American Government Roots and Reform 2014 Election Update
- Slides: 48
American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Public Opinion and Political Socialization 10 Zhang Jun/Newscom American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
10 Learning Objectives 10. 1 Trace the development of modern public opinion research. 10. 2 Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls. American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
10 Learning Objectives 10. 3 Assess the potential shortcomings of polling. 10. 4 Analyze the process by which people form political opinions. American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
10 Learning Objectives 10. 5 Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics. American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
10. 1 Roots of Public Opinion Research ¤ The Earliest Public Opinion Research ¤ The Gallup Organization ¤ The American National Election Studies American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
The Earliest Public Opinion Research ¤ Polling to predict winner of elections ¤ Polling to discover public opinions n Walter Lippmann's Public Opinion ¤ Literary Digest n Straw poll n Sample American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 1
10. 1 Is polling always accurate? Bettmann/Corbis American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
The Gallup Organization ¤ George Gallup n Dissertation on how to measure the readership of newspapers n Expanded research to study public opinion about politics ¤ Increased use of polling to market products and candidates American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 1
FIGURE 10. 1 How successful has the Gallup Poll been? American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 1
The American National Election Studies ¤ Focuses on attitudes of the electorate n n How voters voted Party affiliation Opinions of parties and candidates Surveys before and after mid-term and presidential elections American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 1
10. 1 Which term describes the people who are polled? a. Survey b. Straw poll c. Sample d. Registered voters American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 1
10. 1 Which term describes the people who are polled? a. Survey b. Straw poll c. Sample d. Registered voters American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 1
Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls ¤ Designing the Survey and Sample ¤ Contacting Respondents ¤ Analyzing the Data American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 2
Designing the Survey and Sample 10. 2 ¤ Determining the content and phrasing of the questions n Wording is crucial n "Push polls" ¤ Selecting the sample n Population n Random sampling n Stratified sampling American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Contacting Respondents ¤ Telephone polls n Random digit dialing survey n Tracking Polls American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 2
How are polls conducted? 10. 2 Melanie Stetson Freeman/The Christian Science Monitor via Getty Images American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
FIGURE 10. 2 What does a daily tracking poll look like? American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 2
Contacting Respondents ¤ In-person interviews n Exit polls ¤ Internet polls n Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 2
10. 2 Analyzing the Data ¤ Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns ¤ Data analyzed by computers n Subgroups of population, such as men versus women, age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed ¤ Reporting the data n News organizations or campaigns American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
10. 2 Which type of poll is designed to give a skewed result? a. Push poll b. Straw poll c. Tracking poll d. Stratified sampling American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 2
10. 2 Which type of poll is designed to give a skewed result? a. Push poll b. Straw poll c. Tracking poll d. Stratified sampling American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 2
Shortcomings of Polling ¤ ¤ ¤ Survey Error Limited Response Options Lack of Information Difficulty Measuring Intensity Lack of Interest in Political Issues American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 3
10. 3 Survey Error ¤ Margin of error n Natural errors in statistical measurement ¤ Sampling error n Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Limited Respondent Options ¤ Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) n May not give respondents sufficient room to answer ¤ "Feeling thermometer" n Respondents rate feelings 0— 100 American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 3
10. 3 Lack of Information ¤ Filter questions n Gauge how much respondents know about or have thought about an issue ¤ Responses to personal questions/moral value questions ¤ Feelings stronger about some issues American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Difficulty Measuring Intensity ¤ Issues with strong feelings, such as: n Big government n Death penalty n Support for the war on terrorism ¤ Smaller issues, such as: n Electoral College n Absentee ballot laws American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 3
Can polls measure intensity of opinion? 10. 3 Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Lack of Interest in Political Issues ¤ Many people lack an opinion on certain policies. n Policies that do not affect people directly n Policies that do not involve moral values ¤ Foreign policy n Less likely to generate interest ¤ Domestic policy n More likely to generate interest American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 3
10. 3 Which of these can be a problem in designing, executing, or analyzing the results of a poll? a. Lack of interest in political issues b. Difficulty in measuring intensity c. Limited response options d. Survey error e. All of the above American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 3
10. 3 Which of these can be a problem in designing, executing, or analyzing the results of a poll? a. Lack of interest in political issues b. Difficulty in measuring intensity c. Limited response options d. Survey error e. All of the above American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 3
Forming Political Opinions ¤ ¤ ¤ Demographic Characteristics Family, Peers, and School The Mass Media Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers Political Knowledge American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
Demographic Characteristics ¤ Gender n Women historically more liberal than men ¤ Race and Ethnicity n Differences among and within races and ethnicities ¤ Age ¤ Religion American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
TABLE 10. 1 Do men and women think differently about political issues? American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
Family, Peers, and School ¤ Family influence n Children learn political beliefs at an early age. ¤ Peers are influential in middle or high school ¤ Political socialization in school American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
How do you encourage young women to think about careers in politics? Allen Brisson-Smith/The New York Times/Redux Pictures American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
FIGURE 10. 3 What are the ideological identifications of first-year college students? American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
10. 4 The Mass Media ¤ Traditional news sources n Americans are turning away from them. ¤ Non-traditional news media n n TV talk shows Talk radio Online magazines Blogs ¤ Cable and Internet n Often skewed American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers ¤ Political leaders use media to influence public. ¤ President uses media as a “bully pulpit. ” American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
10. 4 Political Knowledge ¤ Political knowledge and political participation n Have a reciprocal effect on each other ¤ Americans' level of civic knowledge n Lower than 50 years ago ¤ Gender gap n Also affected by education, number of children, and marital status American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
TABLE 10. 2 What is the extent of Americans' political knowledge? American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
10. 4 The process by which individuals develop their political views is called what? a. Communication and receptivity b. Public education c. Political socialization d. Civic knowledge American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
10. 4 The process by which individuals develop their political views is called what? a. Communication and receptivity b. Public education c. Political socialization d. Civic knowledge American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 4
Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics ¤ The public has become more of a critical player in national and international politics. ¤ Polling a key part of that involvement. American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved 10. 5
10. 5 The influence of public opinion in 10. 5 politics has increased over the past 30 years due largely to what? a. The increase in Americans' civic knowledge b. The increase in alternative political news sources c. The increase in the number of polls d. The decrease in traditional mass media American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
10. 5 The influence of public opinion in 10. 5 politics has increased over the past 30 years due largely to what? a. The increase in Americans' civic knowledge b. The increase in alternative political news sources c. The increase in the number of polls d. The decrease in traditional mass media American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
10 Discussion Questions What role do polls play in policy making? Should public opinion be considered when the government makes policy decisions? How much influence should public opinion have? American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
10 Further Review ¤Listen to the Chapter ¤Study and Review the Flashcards ¤Study and Review the Practice Tests American Government: Roots and Reform, 2014 Election Update , 12 e O'Connor | Sabato | Yanus Copyright © 2016, 2014, 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved