Allan Gray Update May 2014 Edward Adams Allan

  • Slides: 52
Download presentation
Allan Gray Update May 2014 Edward Adams Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised

Allan Gray Update May 2014 Edward Adams Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2010 2011

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 2

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 2 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Group Profile • Largest privately owned investment management firm in South Africa • Established

Group Profile • Largest privately owned investment management firm in South Africa • Established in 1973 • Affiliated to the international Orbis Group (US$30. 0 bn) • R 435 billion assets under management • 883 Employees • 21 Investment Professionals 3 Source: Allan Gray Research (data to 31. 03. 14) Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Business principles Focused on global asset management Performance orientated Highest ethical standards Long-term approach

Business principles Focused on global asset management Performance orientated Highest ethical standards Long-term approach 4 § No conflicts of interest § 100% of management attention § Favour performance fees § Subscribe to CFA standards § Full transparency § Equal treatment for all clients § Ownership § Products § Relationships Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Our purpose is to create wealth for our clients 5 Allan Gray Limited is

Our purpose is to create wealth for our clients 5 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Our Objective Long-term wealth creation for our clients Over the period 15 June 1974

Our Objective Long-term wealth creation for our clients Over the period 15 June 1974 to 31 March 2014, R 100, 000 became: Allan Gray – All Share Index – R 1 520. 5 million R 69. 9 million (27. 4% p. a. vs 17. 9% p. a. as at 31 March 2014) 6 Allan Gray research, (SG 090414 m) Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Most activities sit on a continuum between skill and good / bad fortune Craps

Most activities sit on a continuum between skill and good / bad fortune Craps Flipping coins Roulette Good / Bad Fortune 7 Usain Bolt Bobby Fischer Yo-Yo Ma Professional Asset Managemen t Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Skill

31 March 2014 Time can help differentiate between skill and good / bad fortune

31 March 2014 Time can help differentiate between skill and good / bad fortune 80% 70% 50% 40% 20% 5 yr range 30% Max 29. 4% 3 yr range Orbis Global Gross Relative Performance (Annualised) 60% Max 20. 0% 7. 7% Annualised gross relative return sinception 10% 0% (10%) Min (3. 3%) Min 0. 3% (20%) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Yrs Source: Orbis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Fund share prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. Returns may decrease or increase as a result of currency fluctuations. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital is at risk. Gross returns for Orbis Funds are calculated gross of all income, net of all expenses, assume reinvestment of dividends (i. e. calculated before the deduction of all management and performance fees). 8 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

4 P’s Philosophy Process People 9 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services

4 P’s Philosophy Process People 9 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Performance

Investment philosophy Theory of share price and intrinsic value Value of business measured by

Investment philosophy Theory of share price and intrinsic value Value of business measured by share price Intrinsic value of business Margin of safety Sell here Value Extreme events Buy here Warren Buffett’s nine most important words about investments: “Investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike” Time 10 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Investment process Analysts Quarterly Strategy Meeting § Policy Group Discussion of asset classes Analysts

Investment process Analysts Quarterly Strategy Meeting § Policy Group Discussion of asset classes Analysts § § Buy list § Risk rating limits maximum exposure to one company Portfolio Manager § Portfolio Manager Buy/Sell Action Trading/Allocations § Investment controls Clients 11 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Analysis Company visits Fundamental Report Audit Committee Portfolio Manager Analysts

Investment process Analysts Quarterly Strategy Meeting § Policy Group Discussion of asset classes Analysts

Investment process Analysts Quarterly Strategy Meeting § Policy Group Discussion of asset classes Analysts § § Buy list § Risk rating limits maximum exposure to one company Portfolio Manager § Portfolio Manager Buy/Sell Action Trading/Allocations § Investment controls Clients 12 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Analysis Company visits Fundamental Report Audit Committee Portfolio Manager Analysts

Investment process Analysts Quarterly Strategy Meeting § Policy Group Discussion of asset classes Analysts

Investment process Analysts Quarterly Strategy Meeting § Policy Group Discussion of asset classes Analysts § § Buy list § Risk rating limits maximum exposure to one company Portfolio Manager § Portfolio Manager Buy/Sell Action Trading/Allocations § Investment controls Clients 13 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Analysis Company visits Fundamental Report Audit Committee Portfolio Manager Analysts

South African equity portfolio managers 14 Years Investment experience Years in the Allan Gray

South African equity portfolio managers 14 Years Investment experience Years in the Allan Gray Investment Team Name Academic and professional Designation qualifications Ian Liddle BBus. Sc CFA Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, Analyst 12 12 Duncan Artus BBus. Sc PGDA CFA CMT Portfolio Manager, Analyst 13 12 Andrew Lapping BSc (Eng) BCom CFA Portfolio Manager, Analyst 12 12 Simon Raubenheimer BCom (Hons) CFA Portfolio Manager, Analyst 11 11 Ruan Stander BSc (Hons) FIA FRM (GARP) 5 5 Jacques Plaut BSc (Hons) 5 5 Source: Allan Gray (TM 4 120313 m) Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Relative Equity and Associate Portfolio Manager, Analyst

Investment team succession Trainee analyst Analyst § Multiple disciplines § Not sector specific §

Investment team succession Trainee analyst Analyst § Multiple disciplines § Not sector specific § No “house view” constraint § Two-year training contract § Manage a paper portfolio § Retain the best § Average turnover § Substantial differences between different managers’ portfolios § Relatively high turnover Portfolio manager § Must be money-maker § Remuneration geared to long-term performance with a substantial portion earned post departure § Very low turnover 15 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 16

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 16 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Allan Gray Unit Trust Performance to 31 March 2014 Equity Fund Benchmark 1 Out

Allan Gray Unit Trust Performance to 31 March 2014 Equity Fund Benchmark 1 Out / Under Performance Balanced Fund Benchmark 2 Out / Under Performance Stable Fund Benchmark 3 Out / Under Performance Money Market Fund Benchmark 4 Out / Under Performance Optimal Fund Benchmark 5 Out / Under Performance Bond Fund Benchmark 6 Out / Under Performance Inception Date 01/10/1998 Fund size (Rm) 38 869. 6 Year to date 12 months 6. 9 20. 9 3 years 17. 7 5 years 20. 0 Performance sinception Cumulative Annualised 3 923. 7 26. 9 01/10/1999 89 425. 5 4. 3 2. 6 3. 8 23. 6 -2. 7 18. 8 17. 6 0. 1 16. 6 22. 0 -2. 0 16. 1 1 376. 4 2 547. 2 1 246. 5 19. 0 8. 0 19. 6 01/07/2000 35 009. 9 2. 2 1. 5 2. 2 16. 7 2. 1 11. 0 14. 9 1. 7 11. 5 15. 7 0. 4 9. 7 591. 3 655. 2 466. 8 14. 3 5. 4 13. 5 03/07/2001 7 988. 5 1. 6 0. 6 1. 3 6. 2 4. 8 5. 3 6. 4 5. 0 5. 4 7. 1 2. 6 6. 2 245. 2 221. 6 175. 7 9. 4 4. 0 8. 3 01/10/2002 837. 8 1. 3 0. 0 1. 9 5. 3 0. 1 4. 8 5. 4 0. 0 4. 6 6. 1 0. 1 4. 6 174. 2 1. 5 138. 1 8. 2 0. 0 7. 8 01/10/2004 627. 1 1. 1 0. 8 1. 7 4. 2 0. 6 3. 0 4. 3 0. 3 9. 0 5. 0 -0. 3 9. 2 113. 3 24. 9 130. 8 6. 8 1. 0 9. 2 0. 9 0. 8 0. 6 2. 4 9. 2 -0. 2 9. 0 0. 2 124. 0 6. 7 8. 9 0. 3 NOTES: 1. All Share Index plus Dividends. 2. The average (market value-weighted) of the Domestic Prudential Unit Trust Sector excluding the Allan Gray Balanced Fund. 3. Firstrand Bank call deposit rate plus 2%. 4. Alexander Forbes Three Month Deposit Index from 3 July 2001 to 31 March 2003. As from 1 April 2003, the benchmark is the simple average of the Domestic Fixed Interest Money Market Unit Trust Sector excluding Allan Gray Money Market Fund. 5. Daily call rate as supplied by Firstrand Bank. 6. JSE/ All Bond Index Source: Allan Gray Research, data to 31. 03. 2014 (RN 100414 m) 17 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Unit Trust returns in Bull & Bear Markets July 2000 – April 2014 6.

Unit Trust returns in Bull & Bear Markets July 2000 – April 2014 6. 0 5. 0 Monthly Returns (%) 4. 0 3. 0 2. 0 4. 6 3. 9 2. 7 1. 8 1. 2 1. 0 0. 6 1. 5 1. 2 0. 7 1. 0 0. 6 0. 0 -0. 5 -1. 0 -1. 4 -2. 0 -1. 8 -3. 0 -4. 0 -3. 6 -5. 0 103 UP MONTHS 63 DOWN MONTHS Allan Gray Equity Fund ALSI Allan Gray Balanced Fund Average Balanced Fund Allan Gray Stable Fund Call deposit + 2% Source: Allan Gray Research, data to 30. 04. 2014 (RN 130514 m) 18 166 TOTAL MONTHS Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Allan Gray Balanced Fund Performance 31 March 2014 AGBF Benchmark % p. a. 25.

Allan Gray Balanced Fund Performance 31 March 2014 AGBF Benchmark % p. a. 25. 0 20. 0 19. 6 18. 8 16. 1 15. 0 15. 7 14. 3 16. 7 16. 6 14. 9 10. 0 5. 0 0. 0 Since Inception 5 Years Source: Allan Gray (SG 100414 m) 19 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. 3 Years 1 Year

Maximum Drawdown: South African – Multi Asset – High Equity Since funds’ inception –

Maximum Drawdown: South African – Multi Asset – High Equity Since funds’ inception – 30 April 2014 0 -5 -10 -15 Percentage -15. 38 -20 -21. 93 -25. 80 -28. 11 -30 -35 -40 -45 -44. 26 -50 Allan Gray Balanced Fund A Drawdown is calculated on daily fund prices and on the total return of the Fund (i. e. including income) 20 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Fund B Fund C Fund D

Allan Gray Stable Fund Performance 31 March 2014 AGSF Benchmark % p. a. 16.

Allan Gray Stable Fund Performance 31 March 2014 AGSF Benchmark % p. a. 16. 0 14. 0 13. 5 11. 5 12. 0 10. 0 9. 4 8. 0 11. 0 9. 7 7. 1 6. 4 6. 2 6. 0 4. 0 2. 0 0. 0 Since Inception 5 Years Source: Allan Gray (SG 100414 m) 21 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. 3 Years 1 Year

Maximum Drawdown: South African – Multi Asset – Low Equity Since funds’ inception –

Maximum Drawdown: South African – Multi Asset – Low Equity Since funds’ inception – 30 April 2014 0 -2 -4 -4. 12 Percentage -6 -5. 56 -7. 30 -8 -10 -12 -13. 10 -14 -13. 47 -16 Allan Gray Stable Fund A Drawdown is calculated on daily fund prices and on the total return of the Fund (i. e. including income) 22 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Fund B Fund C Fund D

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 23

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 23 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

ALSI in Real Terms 64000 6 years 32000 9 years 18 years 16000 8000

ALSI in Real Terms 64000 6 years 32000 9 years 18 years 16000 8000 4000 Source: I-Net and Allan Gray Research, data to 30. 04. 2014 (RN 020514 m) 24 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1000 1960 2000

ALSI Trendline PE vs. Subsequent Real Returns 50% Subsequent 4 -year real return 40%

ALSI Trendline PE vs. Subsequent Real Returns 50% Subsequent 4 -year real return 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 0 5 10 Source: I-Net and Allan Gray research, data to 31. 03. 2014 (RN 050314 m) 25 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Trendline PE 15 20 25

Indices Relative Performance 31/12/1997 ALSI Allan Gray 2. 00 Resources 23 Financials 28 Industrials

Indices Relative Performance 31/12/1997 ALSI Allan Gray 2. 00 Resources 23 Financials 28 Industrials 49 1. 00 31/03/14 ALSI Allan Gray Resources Financials Industrials 0. 50 0. 25 60 65 70 Industrials 75 80 Financials 85 90 Resources 95 00 05 Periods of Allan Gray underperformance as relative valuations moved to extremes Source: I-Net, data to 31. 03. 2014 (RN 030414 m) 26 32 0 68 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. 10 27 19 54 25 30 45

MSCI Emerging Markets vs MSCI World ? Source: I-Net, data to 30. 04. 14

MSCI Emerging Markets vs MSCI World ? Source: I-Net, data to 30. 04. 14 (SG 080514 m) 27 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Stock Market Returns (in Rands) 60% 54% 50% 40% 32% 30% 27% 23% 19%

Stock Market Returns (in Rands) 60% 54% 50% 40% 32% 30% 27% 23% 19% 20% 21% 14% 10% 6% 2% 3% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 -10% -20% -19% -23% JSE ALSI -30% Source: Allan Gray Research 28 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. FTSE WI 2012 2013

Flows into emerging markets versus developed markets Source: Morgan Stanley Research (SG 160514 w)

Flows into emerging markets versus developed markets Source: Morgan Stanley Research (SG 160514 w) 29 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

SA offers a tiny fraction of global investment opportunities R 91. 8 billion $62.

SA offers a tiny fraction of global investment opportunities R 91. 8 billion $62. 9 trillion 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total World Stock Market Capitalisation South Africa Source: Bloomberg, Allan Gray, data as at 30. 04. 2014 (Nvd. M 140414 ns) 30 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Balanced Fund Rest of the world

Benchmark Concentration Source: JSE, FTSE, S&P (FJ 09102013 ns) 31 Allan Gray Limited is

Benchmark Concentration Source: JSE, FTSE, S&P (FJ 09102013 ns) 31 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

ALSI PE – based on Recent and Trendline Earnings 30 25 20 15 10

ALSI PE – based on Recent and Trendline Earnings 30 25 20 15 10 ALSI PE on Trailing 12 Month Earnings Source: I-Net and Allan Gray Research, data to 31. 12. 2013 (RN 020114 m) 32 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. ALSI PE on Trendline Earnings 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 0 1960 5

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 33

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 33 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Asset Allocation as at 31 March 2014 Allan Gray Balanced Fund % of Portfolio

Asset Allocation as at 31 March 2014 Allan Gray Balanced Fund % of Portfolio Asset Class Total SA Foreign Net Equity 55. 5 43. 7 11. 8 Hedged Equity 12. 5 10. 0 Property 1. 6 1. 2 0. 4 Commodities 3. 6 - Bonds 9. 6 0. 3 Money Market and Bank Deposits 16. 9 13. 6 3. 3 Total 100. 0 74. 3 25. 7 Note: There may be slight discrepancies in the totals due to rounding. 34 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Top 10 Local Equity Holdings as at 31 March 2014 Allan Gray Balanced Fund

Top 10 Local Equity Holdings as at 31 March 2014 Allan Gray Balanced Fund % of Fund Sasol 14. 0 6. 6 British American Tobacco 12. 9 6. 1 SABMiller 8. 8 4. 2 Standard Bank 8. 2 3. 9 Anglo American* 4. 3 2. 0 Remgro 3. 8 1. 8 Reinet 3. 4 1. 6 Old Mutual 2. 7 1. 3 Investec Ltd 2. 7 1. 3 Sanlam 2. 2 1. 1 Total 63. 0 29. 9 * Including positions in Anglo American stub certificates 35 % of Shares Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 36

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 36 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Orbis Global Equity Fund 30 April 2014 – Size: US$14. 6 bn Since Inc.

Orbis Global Equity Fund 30 April 2014 – Size: US$14. 6 bn Since Inc. (1 Jan 1990) 20 Year 10 Year 5 Year 3 Year 1 Year Orbis Global Equity Fund 12. 7 12. 8 10. 1 16. 6 10. 8 22. 1 Average Global Equity Fund* 5. 4 5. 0 5. 1 11. 8 4. 5 13. 6 FTSE World Index 7. 0 7. 6 8. 0 16. 3 8. 6 15. 9 Annualised Returns (US$) Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Fund share prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. Returns may decrease or increase as a result of currency fluctuations. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital is at risk. Returns are calculated gross of all income and assume reinvestment of dividends. Gross returns are net of all expenses (i. e. before the deduction of all management and performance fees). Net returns are net of all fees and expenses. *The Morningstar data for 24 April 2014 has been extended to reflect the move in the FTSE World Index through 30 April 2014. Source: Orbis (AK 2 090514 m) 37 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Allan Gray Balanced Fund: Top 10 Shares Stocks Samsung Electronics 4. 3 Net. Ease

Allan Gray Balanced Fund: Top 10 Shares Stocks Samsung Electronics 4. 3 Net. Ease 3. 1 American Intl. Group 2. 3 INPEX 2. 2 Motorola Solutions 2. 1 Weatherford International 1. 9 NKSJ Holdings 1. 8 Sberbank of Russia 1. 8 Ericsson 1. 7 Korea Electric Power 1. 6 Total 22. 9 As at 30 April 2014 Source: Allan Gray (AK 2 120514 m) 38 % Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Why Allan Gray? Intensely Focused 39 • Private and independent, alignment of client/shareholder interests

Why Allan Gray? Intensely Focused 39 • Private and independent, alignment of client/shareholder interests • Strong, internally developed investment team • Consistently applied rational Investment Philosophy, implemented via a disciplined process • Focused on absolute returns (risk of capital loss) • Invest with conviction (won’t own a share if expensive, despite its benchmark weight) • Proven track record of achieving long-term out-performance Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Summary of views 40 • Risk we worry most about. . is the risk

Summary of views 40 • Risk we worry most about. . is the risk of permanent capital loss. • We see local headwinds on the horizon. • South African equities are expensive relative to their history and are pricing in very high expectations of earnings growth. The risk is to the downside. • Real returns from equities from the current (high) level of the stock market are likely to be muted. • Locally, we prefer geographically diversified, defensive businesses. • Global equities, especially developed country stock markets, have significantly lagged emerging market equities and are looking relatively more attractive. • “Avoid the losers, the winners will take care of themselves” ~ Howard Marks Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 41

Agenda Our business Performance Market Overview Fund Positioning Foreign The value of advice 41 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Service culture “ A track record without investors is meaningless, and clients who disinvest

Service culture “ A track record without investors is meaningless, and clients who disinvest at the wrong time because of a loss of confidence are poorly served even if our track record looks good. ” Rob Dower 42 Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

What drives switching? “The key to investing success is being greedy when others are

What drives switching? “The key to investing success is being greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. ” Warren Buffet. 43 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

The behaviour gap “Investment results are more dependent on investor behaviour than on fund

The behaviour gap “Investment results are more dependent on investor behaviour than on fund performance. ” Dalbar research 2011 44 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Sounds familiar. . been a victim 45 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial

Sounds familiar. . been a victim 45 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Performance does not come in a straight line Allan Gray Share Returns vs All

Performance does not come in a straight line Allan Gray Share Returns vs All Share Index 80. 0 Out/Under performance % 60. 0 Average Outperformance: 9. 5% 40. 0 20. 0 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 -20. 0 Source: Allan Gray Research, data to 31. 12. 13 (SG 140114 m) 46 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Our world is becoming a crowded place, but many have been lost along the

Our world is becoming a crowded place, but many have been lost along the way Fund universe 10 9 9 7 800 6 5 600 1021 4 400 3 2 475 Nr of funds in SA 1000 8 Allan Gray funds 1200 1 0 0 2003 2013 Allan Gray funds All funds 460 Nr of shares Nr of funds 1021 Source: Alexander Forbes, Business Day 1993 47 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

The value of advice 1. Switching 2. Following the herd 3. Not saving enough

The value of advice 1. Switching 2. Following the herd 3. Not saving enough 4. Starting too late 5. Investing too conservatively 6. Not preserving your savings Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

The value of independent advice “We believe that the best form of advice is

The value of independent advice “We believe that the best form of advice is good independent advice” Jeanette Marais § Advised clients make better investment decisions, switch less and create more value when they do switch between funds § You and I are emotional about our money – but our adviser is RATIONAL § Your financial adviser plays an important role to help you remain disciplined and not let your emotions get in the way of making smart financial decisions 49 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Legal notes • Copyright • The content and information provided are owned by Allan

Legal notes • Copyright • The content and information provided are owned by Allan Gray Proprietary Limited ("Allan Gray") and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. All rights not expressly granted are reserved. The content and information may not be reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Allan Gray. • Information and content • The content of this presentation is provided by Allan Gray as general information about the company and its products and services. Allan Gray does not guarantee the suitability or potential value of any information or particular investment source. The information provided is not intended nor does it constitute financial, tax, legal, investment, or other advice. Before making any decision or taking any action regarding your finances, you should consult a licensed financial adviser. Nothing contained in the presentation constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or offer by Allan Gray, but shall merely be deemed to be an invitation to do business. • • 50 • Disclaimer • Allan Gray has taken and will continue to take care that all information provided, in so far as this is under its control, is true and correct. However, Allan Gray shall not be responsible for and therefore disclaims any liability for any loss, liability, damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance upon any information provided. Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Orbis Global: Rolling 5 -year Returns Annualised Returns Sinception Rolling 5 -year periods How

Orbis Global: Rolling 5 -year Returns Annualised Returns Sinception Rolling 5 -year periods How we prefer to look at returns. This chart breaks up the Fund’s return into 5 -year rolling periods sinception measured against the FTSE World Index. We have chosen 5 years because this is consistent with our investment time horizon and therefore the minimum investment period we recommend to prospective clients. Note the underperformance in 92 -97 and 93 -98. This was partly due to 1997 when Global underperformed by about 10%. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Fund share prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. Returns may decrease or increase as a result of currency fluctuations. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital is at risk. Returns are net of all fees and charges, and assume dividends are reinvested. Source: Orbis (AK 2 311213 y) 51 Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.

Orbis Global: Bottom-Up, Concentrated Contrarian Portfolio % exposure of Orbis Global (excludes net current

Orbis Global: Bottom-Up, Concentrated Contrarian Portfolio % exposure of Orbis Global (excludes net current assets; benchmark exposure in brackets) Financials 19 (22) North America *AIG 3. 1 46 (54) Cons. Services 16 (11) Europe 20 (26) Cons. Goods 10 (13) Oil & Gas 9 (9) Basic Materials 7 (6) *Weatherford Intl. 2. 9 5. 5 *Alcoa 2. 1 Rockwood Hldgs 1. 3 Barrick Gold 1. 1 Newmont Mining 1. 0 Industrials 6 (13) Telecoms 4 (3) KB Financial Group 1. 4 Positions <1% 2. 0 Positions <1% 0. 7 *Samsung Elec. 3. 9 SK Telecom 1. 0 KEPCO 1. 3 6. 1 *Sberbank of Russia 2. 2 Barclays 1. 2 Erste Group Bank 1. 1 Positions <1% 1. 6 Japan 9 (8) *INPEX 2. 1 Other 4 (6) 45% of Orbis Global is invested in the six overweight areas highlighted above, including 19 significant (>1%) positions. These areas make up 23% of the benchmark (FTSE World Index). Orbis Global has an aggregate exposure of 22% to the Consumer Goods, Industrials and North America Financials sectors, which make up 36% of the benchmark. *Top-10 stocks. Source: Orbis 310314 (AK 2 190514 q) 52 Utilities 2 (3) 4. 9 *Net. Ease 3. 8 Sohu. com 1. 1 20 (6) 10. 4 Health Care 11 (10) 9. 1 *Valeant Pharma. Intl. 1. 8 9. 3 *Liberty Global 2. 2 Humana 1. 7 *Motorola Sol. 3. 0 Well. Point 1. 6 Charter Comms. 1. 8 Positions <1% 5. 3 HCA Holdings 1. 0 Positions <1% 3. 0 Asia ex. Japan of which Korea Technology 15 (10) Allan Gray Limited is an authorised financial services provider. Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider.