About ITFA The International Trade and Forfaiting Association

About ITFA The International Trade and Forfaiting Association, ITFA, previously known as IFA, is the worldwide trade association for companies, financial institutions and intermediaries engaged in trade and forfaiting. Founded in 1999, ITFA is an association made up of circa 300* members from all over the world. ITFA brings together banks and financial institutions who are engaged in originating and distributing trade related risk and finding creative ways to mitigate risks. Expanding from its original focus on the purchase and discounting of simple but robust payment instruments, such as negotiable instruments and letters of credit, the forfaiting industry has embraced new instruments and created new structures to become a prominent part of supply chain finance. ITFA acts as a valuable forum for its members to interact and transact business together profitably and safely.

ITFA represents the rights and interests of banks, financial institutions and service providers involved in trade risk and asset origination and distribution. ITFA, working with, and for, its members: Ø delivers unique opportunities for networking within a professional community Ø disseminates knowledge and provides education Ø contributes to creating a safe, transparent trade finance industry Ø co-operates with partner associations across the trade finance spectrum to promote the interests of its members and their treatment by regulators and legislators Ø is at the forefront of understanding current and emerging changes, challenges and opportunities in trade finance, and protecting the interests of the incumbents Ø continuously improves governance and best practice and shapes rules, laws and documentation that affect its members and the industry Ø attracts new skills and talent to the trade finance industry Ø facilitates the expansion of trade and trade finance globally

About FIBA is a non-profit trade association and international center for financial excellence. The Florida-BASED, and GLOBALLY CONNECTED, organization's membership includes the largest financial institutions from Europe, the United States, Latin America and the Caribbean. .

OUR TEAM Member Services Tania Maysonet tmaysonet@fiba. net Operations Engineer Pedro L. Lantigua plantigua@fiba. net Conference & Events Registrations Nina Guillen guillen@fiba. net Alexander J. Brown Front-End Developer abrown@fiba. net Institute Director Sofia Villalobos svillalobos@fiba. net Director of Conferences Belkis Lopez blopez@fiba. net

BEFORE WE BEGIN We will send you the link and ppt of the recording after the event Submit your questions anytime. We’ll do Q&A all throughout Please complete the exit survey, we appreciate your input!

Latin America - entering the brave new world of novel uncertainties Political Scene and Economic Scenario Ø Regional successes and failures in responding to the pandemic and its economic fallout Ø How COVID-19 and the Great Lockdown will reshape political power in Latin America? Ø What is on the economic horizon for the region in the wake of COVID-19 for the next 12 to 18 months Ø What critical new political and economic alliances are likely to emerge in the region as a result?

Latin America - entering the brave new world of novel uncertainties NICHOLAS WATSON Managing Director Teneo JUAN FRANCISCO NEYRA-BOSCH Regional Country and Credit Risk Manager Chubb

NICHOLAS WATSON, Managing Director, Teneo Nicholas Watson leads Teneo’s political risk coverage for Spanishspeaking Latin America. Nicholas has over 15 years’ experience creating and leading analytic teams dedicated to providing exceptional, actionable political intelligence, bespoke consulting and advisory work for a wide range of corporate, financial and governmental clients.

JUAN FRANCISCO NEYRA-BOSCH, Regional Country and Credit Risk Manager, Chubb Juan Francisco Neyra-Bosch is the Latin America Regional Country and Credit Risk Manager at the Political Risk and Credit business unit of Chubb Global Markets. At Chubb Juan Francisco covers political and economic and credit analysis in Latin America, including sovereign, sub-sovereign risk and corporate risks. He is also in charge of bank risks across Latin America and EMEA.

Latin America - entering the brave new world of novel uncertainties • JF Neyra-Bosch • Regional Country and Credit Risk Manager, Chubb Global Markets

Health Expenditures / Population density 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 ru Pe ico ex M a. R st Co lo Co % GDP ica a m bi ile Ch zil Br a in nt ge Ar OE C D a 0 USD PPP/cap Sources: OECD, WHO, Demographia World Urban Areas

Hosp Beds density Physician density 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 AR UY PA BR CL PE Country DO MX EC Dev Countries CO SV PY BO Latin America Source: CIA World Factbook. Density defined a #/1 k pop CR HO GT 0 UY AR MX BR CO EC Country BO PA SV Dev Countries DO PY PE Latin America CR CL GT HO

Sources: Latinbarómetro 2018, EIU

Fiscal Space: only Chile and Peru were comfortable ahead of the shock

Financial and commodity markets since 20. 02. 2020

Monetary and Fiscal Response Sources: Bloomberg, IMF

70 AR BR CL CO MX PE Sources: Oxford University, Google Mobility Report 5. 13. 2020 5. 11. 2020 5. 9. 2020 5. 7. 2020 5. 5. 2020 5. 3. 2020 5. 1. 2020 4. 29. 2020 4. 27. 2020 4. 25. 2020 4. 23. 2020 4. 21. 2020 4. 19. 2020 4. 17. 2020 4. 15. 2020 4. 13. 2020 4. 11. 2020 4. 9. 2020 4. 7. 2020 4. 5. 2020 4. 3. 2020 4. 1. 2020 Lockdowns: policies and behaviour Oxford Stringency Index 100 95 90 85 80 75

Covid-19, current situation Sources: JHU, Oxford Analytica, Bloomberg

Latam: GDP growth expectations Source: Consensus as reported in Bloomberg

Known Unknowns • Is the region ready for loosening restrictions? • Global risk appetite – second global sell off? • Geopolitics – the future of global trade • Argentina, Brazil, Mexico: problems before the pandemic • From the pandemic to an endemic virus?

NICHOLAS WATSON Managing Director Teneo JUAN FRANCISCO NEYRA-BOSCH Regional Country and Credit Risk Manager Chubb nicholas. watson@teneo. com Juan. Neyra@Chubb. com

Q&A

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