ABND in Mongolia Rapid assessment protocol RAP results
ABND in Mongolia: Rapid assessment protocol (RAP), results of the costing and preliminary considerations on the fiscal space Ms. Celine Peyron Bista, Chief Technical Advisor, MAPS Project, ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific and Dr. G. Enkhbayar, Professor of Public Management Academy
Government budget income
Government budget expenditure 16000 60% 14000 50% 12000 40% 10000 8000 30% 6000 20% 4000 10% 2000 0 2008 year Government expenditure budget 2516 38% % GDP Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 2009 year 2436 37% 2010 year 3081 37% 2011 year 4997 49% 2012 year 5994 40% 2013 year 6178 35% 2014 year 7312 35% 2015 year 7691 31% 2016 year 7875 29% 2017 year 8401 28% 2018 2019 2020 year 10874 12533 13545 30% 30% 0%
Government expenditure for social protection 1400 Welfare expenditure Subsidies for deficits' of Social insurance fund HDF and MDF 1200 1000 330 315 302 693, 7 289 800 268 274 252 733, 1 269 600 89, 7 400 320 277, 6 89, 9 272, 4 294, 6 233, 3 2012 2013 341 348, 2 372 396 422 446 145, 9 139 189, 1 200 170, 6 218, 7 244, 2 99, 3 285, 8 298, 8 309 334 272, 8 320 264, 8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 131, 9 0 2008 2009 2010 2011
Social protection expenditure Халамжийн зардал НДС-ийн алдагдал МУХС, ХХС low 1800 1600 1400 472, 1 409, 8 1200 331, 9 260, 3 1000 138, 9 733, 1 269 600 400 81, 9 693, 7 800 89, 9 139 89, 7 277, 6 145, 9 200 218, 7 244, 2 2008 2009 0 170, 6 199, 4 252 268 274 289 320 341 348, 2 372 302 315 396 422 446 272, 4 294, 6 233, 3 264, 8 272, 8 285, 8 298, 8 309 320 334 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 189, 1 99, 3 131, 9 2010 2011 330
Нийгмийн хамгааллын санхүүжилт Халамжийн зардал НДС-ийн алдагдал МУХС, ХХС high 2500 2000 800, 5 1500 678, 4 571, 7 479, 6 323 1000 186, 9 693, 7 733, 1 500 89, 9 89, 7 139 145, 9 218, 7 244, 2 2008 2009 0 277, 6 170, 6 269 99, 3 2010 2011 289 302 315 330 268 274 341 396 422 320 372 446 348, 2 252 272, 4 294, 6 233, 3 264, 8 272, 8 285, 8 298, 8 309 320 334 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 189, 1 131, 9 404, 5
Social protection budget, % % GDP % Government Expenditure 24, 1 23, 6 23, 3 21 20 19, 7 17, 8 17, 5 17, 3 17, 4 13, 4 12, 9 9, 5 7, 3 6, 8 12, 2 11, 4 2009 12, 4 11, 5 12, 2 11, 4 12, 3 11, 4 10, 5 9, 3 8, 6 9, 6 8, 4 8, 8 8, 2 2, 5 6, 5 4, 5 2008 % Government Revenue 2010 2011 2012 2013 3, 9 2014 3, 6 2015 3, 3 2016 3, 2 2017 2, 8 2019 2020
Social protection budget (% of GDP) % without SPF low scenario high scenario 9, 5 8, 6 7, 3 6, 8 6, 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4, 9 4, 2 3, 6 4, 8 4, 3 3, 9 4, 5 2014 2015 4, 8 4, 1 4 3, 3 2016 4, 4 3, 7 3, 2 2017 2, 8 2019 4, 2 3, 5 4, 3 3, 6 2, 5 2020
Нийгмийн хамгааллын төсөв төсвийн орлогод эзлэх хувь 18, 5 17, 9 17, 5 17, 4 high 24, 1 23, 6 23, 3 low 16, 7 14, 9 13, 4 14, 1 13, 4 12, 2 15, 6 15, 1 12, 4 12, 2 15, 6 13, 2 12, 3 10, 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 14, 8 15, 1 12, 5 9, 6 2019 8, 8 2020
Social protection budget & GDP low High 21 20 19, 7 17, 8 17, 3 16, 7 17, 1 14, 5 11, 4 15, 7 14 12, 9 13, 3 12, 5 11, 4 14, 5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 14, 1 11, 7 8, 4 8, 2 12, 3 9, 3 2008 13, 8 2019 2020
Social protection expenditures (% to GDP) Countries 2011 2012 2013 1 Nepal 2. 31 2. 19 2 Cambodia 1. 79 2. 23 3 Kenya 2. 61 3. 26 4 Haiti - 3. 27 5 Tajikistan 5. 31 6 Armenia 8. 46 7 Mongolia - 8. 87 8 South Korea 9. 14 9. 30 9 Kirgizstan 8. 30 9. 58 10 Chili 10. 18 10. 43 11 Russia 15. 97 - 12 Poland 20. 51 20. 94 13 USA 19. 56 20. 03 14 Hungary 21. 92 21. 56 15 Germany 25. 89 26. 18 16 Finland 29. 22 30. 53 17 France 32. 02 33. 02 18 Asia Pacific average 5. 3 19 World average 8. 8 8. 6 6. 75 8. 61 -
Inflation 30 target real 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Millions Payment of external debts 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 Хүүгийн төлбөр Үндсэн төлбөр 14
The revenue of Mongolian Government Budget from commodity prices is likely not to increase:
Thank for your attention
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