AAPG International Conference and Exhibition Cape Town South
AAPG International Conference and Exhibition Cape Town, South Africa October, 2008 Workforce Observations Scott W. Tinker President American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin Tinker, 2008
Observations n n n Demographics Cycles Balance and Bridges Tinker, 2008
Tinker, 2008 Age Demographics Developing Nations 180 160 140 Population (mm) 120 100 80 60 40 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 20 Age Source: UN Website Brazil '03 India '01 Saudi '04 Mexico '03
Tinker, 2008 Age Demographics Developed Nations 180 Population (mm) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Age Source: UN Website Russia '04 China '00 France/UK '04 US '04
Tinker, 2008 Age Demographics 180 160 Developed nations are “older” 140 Population (mm) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Age Source: UN Website Developed Developing
Tinker, 2008 Geopolitical Shift Young Old 407 Q Source: National Petroleum Council, 2007
Observations n n n Demographics Cycles Balance and Bridges Tinker, 2008
Tinker, 2008 35, 000 30, 000 25, 000 20, 000 15, 000 10, 000 5, 000 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 World Oil Production (Thousand Barrels) Oil Price Average in $/bbl Inflation Adjusted 2007 Source: 1980 -2007 Energy Information Administration As of January 2008 (www. eia. doe. gov/pub/international/iealf/crudeoilreserves. xls ), 1950 -1980 OPEC (http: //www. opec. org/library/) $100. 00 $90. 00 $80. 00 $70. 00 $60. 00 $50. 00 $40. 00 $30. 00 $20. 00 $10. 00 $0. 00 Oil Price ($2007) Global Annual Production (mbo) Global Oil
Tinker, 2008 Oil and Economy GDP Growth (Percentage points at annual rates) Crude Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($2000) 100. 00 90. 00 8 80. 00 70. 00 6 60. 00 4 50. 00 40. 00 2 30. 00 0 20. 00 1970 -2 1975 1980 1985 Year 1990 1995 2000 2005 10. 00 Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($2007) GDP Growth (% points at annual rates) 10 0. 00 -4 Data: BP, EIA February 2007. US Department of Commerce
Energy-Economy Cycles • Global oil demand/supply (D/S) is tight • Currencies are strong or weak • Speculators hedge against currencies by buying oil • Tight D/S and speculation drive up the price of oil • High price dampens energy demand • Lower D/S, excess production capacity (short term), weak economy drive oil price down • Global interdependence impacts global markets • Lower oil prices help stabilize the economy • and… Tinker, 2008
Tinker, 2008 Department of Geosciences, University of Texas Total Masters Oil Price 2000 $ $60. 00 $50. 00 $40. 00 $30. 00 $20. 00 $10. 00 $0. 00
Tinker, 2008 Department of Geosciences, University of Texas Total Ph. D. s Oil Price 2000 $ $60. 00 $50. 00 $40. 00 $30. 00 $20. 00 $10. 00 $0. 00
Tinker, 2008 Compound Cycles 90. 00 1. 7 mm US Undergrad Enrollments in Geoscience (1000) 80. 00 70. 00 30 60. 00 1. 1 mm 50. 00 20 40. 00 30. 00 10 20. 00 10. 00 0. 7 mm Oil Domestic Wellhead Price ($2007) 100. 00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Employees Large O&G Co US Upstream R&D 2004 Dollars CERA Data: BP, EIA February 2007. US Department of Commerce
Observations n n n Demographics Cycles Balance and Bridges Tinker, 2008
HOW EASY IS IT TO MANAGE DUAL CAREERS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY? Tinker, 2008 Percent Age group 0 20 40 60 80 100 18 -24 25 -34 35 -44 45 -54 55+ All 18 -24 25 -34 35 -44 45 -54 No problems at all Difficult but possible 55+ All 18 -24 25 -34 35 -44 45 -54 55+ All From Chadud, N. , Tealdi, L. , Howe, S. , and Sprunt, E. , 2007, How companies attract and retain talented engineers whose spouses have careers, in Talent & Technology, v. 1, no. 4, p. 5– 10. Very difficult or impossible QAd 6422
Dual Career Challenges Goal: Reverse the trend of decreasing women in energy sciences throughout a full career • Maintaining a science edge in the “part time” years • Separating what we want to do from what we are willing to do • Reverse discrimination • Precedent setting and consistency of policies • Avoiding flexibility dysfunction Tinker, 2008
Bridge Industry, Government, Academe Ø Complex global issues pose technological and social challenges requiring an integrated approach Ø Each sector has different time scales for decision making, and are motivated by different opportunities Ø Science, policy and commercialization are critical partners for the future Ø Bridge across the canyons and peaks Tinker, 2008
Summary: It Takes a Team! Policy Maker! Industry! Student! Tinker, 2008
Summary Concepts Ø Fossil fuels are essential for many decades Ø Price volatility is likely; must enjoy change Ø Global demographics are evolving Ø Talent is the fundamental priority Government/industry/academe must work together to bridge across the cycles in order to create a stable environment that attracts and retains the best talent in the world. Tinker, 2008
Tinker, 2008 A career in the energy industry is exciting, challenging, rewarding and at times terrifying! You cannot find a more meaningful issue on which to work for the coming century than global energy. Period. Get after it! http: //www. great-lakes. net/teach/history/macbridge/mac_2. html
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