Ag MIP Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

Ag. MIP: Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W. Jones, and Jerry Hatfield NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York University of Florida, Gainesville USDA-ARS, Ames, Iowa September 10, 2012 Sub-Saharan Africa Ag. MIP Workshop September 10 -14, 2012 1 Accra, Ghana

Ag. MIP Science Teams • Climate – Alex Ruane • Crop Modeling – Ken Boote and Peter Thorburn • Crop Pilot leaders – wheat, maize, rice, potato, sorghum, potato • Economic Modeling – John Antle and Jerry Nelson • Information Technologies (IT) – Cheryl Porter and Sander Janssen • Cross-Cutting Themes • Uncertainty (Daniel Wallach, Mike Rivington) • Representative Agricultural Pathways (John Antle) • Aggregation Across Scales (Frank Ewert, Andy Challinor) • Regional Research Teams

What is Ag. MIP? • Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project • Aims to significantly advance scientific capabilities for addressing complex Ag & food security issues • Integrated assessments and evaluation of adaptation practices, policies • Targeting climate change and food security • Global and regional scales • Distributed project • Funded by USDA, DFID, NOAA, USAID, . . . 3

Why Ag. MIP? Broad Societal Impact Issues: Food Security • • • 2000 Rising Demand for Grain (Now and Future Projections) Food and Energy Price Spikes Increased Water Scarcity Availability of Arable Land for Expansion of Production Weather Extremes – Drought, Heat Waves, Floods Climate Change, Current Trends and Projections 2008 2011 4

Why Ag. MIP? • Food security problems presented on international news by Fareed Zakaria (CNN) on September 9, 2012, emphasizing that “Unless countries invest more in agricultural research and development, . . . ” more food crises are certain to happen in the future as populations continue to increase and major droughts occur as are happening this year in USA, Russia, India, . . . • Agricultural risks growing, including climate change • Consistent approach needed to enable agricultural sector analysis across relevant scales and disciplines • Long-term process lacking for rigorous agricultural model testing and improvement 5

Ag. MIP Initiatives – Track 2 Regional Assessment Programs Track 1 Track 2 – Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, South America, North America, Europe, East Asia – 6

Ag. MIP Elements and Linkages Cross-Cutting Themes Uncertainty Contributions of each component to uncertainty cascade Aggregation Across Scales Connecting local, regional, and global information Representative Agricultural Pathways Link to RCPs (Climate) SSPs (Economics) Improvements and Intercomparisons Crop Models Agricultural Economics Models Scenario Methods Spatial Aggregation Methods Key Interactions Climate Scenarios Crop Models Agricultural Economics Models Assessments Regional Global Water Resources Pests and Diseases Information Technologies Online Project Guidance, Archive, and Clearinghouse Livestock Capacity Building Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies Regional Vulnerability Trade Policy Instruments Technological Exchange

Ag. MIP SSA Workshop • Ag. MIP Regional Research Projects • Five projects funded in SSA and five projects in SA by DFID (UK-AID) • CGIAR support through financial management (ICRISAT) and scientist participation in Regional Research Teams (IFPRI, ICRISAT, CIAT, ILRI, IRRI, CIMMYT) • Also support for some scientist participation is from the CGIAR global program – Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS)

Ag. MIP SSA Workshop Goals • Build cohesiveness among SSA Ag. MIP teams • Review and refine regional integrated assessment methods and procedures • Review and refine specific plans of each team, aiming for unified outputs across SSA • Develop plans for scientific outputs and for communicating results to stakeholders

The Program This week • Day 1 – Introduction of people and of Regional Research Team programs • Day 2 – Detailed discussions of climate, cropping systems, economics, and IT goals and approaches with each team • Days 3 & 4 – Methods for implementing Ag. MIP protocols for integrated assessments • Day 5 – Refinement of Research Teams’ plans and identification of gaps that need filling 10

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Thank You Cynthia Rosenzweig and Granddaughter - Livia 12

Mobilizing agricultural scientists in collaborative efforts to substantially improve our capabilities to answer some of the most complex societal problems concerning agriculture and food security www. agmip. org 13

Global Pilot Crop-Climate Change Assessment Crop Modelers Contribute Site Results to Build Agm. IP Archive Over Time = Ag. MIP Questionnaire site = Additional possible sites 14