Ag Market Outlook Feb 9 2021 Chad Hart

Ag Market Outlook Feb. 9, 2021 Chad Hart Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use Marketing Year (2020 = 9/1/20 to 8/31/21) 2017 2018 2019 2020Δ Area Planted (mil. acres) 90. 2 88. 9 89. 7 90. 8 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 176. 6 176. 4 167. 5 172. 0 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 14, 609 14, 340 13, 620 14, 182 0 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 2, 293 2, 140 2, 221 1, 919 0 Imports (mil. bu. ) 36 28 42 25 0 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 16, 939 16, 509 15, 883 16, 127 0 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 304 5, 429 5, 903 5, 650 0 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 605 5, 378 4, 852 4, 950 0 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 451 1, 425 1, 430 1, 425 0 Exports (mil. bu. ) 2, 438 2, 066 1, 778 2, 600 50 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 14, 799 14, 288 13, 963 14, 625 50 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 2, 140 2, 221 1, 919 1, 502 -50 3. 36 3. 61 3. 56 4. 30 0. 10 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use Marketing Year (2020 = 9/1/20 to 8/31/21) 2017 2018 2019 2020Δ Area Planted (mil. acres) 90. 2 89. 2 76. 1 83. 1 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 49. 3 50. 6 47. 4 50. 2 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 4, 412 4, 428 3, 552 4, 135 0 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 302 438 909 525 0 Imports (mil. bu. ) 22 14 15 35 0 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 735 4, 880 4, 476 4, 695 0 Crush (mil. bu. ) 2, 055 2, 092 2, 165 2, 200 0 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 113 127 105 125 0 Exports (mil. bu. ) 2, 129 1, 752 1, 682 2, 250 20 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 4, 297 3, 971 3, 952 4, 575 20 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 438 909 525 120 -20 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 9. 33 8. 48 8. 57 11. 15 0. 00 Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Speculative Interest - Corn Sources: CFTC and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Speculative Interest - Soybean Sources: CFTC and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 58 4. 37 Source: CME Group, 2/9/2021 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 11. 60 11. 36 Source: CME Group, 2/9/2021 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2020/21 Crop Price Projections Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2021/22 Crop Price Projections Based on futures prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Seasonal Pricing Patterns Source: USDA, NASS, Monthly Price Data Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 1980 -2018

Marketing Matrix Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Want to provide feedback on my presentation? https: //www. surveymonkey. com/r/Chad. Hart Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa State University is an equal opportunity provider. For the full non-discrimination statement or accommodation inquiries, go to www. extension. iastate. edu/diversity/ext. Iowa State University ofrece igualdad de oportunidades. Para ver la declaración completa de no discriminación o para consultas de acomodación, siga a este vinculo: www. extension. iastate. edu/diversity/ext. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics