Air pollution and globalisation ystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological

Air pollution and globalisation Øystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute Environmental Prediction into the Next Decade Technical WMO conference Incheon, Republic of Korea 17 November 2009

Megacity, Air quality and Climate: Observations and multi-scale Modelling Environmental impact incl health Regional and urban Air pollution analysis And prediction Atmospheric composition analysis and forecasting Global modelling And data assimilation Satellite and In-situ observations Scale bridging

Air quality issues – Air quality and health, – acidification, – eutrophication, – UV - enhancement, – surface ozone, – visibility impairment, – ecosystems exposed to toxic substances, – climate change - greenhouse gases and PM/CDNC – climate services – downscaling to high resolution – Emissions - estimation, validation, compliance

Per-capita NOx emissions 1940 -2030 The US and Europe is ”greying”

Biogeochemical cycles S N CO 2, VOC, CO, CH 4 PM Globalisation: BC Local, regional, global cycles; S, N, VOC, PM are cycled locally/regionally but with global implications for atmospheric composition and climate IPCC AR 4 WG 1 ch 7 p 535

Globalisation of economies and emissions Claire Granier, CNRS

IPCC AR 4 WG 1 ch 7

Lelieveld et al. , 2004

Emissions and removal over Europe 2000 S and N SO 2 emissions 10, 00 Mt. S NOx emissions 5, 92 Mt. N NH 3 emissions 5, 08 Mt. N S dep 8, 88 Mt. S 89% Oxidised N Reduced N deposition 5, 10 Mt. N 4, 99 Mt. N 86% 98% S and N emissions in Europe are deposited inside Europe EMEP Report 1/2003

Long range transport of air pollution – very long range transport Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM 2. 5 [months] (IIASA) 2000 2010 Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM 2. 5, average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies 2020

Anthropogenic sulfur emissions in Europe – from “black” to “grey”

Has this reduction affected temperatures over Scandinavia? If so, to what extent? Is this a coincidence, or actual relationship? ? ? From HC Hansson, ITM, SU

N = food; energy = N 90 World population milions Agricul. surface milions ha Fertilizer Tgr NOx emissions 6000 5000 80 70 60 4000 50 3000 40 30 2000 Fertilizers and NOx World population and Agricultural surface 7000 20 1000 10 0 1850 0 1900 1950 2000 Year [Title] Haber [Date] Carl Bosch Fritz [Lecturer],

Changes in NO 2 (from “grey” to “black”) • Excellent agreement between SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 measurements • Good agreement also with OMI in spite of time difference of measurements => if the same retrieval is used, satellites provide a very consistent picture A. Richter, A. Hilboll, M. Vrekoussis, F. Wittrock, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, J. Yoon, O. Schneising, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, J. Heymann Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen FB 1, Germany

Changes in SO 2 Nov. 08 volcanic • SO 2 columns show upward trend since 1996 • Accelerating increase from 2001 • Sharp decrease in 2008 / 2009 A. Richter, A. Hilboll, M. Vrekoussis, F. Wittrock, W. von Hoyningen-Huene, J. Yoon, O. Schneising, M. Buchwitz, M. Reuter, J. Heymann Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen FB 1, Germany

Global anthropogenic NOx emission scenarios 2000 -2100 Original SRES B 2 SRES A 2 IIASA CLE IIASA MFR ACCENT Photocomp runs Royal Society runs IIASA CLE 2050 (+Climate Change) IIASA ‘current legislation’ (based on B 2 socioeconomics) Courtesy Markus Amann, IIASA (+Climate Change: T- and PAR-change influence on isoprene and lightning NOx emissions)

NOx in RCP 8. 5

• Air pollution abatement strategies turn cities and regions from ”black” to ”grey” globally in particular outside of the tropics • Even though fossil fuel consumption in cities, regions and globally increase as do the CO 2 emissions, the air pollution precursor emissions decline (SO 2, NOx, VOC, PPM) • A global change from ”black” and ”white” to ”grey” everywhere in terms of air pollution. • Climate change unabated

Thank you for the attention

The greying of Europe Environmental impacts of air pollution GAINS estimates for 2000 PM Acid, forests Eutrophication Ozone Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat. ecos.

CO 2 emissions Gt. C/a

IPCC AR 4 Summary for policymakers Climate change feedback on air pollution in the future

Model result: In Northern mid-latitudes, 35 -65% of present-day surface O 3 originates from anthropogenic NOx, CH 4, CO and NMVOCs Assumes no change in biomass burning or soil NOx between 1750 and present Average of 5 model calculations STOCHEM-Had. AM 3 (Edinburgh), STOCHEM-Had. GEM (UKMO), UMCAM (Cambridge), TM 4 (KNMI), FR 56 C (O Wild)

The Greying of Europe. Tropospheric Trace Gases Observable by Satellite Nitrogen Dioxide: (requires separation from stratosphere) Formaldehyde Carbon Monoxide Jack Fishman, NASA, ESA-ESTEC presentation from www

Projected changes in JJA surface O 3 for three 2030 scenarios IIASA CLE Mean of 20 models IIASA MFR 25 ACCENT models ensemble mean JJA surface O 3 changes 2000 -2030 under three scenarios: IIASA CLE IIASA MFR SRES A 2 Dentener et al. , 2006 SRES A 2

SO 2 emissions Claire Granier, CNRS

EMEP MSCW 2009

Remaining problem areas in 2020 Light blue = no risk Health - PM Health+vegetation - ozone Vegetation – N dep. [Title] Forests – acid dep. [Lecturer], [Date] Semi-natural – acid dep. IIASA, Amann Freshwater – acid dep.

Environmental problem NOx control VOC control CH 4 control Combined control NO 2 urban Large Negligible Large O 3 urban Medium Small Medium O 3 rural Medium Large PM Medium Small Negligible Medium N deposition Medium Negligible Medium O 3 Small N deposition Medium Negligible Medium O 3 Negligible PM Medium Small Negligible Medium O 3 Small O 3 Medium Negligible Medium PM direct Small Negligible Small PM indirect (cloud) Small Negligible Small N deposition Medium Negligible Medium O 3 Medium Human health Co-bene -fits of cont-rol of ozone precursor emissions Biodiversity Acidification and Eutrophication Visibility Climate change Carbon sequestration