Achievable Penetration Rates The Pace of Conservation Acquisition

Achievable Penetration Rates The Pace of Conservation Acquisition April 17, 2009 Conservation Resources Advisory Committee Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Outline in Two Parts n Part 1 – Revisions to Ramp Rate Assumptions n Part 2 – Sensitivity Testing slide 2 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Revisions: Tamping Down Max Annual Rates n Based on Comments & Further Thought slide 3 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Revisions: Industrial n Slowed down two important new measures: – From New Measure - Fast to New Measure - Medium » Energy Project Management » Integrated Plant Energy Management » Represent about 20% of industrial savings slide 4 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Revisions: Distribution Efficiency n n Formerly All at “New Measure - Medium” Now: Split by Measure Bundle – – slide 5 System Voltage by LDC method at New Measure - Fast System Voltage EOL method at New Measure - Slow Light System Improvements at New Measure - Slow Major System Improvements at New Measure - Slow Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Revisions: Commercial Measure LPD Package-New LPD Package-NR Lighting Controls Interior-New Lighting Controls Interior-NR Glass-Retro Demand Control Ventilation-NR Roof Insulation-NR Computer Servers and IT-Retro Street and Roadway Lighting-NR slide 6 30 -Mar Previous LO 20 Fast LO Medium LO Fast Retro in 20 Retro in 10 LO Slow LO Medium LO Fast Retro in 10 LO Slow LO Medium Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Residential n Consumer Electronics – New analysis adds 1000 MWa Potential over 20 years – LO Medium Ramp Rate ~ 30 MWa per year by 2014 n Heat Pump Water Heater – Emerging Technology Ramp Rate slide 7 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Results slide 8 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Lost-Opportunity slide 9 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Retrofit slide 10 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Comparative Max Rates 6 th PLAN 2014 2019 Lost-Opportunity @ $100/MWh 35 120 200 Retrofit @ $60/MWh 140 160 Total 175 280 360 5 th PLAN 2005 2009 2014 Lost-Opportunity @ $100/MWh 15 40 85 Retrofit @ $60/MWh 120 120 Total 135 160 205 slide 11 2010 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

slide 12 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Reality Check n n Achieved over 200 MWa in 2007 Expect higher in 2008 – Most programs exceed 2007 & NEEA too – Of the 200 MWa about 70 MWa was CFLs » But CFL savings not in 6 th Plan targets n n Many New Measures Higher Avoided Costs Federal Standards Push State Code Revisions in the Works slide 13 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

5 th Plan Targets Seemed Daunting 5 th Plan Targets (130 to 150 MWa) slide 14 Historic Performance Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Part 2: Ramp Rate Sensitivity Testing n Purpose: – What is the Value of Going Faster? – What is the Cost of Going Slower? – What are the Resource Consequences? – What are the Revenue Requirements? n Tool: Portfolio Model – Test Slow & Fast Achievable Penetration n Issue: What Ranges? slide 15 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Ramp Rate Sensitivity Testing Staff Proposal n Lost-Opportunity – SLOW: Up to $60 / MWh levelized cost – FAST: Up to $120 / MWh levelized cost n Non-Lost-Opportunity – SLOW: 5 th Plan Rate – FAST: Washington I-937 rate » All Cost-Effective in 10 years – evenly paced slide 16 Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Test Slow & Fast Deployment Rates Proposed Annual Maximum Limits on Deployment in MWa 2010 2014 2019 Lost-Opportunity SLOW 29 100 168 36 123 206 120 120 160 160 Up to $60/MWh Lost-Opportunity FAST Up to $120/MWh Non-Lost Opportunity SLOW 5 th Plan Maximum Non-Lost Opportunity FAST All Cost-Effective @$60/MWh in 10 years (I-937) slide 17 Northwest Power and Conservation Council