Activities Plans 2007 Dijana Klaric Met service of

Activities & Plans 2007 Dijana Klaric Met service of Croatia RC LACE Project Leader 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 1

RC LACE report Ø Environment & Ø R&D highlights Ø Operations and Common actions ü Project Evaluation ü Future 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 2

ALADIN Project F, Ro, Bg, Cz, Hu, Sk, PL, A, Mc, Si, Cr, B, Pt, Tu, Al (Mo, Tk, . . . . ) --I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I----I----I 1990 1996 ------------2002 2007

LACE Project 1990 -> ALADIN Project v Operations and R&D project v Members sharing the ambitions v Romania membership (November 2006) v Central and SE Europe 1990 -> o R&D project o Members with different NWP ambitions MF-LACE backbone Structure & Budget LACE is a tool for ALADIN activity in C&SE E 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 4

Regional Cooperation environment Members: Au-Cr-Cz-Hu-Ro-Si-Sk Co-operation: R&D on meso-scale NWP Operations Common actions ü RC LACE Mo. U ü RC LACE Budget 18 -21 Sept 2007 v 7 NWP teams v LACE MG Project Leader, 4 Working Group Leaders, ALADIN SC, Data Manager MF partner ALADIN partners HIRLAM SRNWP 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 5

R&D overview LACE Scientific Plans 2006; 2007 Ä Ä main input for ALADIN Scientific plans IFS environment (spectral space): Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro 10 km) -Arome (2. 5 km) Ä R&D working groups: Dynamics , Physics , Data Assimilation, Predictability Ä 40 scientists: 7 NWP teams + visitors Ä 25 -30 pxm funds Leading NWP results: ü NH Dynamics -->>> 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 6

Dynamics and Coupling ÄNH ALADIN Dynamics - core for NH ALADIN and AROME models - tests at ECMWF ( to become the next IFS dynamics) - Vertical finite elements (Hy, NH ) Ä Other dynamical issues SLHD filter Dynamics –Physics interface TL/AD for ALADIN SL – (4 D Var tool) 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 7

VFE for NH ALADIN -more accurate then Finite Differences -coded for Hy (Hortal ) and NH (Vivoda) -Stability tests (stil noisy at BC) Results: Ref FD, 35 lev , dt=5 s Ref FD, 100 lev, dt=5 s 18 -21 Sept 2007 Ref VFE, 35 lev, dt=5 s X-term, Z-term-FD Ref VFE, 100 lev, dt=5 s (X-term, Z-term-FD)

SLHD – Semi Lagrangian Horizontal Diffusion - non-linear scheme -triggered by flow field deformation -special care to control orography triggered noise Results: on Prognostic Physics variables TKE over flat orog. A R O M E 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 9

Physics System AAA Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro 10 km) -Arome (2. 5 km) Physic packages : ALADIN/ARPEGE - global and LAM- sharing phy. meso-NH physics - base for AROME meso-γ model ALARO physics - multi-scale physics for 10 -5 km: New governing equ. and progn. water species 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 10

Physics (10 km->5 km) ALARO transition o o ALARO-0, step 1 (system) n Equations and interface (loss of mass due to precipitation is considered ); n Prognostic cloud water (microphysics 5 water species); n Radiation –NER formulation; n Turbulence (pseudo- prognostic TKE scheme); n Cloudiness issue (improved optical properties, new saturation cloud model) ALARO-0, step 2 (multi-scale, “grey-zone”) n Sub-grib scale convection - 3 MT - Microphysics and Transport for SGS convection +Multiscale +Modular =3 MT 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 11

ALARO Diagnostics Ä Model consistency and performance (ALARO: more memory, less CPU – better optinimized) Ä DDH tool for diagnostic (IFS basic, AAA developed) Ä Model comparison ALARO vs ALADIN Phy Ä ALARO –v 0: operative at CZ, Be, . . . (new ALADIN) 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 12

2 MT – What has been done – Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS) 2 MT: Multiscale Microphysics and Transport. 7 km 4 km 2 km Cas du 10/09/2005. Cumul de précipitation en 1 h (mm). Source Gerard (QJRMS 2007). • MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics relevant for « grey zone » 2 MT. 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 13

ALARO plans 2007 -> Ä Governing equations: extension to compressible case (NH) Ä Pseudo-prognostic TKE-scheme: new mixing length formulation; an 'analytical' CBR interpretation within p-TKE Ä Gravity wave drag parametrization: re-tune for no- envelope orography Ä 3 MT: validation and tuning, sensitivity to midtroposphere humidity , test of convection diurnal cycle (Team; JF Geleyn, JM Piriou, B Catry, L Gerard, R Brozkova, N Pristov, M Tudor, F Vana, J Masek, D Banciu. . . ) 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 14

Data Assimilation ALADIN/ 3 D VAR – HMS Research focus • ∆x=12 km; 37 vertical L o • 6 hour cycle o • 3 D-VAR for the upper air fields o • substitution of the surface fields by the ARPEGE ones o • B matrix: NMC method • LBC: long cut-off ARPEGE analysis, 3 h coupling frequency 18 -21 Sept 2007 Ensemble B matrics 3 D-FGAT –ALADIN (transition to 4 D-Var) Observations AMV, SEVIRI Blending initialization (with surface OI –CANARI) (team: Boloni, Kertesz, Trojakova, Majek, Randriamampianina) 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 15

3 D FGAT - hourly SYNOPs, AIREP, SATOB increments tests; observation window; Results: 3 D FGAT vs 3 DVar (all measurements) Red- 3 D FGAT better (Z, RH, U, V) o o 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens R M S B I A S 16

SEVIRI data analysis by ALADIN -3 DVar Tests: Ø with 2 ways for B Matrix computation: NMC vs Ensemble Ø diff 3 D Var resolutions (12 km/37 L vs 8 km/45 L) Ø Tuning of obs-error statistics Results on SEVIRI impact : q Impact be similar to ATOVS data (AMSU-A or AMSU-B) assimilated in high resolution; o Impact depending on the parameters (Rh, Z) and model levels; o Negative impact near the surface needs further tests with more surface measurements (2 m T, 2 m RH) -coupled with SEVIRI 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 17

WG on Predictability Research focus n Uncertenties at initial conditions ALADIN Singular Vector (SV) Breeding, ETKF, blending Blending ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation Multi-physics parameterizations ( 11 mem, diff tuning, diff schem. ) n Downscaling of ECMWF EPS n Clustering approaches for downscaling ECMWF EPS ( ECMWF Tech. Memo. 507, Jan 2007) (team: Wang, Kann, Horanyi, Bellus, Ivatek-Sahdan, Hagel, etc) n 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 18

Uncertenties at initial conditions T-perturbations for: SV, breeding, blended Blending: ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation o Blended perturbations have the highest spread (red curve) 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 19

Multi-physics option 11 members, Bougeault-type, Kain-Fritsch deep convection scheme, moisture convergence and CAPE closure in the convection scheme, Kessler-type scheme for LP, Lopez microphysics scheme 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 20

WG on Predictability Common tools and products n Verification package LAEF products Down. of ECMWF EPS (16+cont, 18 km) EPS grams Probability charts Stamps Planned: Multi-physics Blending n 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 21

2007 ALADIN-LACE-HIRLAM actions üALARO training at Radostovice, March 2007 14 participants all LACE Members (+ MF, Be, PT, Mc + Denmark) üGLAMEPS Project at ECMWF ( HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE EPS project) üALADIN-HIRLAM coordination on SURFACE and DA issues üALADIN-HIRLAM general WS at Oslo April 2007 ØLACE training on CANARI at Budapest, Nov 2007 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 22

GLAMEPS “grand” EPS Meso-scale real-time EPS >100 members v v HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE alterative of using several sub-European and less populated ensemble systems which single NMSs could run on their own Common: operations, product distribution and verification Desirable set-ups : „large” domain: 22 km, 37 levels, 320 x 300 points, +60 h int. Two phases ü Laboratory phase at ECMWF (2007 -2008) Ø Distributed production stage (2008 -2009) 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 23

GLAMEPS_v 0 - test phase HIRLAM -66 members ALADIN – 20 members v ECMWF targeted v Downscaling of ECMWF EPS 22 km/44 km ALADIN v lat/lon post-proc. (INM sys) v Next step: ALADIN native singular vectors (tests) (OT =+12 h, +24 h) singular vectors (TSV) v OT - 24 h -3 TSV domains - 2 HIRLAM physics - (10 memx 2 mod x 3 dom) 18 -21 Sept 2007

FDP MAP D-Phase MAP D-phase Demonstration Project (June-Nov 2007) - Probabilistic hydrological and meteorological simulations for heavy rains and flood events - Contribution of LACE via Austrian team ALADIN/Austria for deterministic products (∆x= 9. 6 km, 45 levels, dyn. adaptation) ALADIN LAEF probability products (24 h precipitation) (∆x= 18 km, 37 levels, 16 mem +contr. from ECMWF EPS) Disseminated to MAP D-Phase center 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 25

RC LACE common actions Centralized Verification: (Ljubljana) Ø Ø Ø (Data Manager; Budapest) Client/server system All ALADIN mod. results Tool for basic scores (synoptic scale) Monthly reporting procedure Portable to members 18 -21 Sept 2007 ODB activities: ODB training ODB help-desk Interactive Obs. Monitoring for Var DA Ø Monthly reporting procedure Ø QC for each station Ø Comparison of Var DA results Exchange of HR observations monitoring of obs network at MS 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 26

www. rclace. eu 18 -21 Sept 2007 (public and private zone) 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 27

RC LACE Operations: +72 h integration, Domain Hor. res. A 300 x 270 9. 6 45 25 t 2 (29 t 2, Lopez) e 001, CANARI (INCA), LAEF Cr 229 x 205 8. 0 37 29 t 1, SHLD, new phy, mean orog. e 001, DADA, ODB Cz 320 x 288 9. 0 43 29 t 2, SLHD, new phy. , mean orog. DFI blending, CANARI, ODB e 001, ALARO phy. H 432 x 384 8. 0 49 28 t 3 3 DVAR, CANARI, e 001, DADA Si 258 x 244 9. 5 Sk 320 x 288 9. 0 18 -21 Sept 2007 Vert. Physics res. 00 (06), 12, (18) UTC runs 7 7 Config. 3 29 t 2, SHLD, low cloudiness e 001, DADA 3 28 t 3 e 001, DADA, (INCA), ODB 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 28

RC LACE Evaluation Project Evaluation after 10 years of common activities (1996 -2006) Ø Goals: - To provide objective view of Project - To range a LACE to NWP objectives - To give independent advices about future development Ø Input for new LACE structure 2008 -> 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 29

General recommendations (Quality of Project) v Strategy and planning (short-term, long-term; users demands) v Management structure (competence, authority) v Internal/external communications (WWW, visibility, NWP consortia) v Role of NWP systems at LACE centers (AAA models as the primary subjects) 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 30

Recommendations for Task Sharing Methods: Reasons: ü To overcome the duplication of the operational efforts. ü To suppress draining of resources on maintaining and downstream applications. ü To provide small NWP centers with a complete NWP system. 18 -21 Sept 2007 Define the common tasks Agreement on Lead Centres for specific areas Lead Centers: o for research o for operations Results: v Efficient use of the available manpower. v Specialisation of the NWP teams. 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 31

LACE Future 2008 -> Ø Political decision for the closer operative cooperation (toward the Projects with operative deliverables) Ø Ø Leading centers => Responsible center Bottom-up => Top-down planning Ø Action Plan for implementation of (Working Group) Ø LACE 10 -years strategy Ø LACE Mo. U III 18 -21 Sept 2007 9 th COSMO meeting, Athens 32