Agriculture yield loss assessment using crop modeling for

Agriculture yield loss assessment using crop modeling for insurances Agricultural Demonstrator Christoph Gornott, Felicitas Röhrig October 22 nd, 2019

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Founded in 1992. Total budget 23 M € in 2018. Around 300 staff members & 100+ guest researchers • What we do: Addressing crucial scientific questions in the fields of global change, climate impacts and sustainable development • Who we are: Researchers from the natural and social sciences, working together to generate interdisciplinary insights and to provide society with sound information for decision making • How we work: Our main methods are systems and scenario analysis, modelling, computer simulation and data integration. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Stabilizing farmers’ incomes to cope with climate perils

Crop insurance solutions Agricultural demonstrator • Stabilizing farmers’ incomes to cope with climate perils • Most vulnerable people are smallholder farmers in Sub Saharan Africa • Insurances to enhance food security and indemnify livelihoods Examples • Promising solutions also in Tanzania and neighboring countries Challenges • Insurance company must cope systematic risk • Subsidies to make insurances affordable • Coverage of the weather-related risks • Management-related risks are uncovered 4 A Presentation by OASIS |Horizon 2020 Insurance www. h 2020 insurance. oasishub. co

Statistical yield model (AMPLIFY) Agricultural Model for Production Loss Identification to Insure Failures of Yields Remote Economy sensing Weather Yields Different statistical models: STSM, PDM, RCM Crop calendar Transformation of the variables Estimation Response Calculation od weatherrelated yield losses 5

Scientific results and innovation Relationship between observed and modeled yields Estimation 6 A Presentation by OASIS |Horizon 2020 Insurance www. h 2020 insurance. oasishub. co

Share of weather-related yield losses and premium costs Share of Weather [in %] Agricultural demonstrator Only 27% of the yield variability is attributable weather to Within Tanzania, the range is 4 – 57% Additional intervention are needed 141 million US$ p. a. of insurance premiums’ cost could be saved in Tanzania These are 72 U S $ ha-1 The insurance costs are 71 million U S $ p. a. (45 U S $ ha-1) 7 A Presentation by OASIS |Horizon 2020 Insurance www. h 2020 insurance. oasishub. co

Key activities Micro-Insurance Business Model Development Reinsurance Munich Re • • Business partner Interested in re-insurance in East Africa and India Insurance systems’ design Advise and feedback to local insurance providers and banks 8 A Presentation by OASIS |Horizon 2020 Insurance www. h 2020 insurance. oasishub. co

Stakeholder engagement and dissemination Micro-Insurance Business Model Development • World leading supplier for loss assessment identified by the Munich Re • Pilot study with Munich Re in Tanzania • Currently: crop yield assessment for India funded by the Munich Re • Tanzania: Engagement with several insurance brokers and insurance companies • Evaluation of insurance options (and other adaptation measures) in Western and Eastern Africa together with the GIZ • Several Side Event at the last COPs, strong engagement with Insu. Resilience 9 A Presentation by OASIS |Horizon 2020 Insurance www. h 2020 insurance. oasishub. co

Stakeholder engagement and dissemination Communication Shamba Shape Up • Special episode on insurances and climate change on television agricultural extension episode for smallholder farmers • Broadcasted in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda • 8 million weekly viewers 10 A Presentation by OASIS |Horizon 2020 Insurance www. h 2020 insurance. oasishub. co https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=f 0 ms. ZX 4 g 4 ZI

gornott@pik-potsdam. de Thank you.