ALARO in Romania Doina Banciu Otilia Diaconu Romanian

ALARO in Romania Doina Banciu, Otilia Diaconu Romanian Meteorological Administration

ALARO ROMANIA CY 35 T 1 § operational since 10 February 2010 ü Hydrostatic mode ü No data asimilation ü No SURFEX ü 1. 09. 2011: bugfix of February 2011 - SLHD not touched Not specific tuning for cloudiness and convection CY 36 T 1 ∆x=6. 5 km 240 x 240 points 49 vertical levels Linear grid Lambert projection 2 TL-SL ∆t=240 s § implemented (including bugfix of February 2011; in test CY 37 T 1 § under implementation

ALARO VERIFICATION § Statistical scores: T 2 m, V 10 m, MSLP - annual average for 2011 - average for 5 months 2012 - comparison with ALADIN, the back up solution - bias maps § Precipitation: subjective evaluation § Observations 160 surface synop stations 1000 precipitation measuremnt stations

2 m Temperature 2011 2012 + 24 + 36 + 48 Bias • cold seazon : negative, espeacilly during night (+ 24, +48 h) ALARO is better than ALADIN ; exception February 2012 • warm seazon: positive ALARO is better than ALADIN during day (+36); ALADIN is better during night RMSE: • a bit smaller values during the warm season almost anytime ALARO is better than ALADIN but very small diferences

23 May 2012 2 Tm bias 00+24 00+36 6 h precipitation 18→ 24 h 30→ 36 h

10 m Wind speed 2011 2012 +24 +36 +48 • Bias: generaly negative during night and cold season • Small differences between ALARO and ALDIN

23 May 2012 10 m wind speed bias 00+24 00+36

MSLP 2011 2012 +24 +36 +48 • Generally negative bias • ALARO has better bias and rmse then ALADIN • Singular behaviour : April !!!

Mean sea level pressure bias 24 May 2012 00+24 25 May 2012

Precipitation Forecasters feedback: good ALARO behaviour, better than ALADIN ALARO is very good warning situation, being considered the most reliable However there are still problems: - the diurnal cycle - the displacement speed of the mezoscale convective systems - maximum value of the heavy precipitation - the are of light preciptitation too spead

2012 May 11 May 12 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations May 13

2012 May 14 May 15 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations May 16

2012 May 17 ! May 18 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations May 19

2012 May 21 May 22 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations May 23

2012 May 24 ! May 25 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations May 26

2012 May 27 ! !! May 28 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations May 29

2012 May 30 May 31 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations June 1

2012 June 2 ! June 3 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations June 4

2012 June 5 ! June 6 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations June 7

2012 June 8 June 9 ! ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations June 10 !!