Adding New Data Elements to an Ongoing Survey

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Adding New Data Elements to an Ongoing Survey: Operational and Response Issues International Conference

Adding New Data Elements to an Ongoing Survey: Operational and Response Issues International Conference on Establishment Surveys Montreal, 2007 Richard Rosen, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics rosen. [email protected] gov Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not constitute policy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Current Employment Statistics Survey n n One of the oldest and largest US Surveys

Current Employment Statistics Survey n n One of the oldest and largest US Surveys Number of workers, payroll and hours Monthly Quick turnaround: n n Reference period is the pay period of the 12 th 12 collection days Data published first Friday of following month Data closely watched by policymakers, financial markets, media, business, labor

Current Data Items n n n All Employees Woman Employees Production/Construction/Nonsupervisory n n Employees

Current Data Items n n n All Employees Woman Employees Production/Construction/Nonsupervisory n n Employees Payroll Hours Overtime (Manufacturing)

New Data Items n All Employee n n Payroll Hours Overtime (Manufacturing) Gross Monthly

New Data Items n All Employee n n Payroll Hours Overtime (Manufacturing) Gross Monthly Earnings (GME)

Reason for New Data Items n n n Production workers only comprise about 80%

Reason for New Data Items n n n Production workers only comprise about 80% of total, therefore the hours/earnings measures are not comprehensive Research showed that more respondents could provide total payroll and hours GME: broader measure of earning wanted by BEA for personal income and GDP

Data Item Issues: OLD n Production/Construction/Nonsupervisory n n n Definition not clearly understood Hard

Data Item Issues: OLD n Production/Construction/Nonsupervisory n n n Definition not clearly understood Hard to obtain from payroll records Data item response about 40% for payroll/hours

Data Item Issues: NEW n n n Availability of Hours for Supervisors/managers, etc. Multiple

Data Item Issues: NEW n n n Availability of Hours for Supervisors/managers, etc. Multiple payrolls (i. e. . Managers paid biweekly, Nonsupervisory paid weekly) Gross Monthly Earnings: New concept, different time period

Tasks n n Forms Design Systems Updates n n n Two processing/estimation systems Six

Tasks n n Forms Design Systems Updates n n n Two processing/estimation systems Six collection systems Data transport system Estimator for GME Train interviewers and other staff

Planning n n Began in 2003 for implementation in 2005 Teams to work on

Planning n n Began in 2003 for implementation in 2005 Teams to work on all major aspects n n Forms Systems Edits Estimation

Forms n n n How to get additional data items on form (twice as

Forms n n n How to get additional data items on form (twice as many items) How to handle multiple payrolls Separation of GME from other items n n n Different concept/definition Different time period (entire month) Different “reasons for change”

Forms-Cont. n n · Interdisciplinary Team Developed four different layouts Expert review Two rounds

Forms-Cont. n n · Interdisciplinary Team Developed four different layouts Expert review Two rounds of cognitive field tests Downey, Goldenberg, Rosen, Gomes, Manning, “Cognitive Testing of New Forms for the Current Employment Statistics Survey”, ASA, August 2005.

CES Collection Form-New

CES Collection Form-New

Edits: No Real History n What would relationship be between All Employee Earnings and

Edits: No Real History n What would relationship be between All Employee Earnings and Production Worker Earnings? n n GME even more difficult n n General expectation that it would be higher, but by how much Inclusion of bonuses, stock options, severance pay could really skew data Made some initial assumptions; revised as actual data became available

Respondents n n How to notify respondents of change? How will respondents react? n

Respondents n n How to notify respondents of change? How will respondents react? n n n More data items Increased burden Will response rates suffer?

Respondent Contact n n Varied by mode Many respondents on self-reporting modes; touchtone, mail.

Respondent Contact n n Varied by mode Many respondents on self-reporting modes; touchtone, mail. CATI: Interviewer began to discuss two months before change FAX: Interviewers made special efforts to contact in advance

Respondent Contact-cont. n n n Special Transition Letter Electronic: Began intensive work with firms

Respondent Contact-cont. n n n Special Transition Letter Electronic: Began intensive work with firms to reprogram electronic files Touchtone and mail: Designed “mock form” to highlight new items

Results Overall transition has been successful n Higher data item response for All Employee

Results Overall transition has been successful n Higher data item response for All Employee Payroll/Hours n Reasonably high item response for GME But: n Overall response rates have declined n

Data Item Response AE Payroll and GME reporting mostly mirrors what respondents were providing

Data Item Response AE Payroll and GME reporting mostly mirrors what respondents were providing for PW Payroll by mode n TDE: Good reporters= high response n CATI/FAX: More reluctant reporter, hence need CATI= modest response n EDI: Many large firms not currently providing PW payroll; difficult to convince firms to reprogram their data files; slow improvement

Data Item Response Rates

Data Item Response Rates

Looking at the new data … n n Hourly Earning for All Workers averages

Looking at the new data … n n Hourly Earning for All Workers averages about 15% higher than current series Gross Monthly Earnings is somewhat volatile, shows spikes at end of each quarter, especially 4 th Quarter; likely due to Bonus Payments

Conclusion n Conversion to new data elements appears to be successful. Conversion has been

Conclusion n Conversion to new data elements appears to be successful. Conversion has been easier with smaller firms. Some decline in overall response due to increased respondent burden Trade-off in terms of improved data item response and usefulness of new data