Aided Decision Making Heads vs Formulas Kleinmuntz Flawed

Aided Decision Making

Heads vs Formulas - Kleinmuntz § § § Flawed Cognition Remediation of Flawed Cognition Improving Thinking Comparing Cognition Against Formulas Judgment and Formulas Cost/Benefit Trade-Off’s

Kleinmutz Observation about Judgment is flawed can be outperformed can be modeled by formulas is worthy of further study can be used in combination with formulas

Judgment § § Statistical or Intuitive Judgment Unaided Judgment Aided Judgment Statistical and Intuitive Judgment

Unaided Judgment § Heuristics, Cognitive Biases, & Limitations § Cognitive Suboptimality ¨ ¨ Illusory Correlation Overconfidence Relevance of Experience Cognitive Overload § Cognitive Correctness

Aided Judgment § § Bayesian Decision Analysis Signal Detection Theory Information Processing

Combining Heads & Formulas Cost and Benefits § Deluded Self-Confidence § Configural Complexities § Cost and Availability of Decision Supports

Summary § People still use their heads, flawed as they may be, because many decisions, inferences, choices, and problems have no available formulas. Where formulas are available, their evaluation is not feasible. § Conclusion - people should use their heads instead of, or together with, formulas as “seems” “most appropriate”.

Guidelines