Ag Market Outlook Oct 4 2018 Chad Hart

Ag Market Outlook Oct. 4, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82. 7 83. 4 90. 1 89. 6 0. 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 48. 0 52. 0 49. 3 52. 8 1. 2 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 926 4, 296 4, 411 4, 693 107 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 191 197 302 438 8 Imports (mil. bu. ) 24 22 22 25 0 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 140 4, 515 4, 735 5, 156 116 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 886 1, 901 2, 055 2, 070 10 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 122 146 112 137 1 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 936 2, 166 2, 130 2, 060 0 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 944 4, 214 4, 289 4, 268 12 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 197 302 438 888 103 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 8. 95 9. 47 9. 35 8. 60 -0. 30 Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ 2018 88. 0 94. 0 90. 2 89. 1 0. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 168. 4 174. 6 176. 6 181. 3 3. 9 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 602 15, 148 14, 604 14, 827 241 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 138 Imports (mil. bu. ) 67 57 40 50 0 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 15, 401 16, 942 16, 937 17, 017 453 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 120 5, 470 5, 312 5, 575 50 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 224 5, 432 5, 600 5, 650 25 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 422 1, 453 1, 460 1, 480 0 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 898 2, 294 2, 425 2, 400 50 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 664 14, 649 14, 897 15, 105 125 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 1, 912 228 3. 61 3. 36 3. 40 3. 50 -0. 10 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB, with adjustments for Stocks Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

USDA Objective Soy Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

USDA Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2018 2017 crop Sales for 2016 crop Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Production Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 19 8. 56 Source: CME Group, 10/3/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 01 3. 67 Source: CME Group, 10/3/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics