About these slides These slides were developed for

About these slides: These slides were developed for David Lam’s presidential address to the 2011 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, D. C. , April 1, 2011. They have been revised since the address to incorporate the U. N. ’s latest population estimates. The notes roughly follow the script of the presidential address. The slides are available for public use under the following conditions: 1. The original source must be acknowledged. 2. They are only to be used for educational purposes. 3. The slides can be modified and separated as long as the content is not substantially altered and each slide retains the author and title information at the bottom of the slide. Note that the slides are not intended to stand alone, but are to accompany the written version of the paper: David Lam, “How the world survived the population bomb: Lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history, ” Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, August 2011. Excellent research assistance in production of the paper and the slides was provided by Kendra Goostrey. David Lam Professor, Department of Economics Research Professor, Population Studies Center University of Michigan davidl@umich. edu http: //personal. psc. isr. umich. edu/~davidl/

How the World Survived the Population Bomb Lessons from 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History David Lam University of Michigan

World population is projected to reach 7 billion in 2011. We reached 6 billion in 1999. United Nations Population Division Estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Thomas Malthus 1766 -1834 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

1960 World population reached 3 billion Time Magazine January 1960 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

1963 World population growth reached 2. 2% per year. U. S. Census Bureau Estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

1968 Paul Ehrlich publishes The Population Bomb David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

How unusual was the demography of the 1960 s? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

World Population Doubling times 39 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

World Population Doubling times 39 years 70 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

World Population Doubling times 39 years 70 years 150 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

World Population Doubling times 39 years 70 years 150 years 500 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

World Population Doubling times 39 years 70 years 150 years 500 years 1200 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

World Population Doubling times What is the next number in this sequence? 39 years 70 years 150 years 500 years 1200 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion? a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion? a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion? a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 g. Over 1000 years? years David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion? a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years d. 60 years e. 100 years f. Over 100 years g. Over 1000 years? h. Forever? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

U. N. projections of world population to 2100 High, Medium, and Low Variants UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Annual growth rate of world population 1963 2. 19% (Census Bureau) 1968 2. 03% (UN) Census Bureau 2010 estimates and Pre-1950 projections 1. 15% estimates UN estimates and projections UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

The Demographic Transition David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Demographic Transition Southeast Asia Rate of Natural Increase Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate per 1000 population David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Demographic Transition Sub-Saharan Africa Birth rate Rate of Natural Increase Death rate per 1000 population David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Demographic Transition World Rate of Natural Increase per 1000 population Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Three Big Concerns 1. Would we be able to feed everyone? 2. Would we run out of resources? 3. Would poverty increase? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Food Production David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

“The world, especially the developing world, is rapidly running out of food…. In fact, the battle to feed humanity is already lost, in the sense that we will not be able to prevent large-scale famines in the next decade or so. ” - Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

World Food Production 1961 -1980 (1961=100) n o i ct u io d t a o l r u P p o d P o o F l n a t To d o o F a t i p Per Ca on i t c u d o r P Source: Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

“As the 1980’s begin, the growth in world production is losing momentum and its excess over population growth is narrowing. ” Lester Brown, Science 1981 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

World Food Production 1961 -2009 (1961=100) l. F d o o ta o T o r P on i t c u d o i t a l opu P n tion c u d n Pro pulatio d Foo Po d o o F a t i n ap durctio. C Proe d o o F P a it Per Cap n o i t c u d Pro al Tot Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Food Production in India David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

“My examination of the trend of India’s grain production over the last eighteen years leads me to the conclusion that the present 1967 -1968 production…is at a maximum level. ” -Louis H. Bean, quoted in Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

India Food Production 1961 -1990 (1961=100) n o i ct oo F l ota T d u d o Pr tio a l u op P n d o o F a it p a C r e P n o i t c u d Pro Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

“Since 1983, India’s rising grain production has lost momentum…. the country appears to be facing a catastrophic problem in the 1990 s. . . ” Paul Ehrlich & Anne Ehrlich The Population Explosion, 1990 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

India Food Production 1961 -2009 (1961=100) u d o r P d tal To n tio c u rod pulatio P d Po oo F tal o T n o i ct o o F o i t a l u p Po n n d o o F a t i p on r uctia e od. C r P P d o o F a Per Capit n o i t c u d o r P Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Food Production in Sub-Saharan Africa David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Sub-Saharan Africa Food Production io t la u p o 1961=100 P l a t o n u d ro n o i ct P d o o F T Per Capita Food Production David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. ” Yogi Berra and/or Neils Bohr David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Resource Depletion David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Julian Simon David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

“If you are prepared to pay me now the current market price for $1, 000 worth of any mineral you name, I will agree to pay you the market price of the same amount of that raw material on any future date you now specify. ” Julian Simon, 1981 The Ultimate Resource David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Julian Simon’s bet with Paul Ehrlich Total inflationadjusted cost fell from $1000 in 1980 to $618 in 1990 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Real prices of metals 1960 -2010 (1980=100) Nickel Simon-Ehrlich bet Copper Tin Chromium Tungste n Source: USGS David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Real commodity prices 1960 -2010 (1980=100) Food Non-Energy Source: World Bank David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Poverty David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Percent in Poverty Low and Middle Income Countries (in 2005 US dollars) < $2. 00 per day < $1. 25 per day excluding China World Bank estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Number in Poverty (Billions) Low and Middle Income Countries < $2. 00 per day < $1. 25 per day (excluding China) World Bank estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Percent in Poverty <$1. 25 per day Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia Latin America World Bank estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

How did we survive? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Economics 1. Market responses 2. Innovation 3. Globalization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Economics 1. Market responses 2. Innovation 3. Globalization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Vietnam Food Production 1981 -89 liberalizatio n d o o a. F it p a C r e P To Pr tal od Fo uc od tio n 1961=100 io t a l u p Po n n o i t c u d o r P Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Economics 1. Market responses 2. Innovation 3. Globalization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Norman Borlaug, “Father of the Green Revolution” 1970 Nobel Peace Prize Winner David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Productivity: Yield per hectare 1961=100 Wheat-India Wheat-World Rice-India Food and Agriculture Organization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Economics 1. Market responses 2. Innovation 3. Globalization David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Exports as % of GDP High income countries Low and Middle Income Countries World Bank estimates David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Demography 1. Urbanization 2. Fertility decline 3. Investments in children David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Demography 1. Urbanization 2. Fertility decline 3. Investments in children David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Urban and Rural Population World (billions) Total Urban Rural UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Demography 1. Urbanization 2. Fertility decline 3. Investments in children David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Total Fertility Rate World Decline of 47% from 1950 to 2010 Decline of 82% relative to replacement fertility UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Total Fertility Rate La Sub -Sa hara Afric n a tin So Sou th A eri uthe ca. A s a ia s sia t Am East Asia UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Why did fertility fall so rapidly? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

TFR by Wanted TFR 74 DHS countries N=185 TFR=1. 07(0. 12)+0. 98(0. 033) WT FR R 2=. 83 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Change in TFR by Change in Wanted TFR 43 DHS countries N=95 DTFR=0. 028(0. 006)+0. 829(0. 085) DWTFR R 2=. 466 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Demography 1. Urbanization 2. Fertility decline 3. Investments in children David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Percentage of cohort with primary schooling, Brazil Femal e Male Census data via IPUMSInternational David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Why did schooling increase so rapidly? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS) University of Cape Town – University of Michigan Major support from NICHD David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Enrollment rate of Africans who have not completed secondary school Cape Area Panel Study 2005 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Larger Cohorts and Smaller Families David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

The Transition from Quantity to Quality David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Years of schooling of 16 -17 year-olds, Brazil Census data via IPUMSInternational 2000 1991 1980 1970 1960 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Years of schooling of 16 -17 year-olds, Brazil 3. 34 increase 0. 98 increase Census data via IPUMSInternational 2000 1991 1980 1970 1960 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Have we really survived? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Mean annual temperature (Fahrenheit) Global average, 1880 -2010 Source: NASA David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, U. S. , 19002005 (1900=100) Source: Smith et al 2011 David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

Food Price Index (2000=100) Source: World Bank David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,

What will 2050 be like? David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center,