Ag Market Outlook Nov 16 2018 Chad Hart
- Slides: 44
Ag Market Outlook Nov. 16, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 88. 0 94. 0 90. 2 89. 1 92. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 168. 4 174. 6 176. 6 178. 9 176. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 602 15, 148 14, 604 14, 626 14, 930 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 1, 736 Imports (mil. bu. ) 67 57 36 50 50 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 15, 401 16, 942 16, 934 16, 816 16, 716 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 120 5, 470 5, 298 5, 500 5, 575 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 224 5, 432 5, 605 5, 650 5, 700 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 422 1, 453 1, 480 1, 490 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 898 2, 294 2, 438 2, 450 2, 425 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 664 14, 649 14, 793 15, 080 15, 190 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 737 2, 293 2, 140 1, 736 1, 526 3. 61 3. 36 3. 60 3. 90 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Nov. reports Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82. 7 83. 4 90. 1 89. 1 82. 5 Yield (bu. /acre) 48. 0 52. 0 49. 3 52. 1 50. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 926 4, 296 4, 411 4, 600 4, 090 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 191 197 302 438 955 Imports (mil. bu. ) 24 22 22 25 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 140 4, 515 4, 734 5, 063 5, 070 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 886 1, 901 2, 055 2, 080 2, 075 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 122 146 112 128 127 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 936 2, 166 2, 129 1, 900 2, 075 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 944 4, 214 4, 296 4, 107 4, 277 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 197 302 438 955 793 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 8. 95 9. 47 9. 33 8. 60 8. 75 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for Nov. reports Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Corn Harvest Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Corn Harvest Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Soy Harvest Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Soy Harvest Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
+12% +4% +10% +16% +12% Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
+12% +4% +10% +16% +12% Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
+9% +4% +11% +6% Data Source: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
+9% +4% +11% +6% Data Source: USDA-NASS and USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Pork Production Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Profits since ‘ 14 have fueled herd expansion and facility investments… … Boosting capacity & Coordinating investment and throughput 2013 = +$6. 21 2014 = +$61. 85 2015 = +$7. 93 2016 = -$1. 26 2017 = +$11. 95 2018 f = -$4. 49 2019 f = +$4. 54 [-$25. 60 to +$24. 57] [+$13. 15 to +$107. 25] [-$18. 40 to +$26. 25] [-$35. 52 to +$32. 92] [-$12. 68 to +$47. 62] [-$40. 71 to +$26. 66] [-$19. 97 to +$28. 03] Source: Lee Schulz, Iowa State University Projected with Basis Adjusted Futures Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Slaughter capacity by Dr. Steve Meyer Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Beef Production Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Historically large margins in ‘ 14 -’ 15 drove rapid expansion Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
‘ 17 returns highest since ’ 03 – just lower than phenomenal ‘ 14… … Below breakeven returns projected for ‘ 18 & ‘ 19 2014 = +$197. 24 2015 = -$225. 12 2016 = -$110. 62 2017 = +$144. 86 2018 f = -$32. 36 2019 f = -$64. 95 [+$41 to +$269] [-$530 to +$43] [-$359 to +$113] [-$74 to +$415] [-$97 to +$103] [-$161 to +$19] Source: Lee Schulz, Iowa State University Projected with Basis Adjusted Futures Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Risks to Livestock Outlook: the usual suspects plus some § Major export disruption § Trade – Retaliatory tariffs, USMCA ratification § Labor – Plants, farms, immigration policy § Productivity/Weights – +/- numbers/pounds § Feed costs – 2 crop failures to match ‘ 12 -’ 13 § Demand: Will we see growth in ‘ 19? ─ Domestic: Preferences? Wages/incomes? Substitutes? ─ Exports: $US? Trade issues? More deals? § Slaughter capacity? Market for big supply? Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2018 2017 crop Sales for 2016 crop Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Production Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures 4. 01 3. 69 Source: CME Group, 11/15/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures 9. 28 8. 73 Source: CME Group, 11/15/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2019/20 Crop Margins w/ 2018 Costs Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
LMIC Dairy Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics (10/25/18)
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