Ag Outlook Oct 26 2017 Chad Hart Associate

Ag Outlook Oct. 26, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 95. 4 90. 6 88. 0 94. 0 90. 4 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 158. 1 171. 0 168. 4 174. 6 171. 8 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 829 14, 216 13, 602 15, 148 14, 280 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 821 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 295 Imports (mil. bu. ) 36 32 67 57 50 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 686 15, 479 15, 401 16, 942 16, 625 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 040 5, 280 5, 120 5, 464 5, 500 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 124 5, 200 5, 224 5, 438 5, 475 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 369 1, 401 1, 422 1, 452 1, 460 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 920 1, 867 1, 898 2, 293 1, 850 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 454 13, 748 13, 664 14, 647 14, 285 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 295 2, 340 4. 46 3. 70 3. 61 3. 36 3. 20 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76. 8 83. 3 82. 7 83. 4 90. 2 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 47. 5 48. 0 52. 0 49. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 358 3, 927 3, 926 4, 296 4, 431 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 141 92 191 197 301 Imports (mil. bu. ) 72 33 24 22 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 570 4, 052 4, 140 4, 515 4, 757 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 734 1, 873 1, 886 1, 899 1, 940 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 107 146 122 141 136 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 638 1, 842 1, 936 2, 174 2, 250 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 478 3, 862 3, 944 4, 214 4, 326 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 92 191 197 301 430 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 13. 00 10. 10 8. 95 9. 47 9. 20 Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Trade Million pounds Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Key factors for 2017 and beyond § Crops/Feedstuffs – BULLISH for livestock sector. § Supply – Growing and competing animal protein supplies. § Domestic Demand – Increasingly competitive environment, battle for market share. § Trade – Stabilizing factor. Strong exports and declining imports. § Producers resiliently charging ahead. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

+8. 1% (‘ 15 vs ‘ 14) +2. 4% (‘ 16 vs ‘ 15) +3. 2% (’ 17 YTD vs ’ 16 YTD) Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

LMIC Pork Production Quarterly Forecasts (10/2/17) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 3. 98 3. 57 Source: CME Group, 10/25/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 85 9. 70 Source: CME Group, 10/25/2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics