All about models Population The DTM Demographic Transition

All about models

Population • The DTM • Demographic Transition Model • Shows relationship between CBR, CDR, NI and the rate of population growth over time. • X axis = time • Y axis = birth and death rates • Based on the population experiences of Europe and countries which experienced the Industrial Revolution • Still has applicability to others

The Demographic Transition Model Population Boom

The Stages • Stage 1: High birth and death rates (“high stationary” ) • True of all human populations until late 18 th century • Stage 2: falling death rates make a rise in population • Improvements in food supply and public health » Falling IMR • Deals with a “population explosion” • Stage 3: birth rates begin to fall • Increasing urbanization; increasing female literacy & employment (Female education = #1 factor in lowering BR) • Better medical care/ sanitation (water): Lower IMR » lower CBR; improvements in contraceptive technology • Stage 4: low birth and death rates (“low stationary”) • Birth rates have fallen to replacement levels (2 children/ couple), and population has restabilized. • Stage 5: ZPG or negative growth • Birth rates have fallen below replacement level

Students should be able to… • Identify the stage a particular country is likely in • Know which region of the world a country is in, and be able to categorize that. (Know the exceptions within those regions. ) • Identify the issues that a particular country may face due to its stage in the DTM (Japan vs. China) • Critique the model • only effectively describes certain countries • Not all countries go through the stages the same way • Many countries are ‘skipping’ traditional industrialism- does it still apply to them? • Differences with LDC’s • • later transition (20 th cent. ) for LDC’s Faster decline in death rates (50 yrs. vs. 150 yrs) Relatively longer lag between drop in CDR and drop in CBR. Higher maximum rates of growth in stage 2, age structures in LDC’s far younger.

Population Pyramids/ Structures

Population Structures • Rapid Growth: • Most of developing world. • Populations increase so fast that doubling time can = 25 years. • High percent of population is under 19 (60%). • Resource usage is high, but a low standard of living exists. Any increase on S. O. L is absorbed by population growth. • Slow Growth: • Developed countries (U. S, Canada, some W. Europe) • Long doubling time, • Resources are used to maintain infrastructure. • Under 19= 25=30% Some have no growth and stable populations. • Negative Growth: • Very few countries: Japan, Italy, Austria. • Under 19= less than 25% • averaging less than 2 children per family. • Resources- to increase standard of living.

Pyramid Shape- related to DTM

Pyramid Examples Cohort Also called: Age-sex pyramids or Age-structure diagrams

Pyramid Examples

• Create your own pyramid • http: //www. statisticum. org/input/graphics/create_p opulation_pyramid_i. php? language=ENGLISH

Students should be able to • • Interpret pyramids based on basic shape styles and determine whether a particular area is undergoing rapid, slow, stable or negative growth. Explain how population momentum will affect that area, even when CBR drops. Identify the issues that face each type of growth- including dependency ratios. Provide reasonable explanations for phenomena seen in each pyramid • Gender differences, baby booms, wars, colleges, etc.

Diffusion models • Contagious Diffusion Hierarchical Diffusion Relocation Diffusion • Barriers • • • Impermeable vs. Permeable • Political, Cultural, Physical, etc.

Contagious Diffusion

Hierarchical Diffusion

Relocation diffusion

Spatial Diffusion of Rap Music

Ratzel’s Organic State Model • • Geopolitics 7 laws (State as biological organism) • • State’s space grows with population growth. Territorial growth follows other development. State grows by absorbing smaller units. Frontier is peripheral organ, reflecting strength/growth, not permanent • When growing, states seek politically valuable territory. • Impetus for growth goes from highly developed to lesser developed states. • Trend toward growth is contagious, increasing in process of transmission. • Students should know and understand basics of model and recognize it’s use in imperialism and colonialism throughout history.

Von Thünen • • Essay topic 2 years in a row, also referenced in the ‘infamous’ chicken question. Based on: • Isotropic plain. (All conditions constant everywhere. ) • People act to maximize profit. (All agriculture in the model is assumed to be commercial) • An isolated state (no competition. ) • Land is more valuable closer to the market (bid-rent) so crops grown there must take that into account. • Certain crops cost more to transport or store than others, due to weight or perishability (frequency of transport): those will be located close to minimize cost of transport. • Transportation costs increase with distance, so crops grown farther away must be raised in bulk or have low frequency of transport.

The Model

With Modification

Gravity Model • Predicts the likelihood of interaction between places based on size and distance. Population 1 x Population 2 Distance 2 Students should be able to make a general prediction as to the likely interaction.

Industrial Location Theory • • • Hotelling’s Ice Cream Vendors Weber’s Model of Industrial Location Christaller’s Central Place Theory

BEACH

1 Vendor? BEACH

2 Vendors? BEACH

3 Vendors? BEACH

Weber’s Model of Industrial location • • Assumption is still that individuals act to maximize profit and minimize cost Accounts for several different aspects of the change of raw material during the manufacturing process. • If weight loss occurred, best place for the factory would be the site of raw materials. • Processes that increase the bulk of the product, or make it either more perishable or fragile would be better sited close to the market. • Assumption of 2 necessary raw materials and a single market for the finished product • First determined on a triangular board- three strings knotted together, with weights tied to their other ends. • Where the knot was pulled to indicated where the factory should be located. • Critique: • Obviously doesn’t account for differences in wages, taxation or incentives, etc.

Furniture? 42 The Resource Paper? Pianos? Firewood? 1 3 The Market

Christaller’s Central Place Theory • Isotropic Plain!!! • Even distribution of population with identical preferences • Size and distribution of markets and service centers varies according to relative size (or population). • A product’s range (or maximum travel distance of a consumer) is limited • The minimum required market (or threshold) varies by product • the range of higher order goods is greater than lower order goods • the threshold for higher order goods is greater • Range must surpass threshold for profitability

A conurbation is an urban area or agglomeration comprising a number of cities, large towns and larger urban areas that, through population growth and physical expansion, have merged to form one continuous urban and industrially developed area. In most cases, a conurbation is a polycentric agglomeration, in which transportation has developed to link areas to create a single urban labour market or travel to work area

Bid-Rent Theory

Burgess: the Concentric Zone Model

Hoyt’s Sector model

Harris and Ullman: Multiple Nuclei Model

Vance’s Urban Realms

Latin American City Model