Alaskas Changing Demographics Economic Implications Anchorage Rotary Club

Alaska’s Changing Demographics: Economic Implications Anchorage Rotary Club October 29, 2019 Ralph Townsend Director Institute of Social and Economic Research 1

ISER’s Center for Alaska Education Policy Research 2

Alaska Health-Care Spending

Demographics matter! Year 1900 1950 1970 2016 Alaska ratio male to female 2. 58 1. 61 1. 18 1. 06 Source: US Census

The big change: We’re getting older, and quickly. % of population over 65 Year 1980 1990 2000 2017 2030 US 11 % 13 % 12 % 13 % 16 % 20 % Alaska 3% 4% 5% 7% 11 % 17 % Source: AK Dept. of Labor and Workforce Development

Health care spending per capita US Alaska 1991 $ 2672 $ 2558 2014 $ 8045 $11, 064 (Highest)

Under-18 Population, Alaska AI/AN Asian Black Hispanic Pacific Is. White 2 or more Source: US Census

Under-18 Population, US US AI/AN Asian Black Hispanic Pacific Is. White 2 or more Source: US Census

Lower educational attainment for minorities 2015 -16 High School Graduation Rates Alaska US All White Black Hispanic AI/AN 76% 81% 74% 76% 64% Source: NCES 84% 88% 76% 79% 72%

Lower post-secondary attainment in Alaska College Attendance by HS Grads (2014) Post-Secondary Degree 25 -34 year-olds (2015) Alaska 44% (49 th) 37% (38 th) US 63% 43% Source: NCES, NCHEMS

Source: Alaska Population Projections 2017 -45 11

46 19 48 19 50 19 52 19 54 19 56 19 58 19 60 19 62 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 19 Alaska Population 800, 000 700, 000 600, 000 500, 000 400, 000 300, 000 200, 000 100, 000 0 Source: AK Dept. of Labor and Workforce Dev.

Net Migration for Alaska 13

The economic implications of Alaska’s demographic changes • Population growth insufficient to fill spaces left by retirees. • Minorities, with historically lower educational attainment, increasing share of workforce. • Historic reliance on in-migration, esp. for post-secondary skills, will be undermined by national shortages. 14

Alaska’s Changing Demographics: Economic Implications Anchorage Rotary Club 15