Agricultural Manufacturing Service Demographic Transition Model A four

Agricultural Manufacturing Service • Demographic Transition Model: A four stage model that shows a similar process of population change in all societies over time…Has a predictive capability for economic and population growth • Every country is at some stage • The model is irreversible…you do not go back • There is a theoretical 5 th stage Demographic Transition Model Pre-Agriculture

DMT-Stage 1: Low Growth • Characteristics of Stage 1: • Very high CBR and CDR cancel each other out and low life expectancy • Almost no natural increase rate due to climate, warfare, disease and ecological factors. • Most of human history spent in stage one…pre-industrial society based on subsistence farming and seasonal migration (transhumance). • Countries in Stage 1: • No country is here today, but some Sub-Saharan African countries are right on the boundary between the first and second stage…Many people still live in stage 1 conditions Stage CBR CDR Life Expectancy NIR/RNI 1 High (2540) Low (33 -50) Low-Moderate (-0. 1 -1. 9%)

DMT-Stage 2: High Growth • Characteristics of Stage 2: • Rapidly declining CDR but CBR remains high and very high NIR/RNI • Improved agriculture and health care dropped CDR. • Mid-18 th to Late 19 th Century, the Industrial Revolution pushed countries in Europe as well as the U. S. , Japan, and Australia into Stage 2. • First time in world history to have significant growth • LDCs entered Stage 2 around 1950 when MDCs diffuse improved medical tech (vaccines) to LDCs. • Countries in Stage 2: • Most of Africa in stage 2 today as well as some countries in Asia…Periphery countries/LDCs Stage CBR CDR Life Expectancy NIR/RNI 2 High (2540) Decreasing (8 -25) Increasing (<70) Low-Moderate (1. 5 -3. 5%)

DMT-Stage 3: Moderate Growth • Characteristics of Stage 3: • CBR rapidly declines and CDR continues to decline slowly. NIR begins to moderate • CBR drops because of social customs – access to birth control, infant mortality rate drops, women in work force, kids become economic drain • MDC countries today entered during the first half of 20 th Century • Countries in Stage 3: • Asia and parts of Latin America moved here in recent years • Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) or Semi-Periphery are in a transition phase between Stage 2 and 3…i. e. Brazil Life Expectancy Stage CBR CDR 3 Lowering (12 -20) Low (5 -12) Higher(<78) NIR/RNI Lowering (0. 5 -1. 2%)

DMT-Stage 4: Low Growth • Characteristics of Stage 4: • Very low CBR and CDR produce almost no long-term natural increase and possibly a decrease • Zero pop growth: CBR and CDR are equal • TFR of 2. 1 produces zero growth • Countries in Stage 4 • Most European countries in stage 4 today • The United States is in a transition zone between Stage 3 and 4…we have characteristics of both • Countries with negative NIR…Russia and Japan (shrinking) on track for stage 5. Stage CBR CDR Life Expectancy NIR/RNI 4 Low (8 -16) Low (5 -12) Highest (<82) Low-Negative (-0. 8 to -0. 6%)

• In future if higher CDR than CBR then population decline will occur. • If a country stays in stage 5 without migration it will eventually cease to exist • Countries in Stage 5: • Japan, Sweden and Russia are possible candidates that are DMT-Stage 5: Decline • Characteristics of Stage 5:

• Model has 2 big breaks w/ the past • First break: sudden drop in death rate (stage 2) from technology and has taken place everywhere • Second break: sudden drop in birth rate (stage 3) comes from changing social customs and has not taken place everywhere • Population growth or decline is directly tied to the socioeconomic condition of the country and takes into consideration the need for children (a necessity or a Generalities of the Model • No one in stage 1… only a few have reached stage 4