Adaptation as Decisionmaking The Example of Private Adaptation

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Adaptation as Decisionmaking The Example of Private Adaptation to Flood Events Torsten Grothmann Potsdam

Adaptation as Decisionmaking The Example of Private Adaptation to Flood Events Torsten Grothmann Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research UNFCCC, Twentieth Sessions of the Subsidiary Bodies, 16 -25 June 2004, Bonn, Germany European Environment Agency (EEA) Side Event on Vulnerability and Adaptation, 19 June

Objectives of Adaptation Research w Academic assessment to understand vulnerability: What adaptations are likely?

Objectives of Adaptation Research w Academic assessment to understand vulnerability: What adaptations are likely? Are we already sufficiently prepared? To correctly assess climate change costs or risks, it is essential to include socalled “autonomous adaptation” by the affected human or natural systems. w Policy assessment to reduce vulnerability: What adaptations are recommended? What needs to be done to be sufficiently prepared? Since autonomous adaptation is often not sufficient to avoid climate change impacts additional “planned adaptation” is needed. Grothmann: Adaptation as Decisionmaking 2

Predicting Autonomous Adaptation w The assessment of future autonomous adaptation is subject to many

Predicting Autonomous Adaptation w The assessment of future autonomous adaptation is subject to many assumptions and much speculation! w Implicit in most vulnerability studies to date is the assumption that there are no constraints on implementing the adaptation options identified analysed. w Information on the extent to which resources are available and will probably be available in the future for adaptation will give a more reliable picture of vulnerability to climate change. Grothmann: Adaptation as Decisionmaking 3

From Adaptation to Adaptive Capacity w Adaptive capacity is the potential or ability of

From Adaptation to Adaptive Capacity w Adaptive capacity is the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate change. “ (IPCC, 2001) w Factors that determine adaptive capacity of human systems include economic wealth, technology and infrastructure, information, knowledge and skills, institutions, equity and social capital. Grothmann: Adaptation as Decisionmaking 4

From Adaptive Capacity to Decisionmaking w Social systems as well as individuals often do

From Adaptive Capacity to Decisionmaking w Social systems as well as individuals often do not do, what they could do based on their objective resources. w Therefore, assessments of autonomous adaptation based on adaptive capacity overestimate autonomous adaptation and underestimate vulnerability. w Understanding the processes of decisionmaking that underlie adaptation can help to improve vulnerability assessments‘ accuracy. Grothmann: Adaptation as Decisionmaking 5

A Model of Decisionmaking based on Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1983) Objective Risk +

A Model of Decisionmaking based on Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1983) Objective Risk + Perceived Risk + Maladaptive Coping e. g. , Denial, Wishful thinking, Fatalism Objective Adaptive Capacity + - + Adaptation Intention + Adaptation + Perceived Adaptive Capacity Grothmann: Adaptation as Decisionmaking 6

The Example of Private Households‘ Flood Adaptation Survey study with 1000 residents in flood

The Example of Private Households‘ Flood Adaptation Survey study with 1000 residents in flood prone areas of East and West Germany High Perceived Adaptive Capacity Low Some flood preparedness, low maladaptive coping High flood preparedness, low maladaptive coping No flood Preparedness, high maladaptive coping Low High Perceived Risk Grothmann: Adaptation as Decisionmaking 7

The Example of Private Households‘ Flood Adaptation II w The Model based on perceptions

The Example of Private Households‘ Flood Adaptation II w The Model based on perceptions of risk and adaptive capacity could explain flood adaptation much better than a model based on objective risk and adaptive capacity w Best results could be generated with a model combining perceptual and objective factors w Perceived Adaptive Capacity was generally very low with regard to flood adaptation w The most important factor explaining Perceived Adaptive Capacity was model behavior by neighbors Grothmann: Adaptation as Decisionmaking 8

Conclusions w Autonomous adaptation and therefore vulnerability can be assessed better by including knowledge

Conclusions w Autonomous adaptation and therefore vulnerability can be assessed better by including knowledge about human decisionmaking Grothmann: Adaptation as Decisionmaking w Planned adaptation can profit from understanding the processes of decisionmaking that underlie autonomous adaptation 9