ABRUPT climate change Syd Partridge Shannon EESC Buckley
ABRUPT climate change Syd Partridge Shannon EESC Buckley W 4400 5 December 2006
definition: ‘transition of the climate system into a different state (of temperature, rainfall, and other aspects) on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing (mechanistic); change of the climate system that is faster than source: http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/paleo/abrupt/glossary. html
ocean convey or belt source: Hansen, et al. , Science 305 (13), 2004 triggers orbital forc ings
the last glaciation * d a n s g a a r d – o e s c h g e r (d/o) e v e ne t si n (n *h r i uc m h beevres)n t s (r e d s q u a r e s) *younger dryas source: Rahmstorf 2002
possible effects *regional cooling in nor th atlantic lasting hundr e * rdesg ioof n ya el adr rs oughtsand fl oods *likely strai n on food s e * gc luor b. I tayl e f f e c t s ?
the future UNCERT A I *Nm. To d. Ye l f l a w s *non–linea r* il tayc k o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y n e a r t* hl or e w sphrool bd as b i l i t y for n e x t 1 0 *0 e yv ei da er sn c e o f c i r c u l a t i o n decline?
Summary • Paleoclimate evidence suggests abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout Earth’s past. • Consequences of future abrupt climate change are possibly severe, but uncertainties in models and triggers are still very high. Future studies are ongoing to resolve these issues. • It is thought that increased greenhouse forcing from human activity is increasing the likelihood of abrupt climate change in
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