America and the World Trump Presidency Challenges Dr

America and the World: Trump Presidency Challenges Dr Stephen Hoadley Associate Professor of Political Studies University of Auckland 10 April 2019

In the 1930 s… n n n The US was not a member of the League of Nations, was ‘neutral’ The US suffered the Great Depression Congress passed the Neutrality Acts FDR was militarily constrained Nazi, Fascist, and Japanese aggression spread unopposed.

Nazi Blitzkrieg

In 1945 the US looked outward n n n Set up the United Nations Initiated economic aid Democratised Germany and Japan Signed defence treaties Helped allies resist the Soviet Union and China, and the appeals of communism in the Cold War An era of ‘hegemonic stability’ began

US was wary of expansion of communism in 1940 s, adopted a ‘containment’ policy, fought wars in Korea and Vietnam, allied with Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Philippines. . . and Australia and NZ.

The Cold War 1945 -1991 NATO vs Warsaw Pact

Containment worked: the US won the Cold War without fighting the Soviet Union

September 11, 2001, triggered a new chapter in US strategy: the ‘War on Terror’

Strategic challenges in five theatres now face the Trump presidency 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Middle East Iran & Afghanistan Russia (and its borderlands) North Korea China

Strategic Challenges of the Middle East Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine, Syria, Yemen, ISIS

Oil tankers must pass narrow straits past Iran US-LED MINSWEEPING EXERCISE CONDUCTED SEPT 2012

Pakistan Afghanistan

Zionism and Israel 1948 a new element

West Bank showing Israeli settlements and security barrier

Syrian civil war(s)

The Strategic Challenge of Russia

The rise of Russia n n n n Nationalistic authoritarianism led by President Putin Windfall profits from oil and gas Long-range military power projection…North Sea, Venezuela Covert interventions in Georgia, Baltics, Ukraine, Moldova, Central Asia in support of Russian residents Overt incursion into Georgia and encouragement of secession European dependency on Russian energy Cheating on the INF Treaty

Russia’s ‘hybrid warfare’

Russia’s ‘hybrid warfare’

The Strategic Challenge of ASIA and North Korea

The Challenge of Korea The Korean War 1950 -1953

Recent missile tests suggest capability to hit Hawaii or continental US

N Korea’s massive military

N Korea’s artillery capability

Is Kim smarter than Trump?

The Strategic Challenge of China

The rise of China from 1979 n n n Becoming prosperous by exporting consumer goods to West (Open Policy) Spending 10 -20% of budget on military Modernizing platforms and doctrines Improving missiles and nuclear weapons Extending Navy deployments to Indian O. Claiming large parts of East and South China Seas Negotiating trade agreements with Asian neighbours Resisting US advocacy of democracy Holds much of US debt via Treasury bonds Tolerant of US military presence in Asia…but how long will that last? Potential rival to US leadership in Asia?

What about Taiwan (who? ) n n n n No official diplomatic relations since 1979, only economic and cultural offices in Taipei and Washington. Valued as a trade and investment partner. Respected for democracy, human rights, and market policies. Purchases near-top-line US weapons. Taiwan Relations Act 1979 obliges US to defend Taiwan if attacked. US discourages Taiwan independence or provocation of China. US China-sceptics tend to favour Taiwan. . . and Japan, S Korea and ASEAN. . . to ‘balance’ China.

What US learned from history 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. US is vulnerable, exposed to surprise attacks (‘eternal vigilance is the price of liberty’) US should anticipate threats and fight off-shore US must lead abroad to prevent rise of aggressors. US must be self-reliant and sometimes unilateral, even pre-emptive US has to maintain a defence industrial base via a growing economy, mass industrial production, worldwide markets, and access to capital and resources US must be a science and technology leader The US needs allies and trade partners around the world

Global US military presence

NATO: full members=blue; associates= green & rust; Partnership for Peace=olive

All US presidents have led US multilateral cooperation. Will Trump maintain them, or undermine them? • Alliances, e. g. NATO, Japan, S Korea, Australia • Partnerships, e. g. NZ and ‘places not bases’ • Multilateral cooperation e. g. UN Security Council • UN sanctions of rogue states and groups • Regional cooperation, e. g. with EU RRF, APEC, 6 -party talks, EAS • Coalitions of the willing, e. g. Iraq wars, anti-piracy patrol, PSI • Military assistance and training, e. g. IMET • Technology sharing, e. g. , missile defence • Intelligence sharing, e. g. Interpol • Arms control agreements, e. g. NPT, CTBT, MTCR, New Start • Confidence building measures, e. g. ARF • Promotion of good governance and democracy

Summary of Trump’s Dec 2017 ‘An America First National Security Strategy’ 1. 2. 3. 4. Protect the American people, the homeland, and the American way of life. (‘control of our borders’) Promote American prosperity Preserve peace through strength by rebuilding our military. Advance American influence (‘we will compete and lead in multilateral organisations…’ See full text at https: //whitehouse. gov

US ‘think-tank’ analysts are divided

My worries about Trump 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Nationalism, ‘US-first’ unilateralism Ignorance of international nuances Disrespect of allies, trade partners and international organisations Impulsiveness of decision-making Populist playing to his election ‘base’ Bellicosity of rhetoric: ‘fire and fury’

What are your worries about Trump?

International poll results June 2017 n n Do you have a favourable view of Americans in general? 58% Do you have a favourable view of the United States? 64% 49% Are you confident President Trump will do the right thing in world affairs? 64% 22% Do you expect NZ relations with the US will stay roughly the same in spite of Trump? c 50%

So, has Trump made America greater? Choose options below 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. US now definitely commands more respect Trump’s policies are promising; give him time Trump effect is mixed; US could go up or down US leadership has declined, but only temporarily Trump has irrevocably damaged US credibility Trump’s policies have forfeited US world leadership to China

Do you think America will transcend Trump and maintain responsible world leadership? n n n Certainly yes Maybe yes Too early to tell Maybe not Certainly not [Other opinion]