Advancing Sectoral Climate Early Warning Information in the

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Advancing Sectoral Climate Early Warning Information in the Caribbean: December 2017 -May 2018 Progress

Advancing Sectoral Climate Early Warning Information in the Caribbean: December 2017 -May 2018 Progress Roché Mahon, Adrian Trotman Caribbean Regional Climate Centre Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) 2018 Wet/Hurricane Season Cari. COF Friday May 26 th, 2018 Accra Beach Hotel, Christchurch, Barbados

Damage and Loss: A compelling case for action Year Event Country Damage/Loss 2004 Hurricane

Damage and Loss: A compelling case for action Year Event Country Damage/Loss 2004 Hurricane Ivan Grenada 200% of GDP 2005 Floods Guyana 59% of GDP 2010 Hurricane Tomas Saint Lucia 60% of GDP 2009/2010 Drought Several • • 2015 TS Erika Dominica 96% of GDP 2016 Drought 2017 Hurricanes Irma and Maria Future Outlook: reduced crop production increased bushfires widespread water shortages increase in food prices Increase in inflation 10 Caribbean territories 225% of GDP in Dominica; > 300% of GDP in the BVI A World Bank (Toba, 2009) estimates future annual direct losses (given in US dollar values for the year 2007) due to weather and climate-related disasters to be in the range of billions of US dollars.

Climate Monitoring suite Drought and rainfall, temperature Supports our regional Climate Watch Max. Temperature

Climate Monitoring suite Drought and rainfall, temperature Supports our regional Climate Watch Max. Temperature Produced through two in-house-built tools Reference Climatologies https: //rcc. cimh. edu. bb/caribbean-climatology/1981 -2010/

Climate Forecast suite MJJ 2018 Frequency of wet days MJJ 2018 frequency of extreme

Climate Forecast suite MJJ 2018 Frequency of wet days MJJ 2018 frequency of extreme 3 -day wet spells Climate Products Partnering with the NMHSs Oct - Dec 2015 observed tercile-based rainfall categories 0 -/3 -ml Tercile-based precip. and temp. outlooks + verification Apr – Jun 2017 observed tercile-based minimum temperature categories Seasonal forecasts up to 3 -6 month ahead Thematic / hazard-specific outlooks Rainfall totals Mean, maximum and minimum temperatures More meaningful Drought – alerting system Wet days (Extreme) wet spells Coral bleaching thermal stress for Aug. to Nov. 2017 Coral bleaching alert levels (0 -/4 --ml)

Experimental climate products Seasonal heatwave frequency outlooks (up to 6 months) Probability of at

Experimental climate products Seasonal heatwave frequency outlooks (up to 6 months) Probability of at least 14 heatwave days between Jun. & Sep. Probability of at least 60 heatwave days between Jun. & Nov. Seasonal dry spells frequency outlooks (3 months) MAX. number of 7 -day dry spells between May & Jul. Probability of at least ONE 15 -day dry spell between May & Jul. Seasonal rainfall exceedance outlooks for crop water demand (3 months) Probability of meeting water demand for sweet potato Probability of meeting water demand for sugar cane Drought monitoring products (SPEI, SPI change)

Climate Risk Management Climate risk management (CRM): “a systematic and coordinated process in which

Climate Risk Management Climate risk management (CRM): “a systematic and coordinated process in which climate information is used to reduce the risks associated with climate variability and change, and to take advantage of opportunities, opportunities in order to improve the resilience of social, economic and environmental systems” (Martínez et al. 2012). Climate services: the “timely production and delivery of useful climate data and knowledge to decision-makers” (National Research Council 2001).

Vision of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): “To enable better management of

Vision of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): “To enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change, through the development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice on the global, regional and national scale. ” (WMO, 2011, 2014) Source: WMO, 2014 Crystallised at the World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) in Geneva, Switzerland in 2009 Targeted sectors: Agriculture & Food Security, Water, Disaster Risk Management, Health, Energy and Tourism (Caribbean)

Caribbean Roll-out of GFCS Phase 1: 2013 Main partner: World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Key

Caribbean Roll-out of GFCS Phase 1: 2013 Main partner: World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Key activities: • Regional Workshop on Climate Services at the National Level for the Caribbean, May 2013, Trinidad and Tobago • National consultations and Roadmap development exercises: Belize, Trinidad and Tobago, Dominica, Suriname, and Guyana • RCC website – a climate information platform Phase 2: 2014 -2018 Main partners: WMO, USAID BRCCC Programme, ECCC Programme Key activities: • Baseline assessment of user needs and provider capacity • Consortium of Sectoral EWISACTs Coordination Partners • Enhanced Agro-Climatic Bulletin, new Health. Climatic and Tourism-Climatic Bulletins • New promotional materials and platforms • Research, publications and capacity-building (health, agriculture, tourism) • National EWISACTs Workshops: Mapping Provider and User Capacity: Belize, Trinidad and Tobago, Dominica, Barbados, and Jamaica • Draft Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Plan of Action Phase 3: 2019 -2028 Main partners: Multiple Key activities to support: OA 1. Strengthened institutional context for climate risk management (CRM) at regional, national and sectoral scales; OA 2. Harmonised climate and sectoral information production systems across climate timescales OA 3. Increased generation of tailored, sectorspecific climate information at regional and national scales; and OA 4. Improved sectoral decision-making for CRM at regional and national scales. Jamaica meeting (Dec 2016)

New Sectoral EWISACTs webpage Resource hub includes: • Key conceptual and implementation documents •

New Sectoral EWISACTs webpage Resource hub includes: • Key conceptual and implementation documents • Research documents • Hyperlinks to sector-specific climate bulletins rcc. cimh. edu. bb/ewisacts

Research and publications (Dec 2017 -May 2018) Health-Climate: Development of a climate driven spatio-temporal

Research and publications (Dec 2017 -May 2018) Health-Climate: Development of a climate driven spatio-temporal modelling framework for vector-borne diseases Ø Ryan, S. , Lippi, C. , Carlson, C. , Stewart-Ibarra, A. , Borbor-Cordova, M. , Romero, M. , . . . Daniel, S. (Accepted February 2018). Zika virus outbreak, Barbados, 2015 -2016. American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene. Ø Lowe, R. , Gasparrini, A. , Van Meerbeeck, C. J. , Lippi, C. , Mahon, R. , Trotman, A. R. , . . . Stewart Ibarra, A. M. (Submitted May 2018). Non -linear and delayed climate impacts on dengue risk in a Caribbean small island developing state. PLOS Medicine. Social science: Ø Mahon, R. , Greene, C. , Cox, S. -A. , Guido, Z. , Gerlak, A. , Petrie, J. , Trotman, A. , Liverman, D. , Van Meerbeeck, C. J. , Scott, W. & Farrell, D. (Submitted April 2018). Fit for Purpose? Envisioning National Climate Service Centers in the Caribbean. Climate Services. Operational sector-specific bulletins: ØQuarterly TCB and HCB: Vol 2, Issue 1 (March-April-May 2018); ØMonthly ACB: Vol 1, Issues 8 -11

Draft 2: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Po. A 2018 -2029

Draft 2: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Po. A 2018 -2029

Towards a Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Plan of Action: Round 2 Roché Mahon, Adrian

Towards a Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Plan of Action: Round 2 Roché Mahon, Adrian Trotman, Cisne Pascal, David Farrell Caribbean Regional Climate Centre Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) 4 th Meeting of the Consortium of Regional Sectoral EWISACTs Coordination Partners Tuesday May 22, 2018 Accra Beach Hotel, Christchurch, Barbados

Multi-phase Participatory Process Stage 1 (June-Nov 2017) Stage 2 (Dec 2017 - May 2018)

Multi-phase Participatory Process Stage 1 (June-Nov 2017) Stage 2 (Dec 2017 - May 2018) - Stakeholder input (Close-Out Meeting, June 2017) - Stakeholder review and input (Cari. COF, Nov 2017) - Consortium partner review and input (4 th Consortium Meeting, May 2018) - Stakeholder review and input (Cari. COF, May 2018) Output: Draft 1 Roadmap and Plan of Action Output: Draft 2 Roadmap and Plan of Action Stage 3 (May– Dec 2018) - Consortium grouping review, input and adoption (TBD) - Final stakeholder review and adoption (2018 Dry Season Cari. COF) Output: Final Roadmap and Plan of Action Research (user needs assessment & provider capacity assessment)

Draft 2: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Po. A 20182029

Draft 2: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Po. A 20182029

Theory of Change – simple Sectoral EWISACTs example Input(s) 1) Law, policy experts/ trainers,

Theory of Change – simple Sectoral EWISACTs example Input(s) 1) Law, policy experts/ trainers, NMHS and sector participants, budget 2) CBA experts, budget Activity 1)Stakeholder Workshops 2) Valuation research Output(s) 1) # of new/enhanced laws and policies 2) # of NMHSs with budgetary increase Outcome Goal Strengthened institutional context for climate risk management (CRM) at regional, national and sectoral scales Increased resilience of climate sensitive sectors in the Caribbean Adapted from: Weiss, 1995

Draft 2: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Po. A 20182029

Draft 2: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Po. A 20182029

Draft 1: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap (Nov 2017)

Draft 1: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap (Nov 2017)

Draft 2: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Po. A 20182029

Draft 2: Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Po. A 20182029

Working document for your review

Working document for your review

Section 6: Sectoral EWISACTs Plan of Action 2018 -2029

Section 6: Sectoral EWISACTs Plan of Action 2018 -2029

Roadmap and Po. A ME&R Architecture Evolution Component 2018 Status 2028 Status Roadmap and

Roadmap and Po. A ME&R Architecture Evolution Component 2018 Status 2028 Status Roadmap and Po. A Yes Impact statement Yes Outcome statements Yes Baseline Yes (nascent) Yes Targets (at output, outcome and impact levels) Yes (nascent) Yes Indicators (at impact levels) Yes (nascent) Yes RBM approach Yes (nascent) Yes Programme-based approach Yes (nascent) Yes output, and ME&R mechanisms regional levels at national and × Yes Harmonized system Consortium partners of × Yes Yes Control group × × Counterfactuals × × Independent evaluation Note: × = Not present outcome ME&R with

Working Group Session Goal: To continue the process of seeking the input of sectoral

Working Group Session Goal: To continue the process of seeking the input of sectoral representatives and the climate service provider community into the development of the Sectoral EWISACTs Roadmap and Plan of Action 2019 -2028. Task: 1. Sections 1 -5: Critique & augment current draft content; 2. Sections 6: a) Critique identified gaps; b) Identify outputs for addressing gaps over the 10 year implementation period. 3. Sections 7 -10: Critique & augment current draft content. Exercise Output: 1. Edited and revised Word document; and 2. Plenary presentation of group work.