Ag Market Outlook Feb 26 2018 Chad Hart

Ag Market Outlook Feb. 26, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 90. 6 88. 0 94. 0 90. 2 90. 0 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 171. 0 168. 4 174. 6 176. 6 174. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 14, 216 13, 602 15, 148 14, 604 14, 390 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 232 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 352 Imports (mil. bu. ) 32 67 57 50 50 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 15, 479 15, 401 16, 942 16, 947 16, 922 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 280 5, 120 5, 467 5, 550 5, 475 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 200 5, 224 5, 439 5, 525 5, 650 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 401 1, 422 1, 450 1, 470 1, 495 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 867 1, 898 2, 293 2, 050 1, 900 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 748 13, 664 14, 649 14, 595 14, 520 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 731 1, 737 2, 293 2, 352 2, 272 3. 70 3. 61 3. 36 3. 30 3. 40 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83. 3 82. 7 83. 4 90. 1 90. 0 Yield (bu. /acre) 47. 5 48. 0 52. 0 49. 1 48. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 927 3, 926 4, 296 4, 392 4, 320 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 92 191 197 302 530 Imports (mil. bu. ) 33 24 22 25 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 4, 052 4, 140 4, 515 4, 718 4, 875 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 873 1, 886 1, 899 1, 950 1, 980 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 146 122 141 139 135 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 842 1, 936 2, 174 2, 100 2, 300 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 862 3, 944 4, 213 4, 188 4, 415 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 191 197 302 530 460 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 10. 10 8. 95 9. 47 9. 30 9. 25 Source: USDA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

South American Weather Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 11 3. 98 3. 52 Source: CME Group, 2/23/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 10. 09 9. 87 9. 66 Source: CME Group, 2/23/2018 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2017/18 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2018/19 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics