Ag Market Outlook June 21 2018 Chad Hart

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Ag Market Outlook June 21, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu

Ag Market Outlook June 21, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 90. 6 88.

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 90. 6 88. 0 94. 0 90. 2 88. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 171. 0 168. 4 174. 6 176. 6 174. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 14, 216 13, 602 15, 148 14, 604 14, 040 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 102 Imports (mil. bu. ) 32 67 57 45 50 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 15, 479 15, 401 16, 942 16, 192 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 280 5, 120 5, 472 5, 500 5, 350 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 200 5, 224 5, 432 5, 575 5, 675 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 401 1, 422 1, 451 1, 465 1, 490 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 867 1, 898 2, 293 2, 300 2, 100 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 748 13, 664 14, 649 14, 840 14, 615 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 102 1, 577 3. 70 3. 61 3. 36 3. 40 3. 90 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil.

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83. 3 82. 7 83. 4 90. 1 89. 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 47. 5 48. 0 52. 0 49. 1 48. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 927 3, 926 4, 296 4, 392 4, 280 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 92 191 197 302 505 Imports (mil. bu. ) 33 24 22 25 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 052 4, 140 4, 515 4, 718 4, 810 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 873 1, 886 1, 901 2, 015 2, 000 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 146 122 139 133 135 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 842 1, 936 2, 174 2, 065 2, 290 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 862 3, 944 4, 213 4, 425 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 191 197 302 505 385 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 10. 10 8. 95 9. 47 9. 40 10. 00 Source: USDA -WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Production Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Production Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 03 3. 78 Source: CME Group, 6/20/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department

Current Corn Futures 4. 03 3. 78 Source: CME Group, 6/20/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 12 8. 99 Source: CME Group, 6/20/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department

Current Soybean Futures 9. 12 8. 99 Source: CME Group, 6/20/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2018/19 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2018/19 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and

Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ.

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics