Ag Market Outlook Oct 24 2018 Chad Hart

Ag Market Outlook Oct. 24, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ 2018 88. 0 94. 0 90. 2 89. 1 0. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 168. 4 174. 6 176. 6 180. 7 -0. 6 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 602 15, 148 14, 604 14, 778 -49 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 138 Imports (mil. bu. ) 67 57 36 50 0 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 15, 401 16, 942 16, 934 16, 968 89 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 120 5, 470 5, 302 5, 550 -25 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 224 5, 432 5, 601 5, 650 0 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 422 1, 453 1, 480 0 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 898 2, 294 2, 438 2, 475 75 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 664 14, 649 14, 793 15, 155 50 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 1, 813 39 3. 61 3. 36 3. 50 0. 00 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82. 7 83. 4 90. 1 89. 1 -0. 4 Yield (bu. /acre) 48. 0 52. 0 49. 3 53. 1 0. 3 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 926 4, 296 4, 411 4, 690 -4 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 191 197 302 438 44 Imports (mil. bu. ) 24 22 22 25 0 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 140 4, 515 4, 734 5, 153 40 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 886 1, 901 2, 055 2, 070 0 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 122 146 112 138 0 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 936 2, 166 2, 129 2, 060 0 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 944 4, 214 4, 296 4, 268 0 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 197 302 438 885 40 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 8. 95 9. 47 9. 33 8. 60 0. 00 Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

USDA Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Harvest Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Harvest Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

USDA Objective Soy Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soy Harvest Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soy Harvest Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Production Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: LMIC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Production Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: LMIC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2018 2017 crop Sales for 2016 crop Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Production Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 04 3. 72 Source: CME Group, 10/23/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 11 8. 52 Source: CME Group, 10/23/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics