Air Force Research Laboratory Space Weather SWx at

Air Force Research Laboratory Space Weather (SWx) at AFRL Dr. Joel B. Mozer, Chief Space Weather Center of Excellence Hanscom AFB, MA UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather Overview • Introduction • Space Weather Center of Excellence (Co. E) Organization • SWx Research & Development • Selected Co. E Programs/Products UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather Introduction Mission To develop and transition affordable technologies for specifying, forecasting, mitigating, and exploiting the effects of the space environment on Do. D systems and operations UNCLASSIFIED

Counterspace Mission Objective: Maintain the mission capabilities of friendly space forces and deny the adversary use of space Situational Awareness • Characterize, assess the impact of, and predict natural space environments • Maintain Space Order of Battle • Detect space objects • Track and monitor • Characterize and classify Defensive Counterspace Offensive Counterspace • Protect space capabilities • Prevent adversaries from natural and use of space manmade threats capabilities • Detect and evaluate potential threats • Active and Passive Defensive measures • Detect, characterize, assess and report attacks Understand our theater … Protect our systems … Provide graduated response… UNCLASSIFIED

Space Environment Space Control Perspective DCS Survive & endure Avoid Restore & Reconstitute Reconfigure OCS Suppress threat Suppress attacker (preempt) SSA Detect, track, characterize, & warn of threat Anomaly determination Monitor & predict space environment Detect, track, Characterize, Catalog: All earth orbiting objects UNCLASSIFIED Negate Adversary Capabilities Deny Disrupt Degrade Destroy IBP - Determine missions and vulnerabilities SA – Target ID, location, status and strike assessment

VSBX Integrated Approach Solar Physics Interplanetary Space Ionosphere Magnetosphere Radiation Belts UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather Introduction Organization AFRL/VSBX Space Weather Center of Excellence AFOSR/NM Mathematics & Space Sciences Directorate Dr. J. Mozer, Chief Maj(sel) K. Labowski, Deputy Dr. D. Cooke, Tech Advisor VSBX SECTIONS VSBX PROGRAMS UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather Introduction Organization AFRL/VSBX Space Weather Center of Excellence AFOSR/NM Mathematics & Space Sciences Directorate Dr. J. Mozer, Chief Maj(sel) K. Labowski, Deputy Dr. D. Cooke, Tech Advisor VSBXI Ionospheric Hazards Specification & Forecast VSBX SECTIONS VSBX PROGRAMS VSBXS Solar and Solar Wind Disturbance Prediction Dr. Chin Lin, Chief Dr. R. Radick, Chief VSBXP Space Plasma Disturbance Specification & Forecast VSBXR Space Particle Hazards Specification & Forecast Dr. O. de La Beaujardiere, Chief Dr. K. Kadinsky-Cade, Chief VSBXT Space Weather Effects Dr. D. Hunton, Chief UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather Introduction Organization AFRL/VSBX Space Weather Center of Excellence AFOSR/NM Mathematics & Space Sciences Directorate Dr. J. Mozer, Chief Maj(sel) K. Labowski, Deputy Dr. D. Cooke, Tech Advisor Solar Disturbance Prediction Dr. Nathan Dalrymple, PM VSBX SECTIONS Dr. L. Jeong, PM Space Particle Hazards Dr. Kevin Ray, PM Ionospheric Impacts Dr. Keith Groves, PM VSBX PROGRAMS C/NOFS HAARP Dr. P. Kossey, PM UNCLASSIFIED RBR Lt. Col. Jon Shoenberg, PM BMT Capt J. Sillence, PM (Hanscom)

Space Weather Introduction Organization AFRL/VSBX Space Weather Center of Excellence Dr. J. Mozer, Chief Maj(sel) K. Labowski, Deputy Dr. D. Cooke, Tech Advisor AFOSR/NM Mathematics & Space Sciences Mathematics & Space Directorate Upper Atmosphere & Space Sciences Program AFRL Laboratory Tasks VSBX SECTIONS Sciences University, industry, & FFRDC grants Solar Environmental Disturbances Solar Terrestrial Interactions Radiation Belt Dynamics Wave-particle Interactions Magnetospheric Plasma & Fields VSBX PROGRAMS Global Ionospheric Processes Local Ionospheric Processes Space Chemistry (AFOSR/NL) UNCLASSIFIED AFOSR Star Team

Space Weather Introduction So What? Who Cares? Direct Request From CENTCOM for AFRL Space Weather Support PRIORITY ROUTINE P R 291449 Z AUG 00 FM USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL//CCJ 6 -C// TO HQ USSPACECOM PETERSON AFB CO//J 6/J 33/J 6 S/J 5 R// UNCLAS SUBJ/SCINTILLATION FORECASTING SYSTEMS// RMKS/1. RECENTLY, REPRESENTATIVES FROM AFSPACECOM AND AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY (AFRL) BRIEFED THE PROPOSED COMMUNICATIONS NAVIGATION OUTAGE FORECASTING SYSTEM (C/NOFS) ADVANCED CONCEPT TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATION (ACTD)… WE BELIEVE THE ABILITY OF A SYSTEM TO PROVIDE REAL TIME FORECAST WILL GREATLY IMPROVE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AS WELL AS INCREASED FORCECAST ACCURACY, ALLOWING OUR WARFIGHTERS TO ADJUST AND ADAPT TO OPERATIONS AS NEEDED… SATCOM Outage for CENTCOM AOR 2. IN ADDITION, A SCINTILLATION NETWORK DECISION AID (SCINDA) TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATION WAS RECENTLY FIELDED IN OUR AOR WITH VERY PROMISING RESULTS… 3. USCENTCOM FULLY SUPPORTS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE C/NOFS ACTD IN THE CENTCOM AOR AND REQUEST CLOSE COORDINATION WITH CCJ 6 -C FOR THE POTENTIAL DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCINDA SYSTEMS AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF C/NOFS IN THE CENTCOM AOR. // MAJCOMs Care About Space Weather UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather Impacts Impact on Ops Space particles cause radiation degradation and surface/internal charging/discharging leading to outages and anomalies Sun can directly cause RF, X-ray, and optical interference, in addition to releasing massive quantities of energetic particles Upper atmospheric density causes satellite drag, degrading LEO operations Scintillation Ionospheric scintillation degrades GPS-aided system capability and UHF SATCOM Ionospheric phenomena cause comm/nav link degradation and outages and surveillance clutter UNCLASSIFIED Adversaries can induce high-energy particle and RF wave-based hazards

Space Weather R&D Do. D Needs Space Weather Requirements Supported Mission Areas Scintillation Comm, PNT, ISR, BMD Radio Frequency Interference Comm, ISR, BMD Radiation and Charging Spacecraft, High Altitude Aircraft Electron Density Comm, PNT, ISR, BMD Neutral Particle Density Spacecraft, ISR, BMD Ground Induced Currents Electric Power Aurora Clutter ISR, BMD Key BMD Ballistic Missile Defense ISR Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance Communications PNT Positioning, Navigation, Timing Blue = commercial need as well UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather R&D Current SWx Support System SPACE SYSTEMS Classified Do. D GEO 55 th SWx Squadron (AFWA) Space Environment Center (NOAA) GPS/NDS DMSP Do. D Users Commercial Users * AFRL Supported Systems ACE SOHO Do. D Int’l GOES POES KEY Civil IMAGE GROUND SYSTEMS Solar Observing Optical Net (4) Radio Solar Telescope Net (4) Digital Ionospheric Sounding Sys (16) Ionospheric Measuring Sys (5) Neutron Monitor (1) Riometer (1) National Solar Observatories (2) JPL TEC Monitors (25) Archival Center USGS Magnetometer Net (13) Canadian Radio Observatory Australian Ionospheric Net (5) UNCLASSIFIED Yohkoh

Space Weather R&D NSSA Architecture (1999) 1 Sun-Earth-Line Interplanetary satellite Telescope package hosted on HEO satellite Sensor suite hosted on 3 NPOESS (DMSP-type) 1 STEREO satellite 10 Sensors (Polar) SCINTILLATION (SCINDA-type) All-Sky Cameras (10) Riometer 18 SBIRS - LO Satellite Drag from Tracking Network 2 GEO satellites Solar & Earth Observations (SMEI-type on GOES-type) 4 SEON (ISOON-type) 20 Sensors (Geomagnetic Equator) SCINTILLATION (SCINDA-type) KEY GROUND-BASED SPACE-BASED SENSOR-TYPE Piggy-back packages of particle detectors hosted on many satellites (CEASE-type) UNCLASSIFIED 1 LEO equatorial satellite (C/NOFS-type) 50 Sensor Packages (Worldwide) GPS/VHF, Ionosonde, Magnetometer, etc

Space Weather R&D Key Research Areas RESEARCH AREAS GOALS 1. Ground-Based & Space-Based Sensors • Accurate, timely, and global specification and forecast of SWx 2. Specification & Climatological Models 3. Forecast Models 4. Effects Mitigation & Exploitation UNCLASSIFIED • Survivable space systems

Space Weather R&D 1. Ground-Based & Space-Based Sensors CHALLENGE Recent Examples Space weather specification capabilities are data starved • Need coverage on global spatial scales and time scales of seconds to years • Spaced-based sensors are expensive • Ground-based sensors are often inconvenient CEASE Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor Experiment SOLUTION Develop sensors that are more ‘deployable’ • Low cost, miniaturized, high-resolution, and high-dynamic range sensors • Maximize autonomous operations capabilities SMEI Solar Mass Ejection Imager UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather R&D 2. Specification & Climatological Models Recent Examples CHALLENGE Gaps in data result from incomplete coverage of sensors • Need global continuous coverage for real-time situational awareness • Need initial conditions forecast models • Need long-term dynamic climatogolies for systems acquisition AF-GEOSPACE Space Environment Models (Version 2. 0) SOLUTION Develop empirical, assimilative, and/or physics-based models • In general, the more data the better • Error bars are essential for users (i. e. extensive validation) PRISM Parameterized Real-time Ionospheric Specification Model UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather R&D 3. Forecast Models Recent Examples CHALLENGE Priority Forecast Requirements 0 -24 hours (USAF) Geomagnetic Storm Forecast: 0 -1 hour (power grids) Ionosphere Forecast: • Requires thorough understanding of basic processes in the space environment • Models & observations must be coupled across different domains DILBERT Diffusion in (I, L, B) Energetic Radiation Transport Code SOLUTION Physics-based & quasi-empirical models • Focus on forecasting information the user needs • Must achieve low false alarm rates DMSP Scintillation Forecast Algorithm UNCLASSIFIED

Space Weather R&D 4. Effects Mitigation & Exploitation Recent Examples CHALLENGE Ultimate Goal: ‘All-weather’ capability • Passive Approach: Alter design, materials, & concept of operations (CONOPS) • Active Approach: Modify the system and/or environment in near real-time NASCAP-2 K NASA-Air Force Spacecraft Charging Analysis Program (2000 Release) SOLUTION Improve design tools and explore active techniques • Must understand space weather effects on rapidly changing technologies • Global modification techniques also have space force applications UNCLASSIFIED Active Wave Experiment Concept Design Study

AFRL Programs in SWx Selected AFRL Programs 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Op. SEND – Operational Space Environment Network Display ISOON – Improved Solar Observing Optical Network SCINDA – Scintillation Network Decision Aid SMEI – Solar Mass Ejection Imager C/NOFS – Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System HAARP – High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program RBR – Radiation Belt Remediation 72 -hour Space Weather Forecasting for Do. D Ops UNCLASSIFIED

AFRL Programs in SWx 1. Op. SEND Operational Space Environment Network Display • Who: Used by operators of space-based comm, nav, and ISR systems • What: First operational space weather impact map product • When: Developed mid-1990 s • Details: • Provides nowcast & 1 -hr forecast of degradation in HF system performance • Produced in real-time • Output is network distributed • Updated every half hour HF Illumination Map (Nowcast) UHF Scintillation Map (Forecast) UNCLASSIFIED

AFRL Programs in SWx 2. ISOON Improved Solar Observing Optical Network • Who: Operated by AFRL for research & limited support to SWx operations • What: Semi-autonomous telescope that studies solar activity (currently 1 site) • Where: Sacramento Peak, NM (National Solar Observatory) • When: Demonstrated 2002 Solar Image in H-Alpha • Details: • Acquires solar images in H-alpha line (every min), in continuum (every 10 min) • Replacing SOON (4 sites worldwide); lower O&M costs Sunspot Image in Continuum UNCLASSIFIED

AFRL Programs in SWx 3. SCINDA Scintillation Network Decision Aid • Who: Used by AFRL for research & by AFWA for operational support • What: Ground-based sensor & comp. model system that specifies/forecasts SATCOM outages due to ionospheric scintillation • Where: 11 sites worldwide along equator • When: Developed late-1990 s to present • Details: • Real-time, data-driven, updated every 15 min • Will combine with C/NOFS observations for improved scintillation nowcasts/forecasts UNCLASSIFIED SCINDA Tri-Color Disturbance Map

AFRL Programs in SWx 4. SMEI Solar Mass Ejection Imager • Who: Operated by AFRL and two universities • What: All-sky camera experiment aboard the Coriolis spacecraft that detects/images coronal mass ejections (CMEs) • Where: Sun-synchronous circular orbit (840 km) • When: Launched 6 Jan 2003 • Details: • Produces all-sky maps each orbit (101 min) • Imaged 100 s of CMEs since 2003 launch • Will improve 1 -3 day forecasts of geomagnetic storms SMEI Movies (CLICK HERE) SMEI: 3 -Camera Configuration Halo CME (May 03) UNCLASSIFIED

AFRL Programs in SWx 5. C/NOFS Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System • Who: Jointly developed by AFRL and Do. D Space Test Program (SMC Det 12) • What: Satellite that locates and forecasts scintillation regions in the low latitude ionosphere • Where: Elliptical low earth orbit (400 x 710 km) • When: Scheduled for launch in 2006 • Details: • Contains 6 on-board instrument packages • Produces outage forecast maps for users • Forecast capability expected to grow from 3 -6 hour to 2 -5 days UNCLASSIFIED C/NOFS Satellite Drawings

AFRL Programs in SWx 6. HAARP High-Frequency Active Auroral Research Program • Who: Air Force/Navy/DARPA joint program • What: World-class facility for ionosphere and radio science research to exploit emerging technology for next generation Do. D systems • Where: Gakona, Alaska • When: 3600 k. W facility completion in 2006 Operating at 960 k. W since 1999 • Details: • Phased-array HF transmitter • Extensive array of diagnostic support instruments • RF transmissions generate effects observable from ULF (< 1 HZ) to UV (~1015 Hz) UNCLASSIFIED HAARP Movie (CLICK HERE) Aurora over HAARP Antenna Array HAARP HF Antenna Array

AFRL Programs in SWx 7. RBR Radiation Belt Remediation • Problem: High altitude nuclear detonation increases level of trapped radiation in LEO (e. g. 400 km); lifetime of space assets is significantly reduced • Solution Approach: Employ space-based VLF transmitters to “push” trapped particles out of the radiation belts and increase likelihood of satellite survival • Program Details: • • Currently conducting proof-of-concept experiments using ground-based VLF transmitters and receivers to validate an end-to-end physics-based operational Radiation Belt Remediation system model Developing VLF transmitter experiment to include on the Demonstration Space Experiment (DSX) satellite (launch after 2008) UNCLASSIFIED Radiation Belt Remediation: Conceptual Drawing DSX: “Stowed” Configuration

AFRL Programs in SWx 8. 72 Hour Forecasts Mid Near 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Far 2017 2018 2019 2020 ------- 2025 Solar Forecasting SDO+SOLGUARD Observational Inputs for Physical Models Adv Tech Solar Telescope (NASA/NSF) Solar Physics Models 4 Total = $25 M (0/20/5) ATST “Operational” 3 ATST First Science 6. 1 / SBIR Solar Sentinels 6. 2 6. 3 Integrated Demo Other Funding 3 D MHD Heliospheric propagation models 6 3 D Fluid Coronal Models w/ physical inputs Total = $32 M (7/25/0) 6 Leveraged Program Funded Transition Unfunded Transition Ionospheric Impacts Measure Model 6 6 SCINDA II upgrade 6 -hr Forecast of Scintillation Op C/NOFS Launch 6 6 Tactical Iono Sensor Demo 6 12 -hr Forecast of Scintillation 6. 1 6. 2 6. 3 2. 0 8. 7 2. 8 1. 9 8. 4 2. 8 1. 9 10. 1 3. 3 1. 8 10. 8 3. 0 1. 7 10. 7 3. 0 Total = $34 M (0/34/0) 24 -hr Forecast of Scintillation 6 11. 0 3. 4 11. 5 3. 4 5 Full SEDARS and nanosensor space demo 12+ hr, high-res forecast capability 6 1. 2 11. 8 3. 0 UNCLASSIFIED 1. 0 12. 1 2. 9 48 -hr Forecast of Scintillation Ops design validated Space Flag 6 Space tests of SEDARS components on satellites of opportunity Low-res real-time global specification forecast models 6 Technology Readiness Level 5 Transition Point (TAD) S 1 6 Space Radiation & Plasma Hazards Environment/effects sensors 6 Specification & Space Flag SCINDA III upgrade 12. 5 2. 1 Spiral Total = $32 M (3/29/0) Total = $30 M (0/30/0) 6 Next-generation sensor technology 36 hr, high-res specification and forecast capability 6 Total = $28 M (4/24/0) 13. 0 2. 3 13. 2 2. 6 65. 7 13. 6

Conclusion • • • Space environment is an increasingly important consideration in military operations AFRL SWx Center of Excellence is dedicated to exploring the space environment AFRL contributes significantly to the specification, forecast, mitigation, and exploitation of space weather effects UNCLASSIFIED

Acronym List ACE Advanced Composition Explorer AFOSR Air Force Office of Scientific Research AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory AFSPC Air Force Space Command AFWA Air Force Weather Agency AOR Area of responsibility ARSPACE Army Space Command BMD Ballistic Missile Defense C 2 Command Control CAV Common Air Vehicle CEASE Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor Experiment CENTCOM US Central Command CONOPS Concept of operations CME Coronal mass ejection C/NOFS Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System DILBERT Diffusion in (I, L, B) Energetic Radiation Transport Code DMSP Defense Meteorological Satellite Program UNCLASSIFIED

Acronym List Do. D Department of Defense DSP Defense Support Program DSX Deployable Structures Experiment ELF Extremely Low Frequency ESA European Space Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FFRDC Federally funded research and development center FLOT Forward line of troops GEO Geosynchronous Orbit GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GPS Global Positioning System GPS/NDS GPS Nuclear Detonation (NUDET) Detection System HAARP High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program HEO Highly Elliptical Orbit HF High Frequency ISOON Improved Solar Observing Optical Network ISR Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance UNCLASSIFIED

Acronym List JPL Jet Propulsion Laboratory LASCO Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph LEO Low Earth Orbit LORAN Long-Range Navigation MAJCOM Major Command MEO Medium Earth Orbit NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASCAP NASA-Air Force Spacecraft Charging Analysis Program NAVSPACE Naval Space Command NOAA National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration NSSA National Security Space Architect Op. SEND Operational Space Environment Network Display PNT Positioning, Navigation, Timing POES Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite PRISM Parameterized Real-time Ionospheric Specification Model R&D Research & development RF Radio Frequency UNCLASSIFIED

Acronym List SATCOM Satellite Communication SBIRS-LO Space-Based Infrared Sensors – Low Orbit SCINDA Scintillation Network Decision Aid SMC Space & Missile Systems Center SMEI Solar Mass Ejection Imager SOHO Solar & Heliospheric Observatory SOON Solar Observing Optical Network SWx Space weather TEC Total electron content USAF United States Air Force USGS US Geological Survey UHF Ultra High Frequency UV Ultraviolet VHF Very High Frequency VLF Very Low Frequency UNCLASSIFIED