ 15 From link below (first page) inputs into AERMOD area model for 12 months: EMISFACT LOWEAPRD MONTH 0. 003529481 0. 003357793 0. 00319415 0. 003042574 0. 002899042 0. 002767578 EMISFACT LOWEAPRD MONTH 0. 002644157 0. 002532804 0. 002429495 0. 002338253 0. 002255055 0. 002183924 Results: http: //www. modelsw. com/Oil. Gas. Monitor/Output/Study 102_17. TXT Page 10 From AERMOD Study output (previous page): 70. 0 | 48255. 54129 (16011108) From http: //www. modelsw. com/Oil. Gas. Monitor/Freeform. Query. php (you will have to register) Query (note -- set year to 17): SELECT i. Date, x, y, Conc, SQRT(x*x + y*y) AS dist, ROUND(atan 2(x, y)*57. 29577951) AS dir FROM tbl. Conc WHERE Study = 102 AND i. Date = 17011108 ORDER BY Conc DESC i. Date 17011108 x 266. 3089 409. 518 839. 1455 1555. 191 y 96. 92851 149. 0524 305. 424 566. 0433 Conc 10225151. 87 5629697. 83 2059847. 28 858254. 46 dist 283. 4 435. 8 893 1655 Conc = 10225151. 87 Losses = 0. 004719298 (slide 17 - Units) Methane Fraction = 0. 821625 (slide 14 – Average 4 Wells Products) Conc * Losses = 48255. 54 (matches AERMOD above) Conc * Losses * Fraction = 48255. 54 * 0. 821625 = Methane 39647. 96 On Four. Pads Model - Month 13 Click on closest circle to Lowell pad at 70 degrees. Methane 39, 648 ug/m^3 = 56, 129 ppb dir 70 70

Four Pads Model http: //www. modelsw. com/Oil. Gas. Monitor/index. html Black - Drilling Fracking Flowback Red - Production Losses

VOC Concentration at Prospect Ridge Academy Volatile organic compounds (VOCs)

VOC Concentration at Prospect Ridge Academy

VOC Concentration at Prospect Ridge Academy Suspect December is lower because of break in Drilling, Fracking, Flowback in November and December at Sheridan.

Lowell Drill Frack Flowback Feet from Pad Center max hourly average ug/m^3 Methane Ethane Propane i-Pentane n-Pentane Benzene Toluene Ethylbenzene m+p-Xylene o-Xylene max hourly average ppb Methane Ethane Propane i-Pentane n-Pentane Benzene Toluene Ethylbenzene m+p-Xylene o-Xylene 500 1, 000 2, 500 5, 000 39, 473 2, 851 1, 096 285 227 73 1, 082 31 365 63 19, 517 1, 410 542 141 112 36 535 16 181 31 6, 344 458 176 46 36 12 174 5 59 10 2, 623 189 73 19 15 5 72 2 24 4 55, 890 2, 153 565 90 71 21 267 7 78 13 27, 634 1, 065 279 44 35 11 132 3 39 7 8, 982 346 91 14 11 3 43 1 13 2 3, 713 143 38 6 5 1 18 0 5 1

Lowell Production at 0. 47% losses Feet from Pad Edge 500 1, 000 2, 500 5, 000 max hourly average ug/m^3 at 0. 47% losses Methane 39, 648 21, 829 7, 987 3, 328 Ethane 5, 013 2, 760 1, 010 421 Propane 1, 308 720 263 110 i-Butane 173 95 35 14 n-Butane 244 134 49 20 i-Pentane 77 43 16 6 n-Pentane 71 39 14 6 Hexane 99 54 20 8 56, 129 30, 903 11, 307 4, 711 3, 786 2, 084 763 318 Propane 673 371 136 57 i-Butane 67 37 14 6 n-Butane 95 52 19 8 i-Pentane 24 13 5 2 n-Pentane 22 12 5 2 Hexane 26 14 5 2 max hourly average ppb losses Methane Ethane

Lowell Production at 2. 0% losses Feet from Pad Edge 500 1, 000 2, 500 5, 000 max hourly average ug/m^3 at 2. 0% losses Methane 168, 025 92, 510 33, 848 14, 103 Ethane 21, 243 11, 696 4, 279 1, 783 Propane 5, 542 3, 051 1, 116 465 i-Butane 731 403 147 61 n-Butane 1, 033 569 208 87 i-Pentane 327 180 66 27 n-Pentane 302 166 61 25 Hexane 419 231 84 35 237, 871 130, 965 47, 919 19, 966 Ethane 16, 045 8, 834 3, 232 1, 347 Propane 2, 854 1, 571 575 240 i-Butane 286 157 58 24 n-Butane 404 222 81 34 i-Pentane 103 57 21 9 n-Pentane 95 52 19 8 110 61 22 9 max hourly average ppb Methane Hexane Lowell shown here. All four pads are included in Spreadsheet - Concentrations at Four Pads

Prospect Ridge Academy Sheridan Drill Frack Flowback VOC Conc ug/m^3 Sheridan Production at _0. 47% losses Conc VOC ug/m^3 ppb Ethane 38 Propane 30 i-Pentane 34 4, 6 6, 62 7 Methane 325 5 Ethane 1 6 7 Propane 1 1 i-Butane n-Pentane 27 8 9 3 Methane Benzene 81 i-Pentane 1 3 2 n-Pentane Toluene Ethylbenze ne 28 4 1 m+p-Xylene 43 9 7 2 o-Xylene n-Butane Hexane 706 Sheridan Production at _2. 0% losses VOC 62 6, 6 4, 4 Conc ug/m^3 Methane 2 Ethane 1 595 49 155 80 Propane 8 20 8 i-Butane 7 29 11 n-Butane 3 9 3 i-Pentane 9 8 3 n-Pentane 6 12 3 Hexane 0 Details of this and other pads contaminants at Prospect Ridge Academy at: http: //www. modelsw. com/Oil. Gas. Monitor/Concentrations. At. Prospect. Ridge. xlsx ppb 19, 9428, 2 32 2, 52 1, 9 04 65 3 39 8 34 12 48 3 12 3 11 5 13

Sound Barrier Decreases Emissions Lowell Pad with 3 ft and 32 foot Barrier 1400000 Micrograms per Cubic Meter 1200000 1000000 sum 283_3 sum 436_3 800000 sum 893_3 sum 1655_3 600000 sum 283_32 sum 436_32 400000 sum 893_32 sum 1655_32 200000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Month 7 8 9 10 11 Ratio from 2. 7 improvement in January to 4. 1 in December 12

The best for public safety: A Tent Use the Denver Airport Roof Concept All the work will be conducted underneath with a vent to a flare at the top. Mount an infrared camera and sensor inside. The production of 40 wells under a tent could bring OSHA, hazmat suits, Scott air packs, and personnel monitoring. It could also bring the EPA and scientific studies. Potential decrease emissions rates by 36 times.

In Summary – I recommend: • Know the pipeline path before approving pads and well count. • Get pipeline calculations from Extraction. • 660 foot setback for gathering pipelines. • For pipeline presentation please contact josh_joswick 2004@yahoo. com • Limit drilling, fracking, and flowback from May through August between the hours of 8: 00 am to 4: 30 pm. • Limit the study to those products that have OSHA limits. Will modeling the entire canister ingredients provide useful information? • AERMOD using Erie Airport Surface data and Stapleton Upper Air data • A Tent

Unknowns • • • Will a 32 foot sound barrier exist? Will it completely surround the pad with air locks or have open sides and doors. Area or point for Flowback? one well, multiple trucks How to sum contaminates from other pads Have I used the right type of ground cover in AERMET model? Why are Benzene, Toluene, Ethyl-benzene, Xylenes not listed in the products but listed in contaminants? Because they are in the groundwater. Which bring up the questions: – Where is Extraction getting their fracking water? – Has that water been tested? Why isn’t Propane listed in Flowback in Garfield County? (It is shown as background not in the products) Which brings up the real problem: – In a 3 year study a total of 1. 2 hours of drilling data, 1. 2 hours of fracking, and 2. 0 hours of flowback seems thin. – A typical well is drilled in 11 days (264 hours), fracked in 3 to 8 days (72 to 192 hours), flowback 7 to 10 days (168 to 240 hours) – If we had that magnitude of hours in the study there would be a lot clearer trends.