An Evaluation of the 2003 Release of Models3

An Evaluation of the 2003 Release of Models-3 CMAQ Brian Eder and Shaocai Yu Atmospheric Modeling Division National Exposure Research Laboratory U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division Air Resources Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

INTRODUCTION The 2003 Release of CMAQ featured many changes: - updated science - corrected implementations - efficiency enhancements - bug fixes Largest impacts involved the aerosol modeling, especially: - aerosol nitrate modeling updated with more recent science - secondary organic aerosols (SOA) modeling now allows for reversible semi-volatility Changes resulted in substantially lower concentrations of aerosol nitrates and SOAs bringing them more in line with observations.

INTRODUCTION In order to quantify these changes and characterize its over-all performance, the 2003 Release of CMAQ has been evaluated: Over two simulation periods: - Summer 1999 (four weeks) Winter 2002 (six weeks) Against observations from five networks: - IMPROVE CASTNet STN AIRS SEARCH Against modeled data from the 2002 Release.

CMAQ Simulation Attributes Emissions: Gas-phase emissions are based on the 1999 EPA NEI. Primary anthropogenic PM 2. 5 emissions are speciated. Mobile emissions are based on MOBILE 5 b. Biogenic emissions are based on BEIS 3. 11. Chemistry: SAPRC 99 gas-phase chemistry mechanism. Meteorology: Derived from MM 5 and processed through MCIP (2. 2). Resolution: Horizontal: Contiguous U. S. Domain. 32 km by 32 km grids(Summer) 36 km by 36 km grids (Winter) Vertical: Set on a sigma coordinate. 21 layers (Summer) 24 layers (Winter)

Sulfate - June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release CASTNet IMPROVE June 15 to June 29, 1999 CMAQ Mean 6. 33 CAST 4. 60 CMAQ 2. 71 IMP 1. 96 CAST IMP n 264 n 490 R 0. 90 MB 1. 74 MB 0. 75 95 th 13. 5 9. 38 12. 4 7. 45 NMB(%) 38. 0 NMB(%) 38. 4 50 th 6. 20 4. 60 0. 85 0. 98 RMSE 2. 89 RMSE 2. 37 5 th 0. 47 0. 58 0. 32 0. 21 NME(%) 46. 4 NME (%) 61. 9

Sulfate June 15 – July 16, 1999 Normalized Mean Error Normalized Mean Bias

Sulfate - Jan. 4 - Feb. 19, 2002 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release CASTNet IMPROVE STN January 4 to January 20, 2002 CMAQ Mean 1. 86 CAST 1. 71 CMAQ 1. 23 IMP 0. 93 CMAQ 1. 96 STN 2. 23 CAST IMP STN n 407 n 728 n 1149 R 0. 83 R 0. 85 R 0. 66 MB 0. 15 MB 0. 29 MB -0. 26 95 th 3. 44 3. 05 4. 11 3. 31 4. 47 5. 15 NMB(%) 9. 2 NMB(%) 31. 5 NMB(%) -12. 0 50 th 1. 96 1. 83 0. 74 0. 43 1. 63 1. 94 RMSE 0. 60 RMSE 0. 72 RMSE 1. 16 5 th 0. 44 0. 22 0. 28 0. 08 0. 52 0. 46 NME(%) 25. 7 NME(%) 53. 1 NME(%) 35. 9

Sulfate Jan. 4 - Feb. 19, 2002 Normalized Mean Error Normalized Mean Bias

Ammonium - June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release CASTNet June 15 to June 29, 1999 CMAQ Mean 1. 68 CAST 1. 37 CAST n 264 R 0. 86 MB 0. 31 95 th 3. 70 2. 87 NMB(%) 22. 7 50 th 1. 68 1. 34 RMSE 0. 70 5 th 0. 18 0. 19 NME(%) 36. 5 Remaining spatial plots are provided in an Appendix

Ammonium - Jan. 4 - Feb. 19, 2002 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release CASTNet STN January 4 to January 20, 2002 CMAQ Mean 1. 16 CAST 0. 83 CMAQ 1. 52 STN 1. 45 CAST STN n 407 n 1149 R 0. 85 R 0. 41 MB 0. 33 MB 0. 07 95 th 2. 52 1. 96 3. 53 3. 81 NMB(%) 40. 0 NMB(%) 5. 2 50 th 1. 16 0. 74 1. 33 1. 02 RMSE 0. 51 RMSE 1. 46 5 th 0. 19 0. 09 0. 28 0. 14 NME(%) 47. 2 NME(%) 57. 7

Nitrate - June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release CASTNet IMPROVE June 15 to June 29, 1999 CMAQ Mean 0. 35 CAST 0. 50 CMAQ 0. 17 IMP 0. 27 CAST IMP n 264 N 415 R 0. 27 R 0. 36 MB -0. 15 MB -0. 11 95 th 1. 14 1. 51 0. 73 0. 81 NMB(%) -30. 8 NMB(%) -39. 1 50 th 0. 17 0. 36 0. 12 0. 17 RMSE 0. 51 5 th 0. 01 0. 06 0. 01 0. 04 NME(%) 75. 7 NME(%) 95. 0

Nitrate - Jan. 4 - Feb. 19, 2002 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release CASTNet IMPROVE STN January 4 to January 20, 2002 CMAQ Mean 2. 00 CAST 1. 36 CMAQ 0. 87 IMP 0. 68 CMAQ 3. 08 STN 3. 34 CAST IMP STN n 407 n 688 n 1044 R 0. 76 R 0. 54 R 0. 39 MB 0. 64 MB 0. 20 MB -0. 27 95 th 5. 63 4. 34 3. 99 2. 69 9. 01 9. 87 NMB(%) 46. 8 NMB(%) 28. 9 NMB(%) -8. 0 50 th 1. 44 0. 75 0. 30 0. 29 2. 39 1. 84 RMSE 1. 36 RMSE 1. 26 RMSE 4. 37 5 th 0. 09 0. 07 0. 01 0. 03 0. 09 0. 34 NME(%) 70. 4 NME(%) 96. 5 NME(%) 66. 9

PM 2. 5 - June 15 – July 16, 1999 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release IMPROVE June 15 to June 29, 1999 CMAQ Mean 6. 75 IMP 7. 48 IMP n 457 R 0. 71 MB -0. 73 95 th 20. 2 19. 10 NMB(%) -9. 8 50 th 4. 49 5. 22 RMSE 4. 70 5 th 1. 36 1. 78 NME(%) 40. 3 2003 Release

PM 2. 5 - Jan. 4 - Feb. 19, 2002 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release STN IMPROVE January 4 to January 20, 2002 CMAQ Mean 5. 20 IMP 3. 71 CMAQ 12. 96 STN 12. 45 IMP STN n 714 n 927 R 0. 68 R 0. 37 MB 1. 49 MB 0. 51 4. 1 95 th 14. 8 11. 7 26. 9 27. 2 NMB(%) 40. 3 NMB(%) 50 th 3. 37 2. 25 11. 0 10. 0 RMSE 3. 81 RMSE 10. 45 5 th 0. 95 0. 53 3. 35 3. 8 NME(%) 68. 9 NME(%) 50. 0

Nitric Acid - June 15 – July 16, 1999 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release CASTNet June 15 to June 29, 1999 CMAQ Mean 3. 37 CAST 2. 26 CAST n 264 R 0. 79 MB 1. 11 95 th 7. 28 4. 86 NMB(%) 49. 0 50 th 3. 26 2. 03 RMSE 1. 77 5 th 0. 33 NME(%) 58. 7 2003 Release

Nitric Acid - Jan. 4 - Feb. 19, 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release CASTNet January 4 to January 20, 2002 CMAQ Mean 1. 81 CAST 1. 25 CAST n 407 R 0. 64 MB 0. 55 95 th 3. 67 2. 80 NMB(%) 44. 2 50 th 1. 68 1. 10 RMSE 1. 07 5 th 0. 22 0. 19 NME(%) 61. 3 2003 Release

EC - June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release IMPROVE June 15 to June 29, 1999 CMAQ Mean 0. 29 IMP n 389 R 0. 69 MB 0. 00 95 th 0. 87 0. 67 NMB(%) 1. 00 50 th 0. 19 0. 23 RMSE 0. 24 5 th 0. 04 0. 06 NME(%) 52. 6

EC- Jan. 4 - Feb. 19, 2002 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release IMPROVE STN January 4 to January 20, 2002 CMAQ Mean 0. 29 IMP 0. 22 CMAQ 1. 13 STN 0. 71 IMP STN n 731 n 1148 R 0. 55 R 0. 40 MB 0. 07 MB 0. 42 95 th 1. 02 0. 67 3. 32 1. 98 NMB(%) 31. 0 NMB(%) 59. 1 50 th 0. 12 0. 14 0. 77 0. 52 RMSE 0. 48 RMSE 1. 17 5 th 0. 02 0. 03 0. 15 0. 16 NME(%) 81. 0 NME(%) 95. 0

OC - June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release IMPROVE June 15 to June 29, 1999 CMAQ Mean 1. 42 IMP 1. 44 IMP n 396 R 0. 32 MB -0. 02 95 th 3. 89 3. 28 NMB(%) -1. 5 50 th 1. 10 1. 15 RMSE 1. 35 5 th 0. 22 0. 38 NME(%) 67. 2

OC- Jan. 4 - Feb. 19, 2002 2003 Release 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release IMPROVE STN January 4 to January 20, 2002 CMAQ Mean 0. 93 IMP 0. 80 CMAQ 1. 61 STN 3. 25 IMP STN n 731 n 1106 R 0. 56 R 0. 47 MB 0. 14 MB -1. 64 95 th 2. 74 2. 54 4. 22 8. 54 NMB(%) 17. 2 NMB(%) -50. 0 50 th 0. 62 0. 44 1. 22 2. 45 RMSE 0. 93 RMSE 3. 32 5 th 0. 18 0. 08 0. 44 0. 42 NME(%) 70. 0 NME(%) 60. 4

Hourly Ozone June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release AIRS CMAQ OBS Mean 42. 6 35. 8 n 531, 496 SD 17. 1 20. 7 R 0. 69 CV 40. 1% 57. 7 MB 6. 8 95 th 71. 9 74. 0 NMB(%) 18. 8 50 th 41. 5 33. 0 RMSE 16. 7 5 th 16. 2 6. 5 NME(%) 36. 4

Hourly Ozone June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release Boxplots of Bias Over Hours

Hourly Ozone June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release Boxplots of Bias Over Days

Max. 1 - hr Ozone June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release AIRS CMAQ OBS Mean 61. 3 59. 0 n 23, 196 SD 16. 2 20. 7 R 0. 72 CV 26. 4% 35. 0% MB 2. 3 95 th 88. 9 95. 0 NMB(%) 3. 8 50 th 60. 1 58. 0 RMSE 14. 5 5 th 37. 5 28. 0 NME(%) 18. 8

Max. 1 - hr Ozone June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release Boxplots of Bias Over Days

Max. 8 - hr Ozone June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release AIRS CMAQ OBS Mean 54. 5 50. 2 n 23, 196 SD 13. 7 18. 2 R 0. 75 CV 25. 1% 36. 3% 95 th 77. 2 50 th 5 th MB 4. 3 82. 0 NMB(%) 8. 7 54. 1 48. 9 RMSE 12. 8 33. 4 22. 5 NME(%) 20. 2

Max. 8 - hr Ozone June 15 – July 16, 1999 2003 Release Boxplots of Bias Over Days

Hourly Ozone June 15 – 29, 1999 2002 Release vs. 2003 Release Scatterplot of Hourly Ozone Boxplots of Hourly Ozone Difference Over Hours

2002 Release vs. 2003 Release Ozone – Max. 1 -hour June 15 – 29, 1999 Ozone – Max. 8 -hour June 15 – 29, 1999

SUMMARY The 2003 Release of CMAQ featured many changes, the largest of which impacted: - aerosol nitrate - secondary organic aerosols (SOA) resulting in substantially lower concentrations of aerosol nitrates and SOAs bringing them more in line with observations. Other species continue to be simulated reasonably well: - majority of correlations are greater than 0. 70 - majority of model simulations are within 2: 1 - majority NMB within ± 35% - majority NME less than 50% (depending on the specie and observational network. )

Contact Information: l Brian Eder eder@hpcc. epa. gov l 919. 541. 3994 l

Appendix

Nitrate

Ammonium

Nitric Acid

PM 2. 5

EC

OC