Academic contributions to natural resource management Ray Hilborn

Academic contributions to natural resource management Ray Hilborn School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington

University of Washington • 45, 000 students • 4, 351 faculty • 2 nd largest recipient of Federal research funding of all U. S. Universities

SAFS • 30 Faculty • 100 undergraduate majors • 100 graduate students masters and Ph. D.

A Research University Role • Teaching – degrees and short courses • Research – wide range relevant to fisheries management issues • Service – standing committees and ad hoc advisory roles

NOAA a special relationship • • • Pipeline for students 9/40 Funding for faculty salaries Students working on stock assessments Bi-weekly joint workshops Many other collaborations – Foreign post-docs – Year end money

Interaction in management system • Service on Science and Statistics Committees of Regional Councils – Punt and Anderson • Chairing ad-hoc science reviews • Serving and chairing NRC panels commissioned by government

Salmon research in Alaska • Bristol Bay freshwater salmon research – Initiated in 1947 – 5 Field camps on Wood River and Iliamna – Field research, Pt. Moller test fishery, work on forecasting

Program objectives • Provide scientific basis for sustainable management of the sockeye resource • Provide training for graduate and undergraduate students • Provide information useful to fishermen and processors (pre-season and in-season forecasts)

Funding Sources • Processing Industry since 1947 ($200, 000 per year) • U. S. Foundations ($14 million since 2002) • Bristol Bay Economic Development Corporation (community group) $2 million in last 10 years • National Science Foundation ($5 million since 2002)

Scope of program • Six faculty – Ray Hilborn, Tom Quinn, Daniel Schindler, Lorenz Hauser, Lisa Seeb, Jim Seeb • 3 staff • 7 graduate students • 5 -12 undergraduate students and assistants • 5 field camps in S. W. Alaska

Long term data sets • Physical factors, temperature, lake level, solar radiation • On-ground escapement counting – Age composition – validation of air counts • • Freshwater growth of sockeye Trends in sockeye food Competition with other species Predation by other species

BB OEG Study • Initiated by Board of Fisheries • Funded and organized by BBEDC • Hilborn and Anderson did the management strategy evaluation

Outer Port Heiden Study • Genetic sampling of catch in area of mixed stock fishing • Funding by BBEDC to provide data on whose fish are being caught • Main costs are vessel charter and genetic analysis of the data

Run reconstruction • Statistical models to estimate the stock composition in mixed stock fishing areas • Developed in our group – methods used by management agency • Ultimately we need to train the management agency staff to use the software

Status of fish stocks and what leads to good outcomes

Motivation All fish gone by 2048 Science 2006

More Motivation Pauly’s “status of fisheries” from catch data From Pauly 2007

The RAM Legacy data base

Typical data in RAM Legacy • Abundance, landings, and recruitment • Biological parameters, reference points such as MSY, BMSY, u. MSY or agency targets

Holdings by year of addition to the data base Year Entered 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Average Catch Number of stocks 1995 -2005 MT 10, 856, 350 179 5, 278, 401 162 8, 631, 999 6 2, 386, 349 11 3, 437, 709 78 30, 590, 808 436

Holdings by year of update in the data base Year Updated 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Average Catch Number of stocks 1995 -2005 MT 3, 610, 589 107 2, 887, 240 119 8, 631, 999 6 2, 367, 338 8 13, 093, 642 196 30, 590, 808 436

Coverage in the stock assessment data base (38% of global catch)

Geographic coverage • Well covered: US, Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Japan, Russia • Well covered: high seas tuna fisheries

Major gaps • China, Indonesia, India • Africa other than South Africa and NW Africa • Invertebrates, especially large squid fisheries

Forms of analysis • • • Trends in abundance Trends in fishing mortality Status relative to reference points Lost yield from overfishing or underfishing Factors leading to good outcomes Importance of regime shifts, lack of repeatable relationship between biomass and productivity

Major scientific results • Over 20 scientific papers showing that most stocks that are assessed are not collapsed or overfished and that overfished stocks will recover if fishing pressure reduced • Papers showing that environmental changes in productivity are common

Building a global network

Our objective • A global network of people and data bases • Provide on-line access to the best source of data on the status of fish stocks • Hold an annual meeting of the network to review new science

Summary • For an academic department to interact effectively with a management agency the academics must provide something not available to the agency – skills, people etc. • This requires interpersonal relationships and years of contact • Academics must always recognize that the agency has a role that you don’t try to usurp – particularly management advice!

More Summary • Benefits to the academics • Real problems and satisfaction of working in real world • Funding for the research • Jobs for the students